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July 2019
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Economy: Structurally Stable; Slowing Growth•
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2.4 2.9 3.2
3.8 4.3
7.5
9.3
15.7
9.3
1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4
4.4 5.3
8.1
3.8
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
GNPA (%) NNPA (%)
55
.5
52
.4
48
.8
45
.8
45
.5
42
.8
45
.3
49
.9
60
.6
FY1
1
FY1
2
FY1
3
FY1
4
FY1
5
FY1
6
FY1
7
FY1
8
FY1
9
PCR (%)
Source: Financial Stability Report, RBI, June 2019
Economy: Structurally Stable; Slowing Growth
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-4.3
17.2
22.7
11.5 11.3
6.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vehicle loans YoY growth (%)
Source: RBI
15
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Dilemma……
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Source: Motilal Oswal (MOFSL), June 25, 2019, Bloomberg
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Sectoral Themes: Banks & Financial Services
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Sectoral Themes: Information Technology
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19e CY20e
IT Services Growth
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
TCV Of deals (US$ bn)
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
IT Revenue growth
Sectoral Themes: Telecom and Construction
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20T
Highway Project awarded (Km)
Highway KMs
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
ARPU (Rs/sub/Month)
Sectoral Themes: Cement
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Sectoral Themes: Oil & Gas
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Global oil demand and supply forecast
mmbpd CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20
IEA
Global supply* 93.6 96.7 96.9 97.4 100.1 NA NA
Global demand 93.4 95.3 96.5 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.7
Demand growth 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4
EIA
Global supply 93.8 97.0 97.4 98.1 100.7 100.9 102.8
Global demand 93.6 95.4 96.9 98.5 99.9 101.1 102.6
Demand growth 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4
* IEA only forecast non-OPEC supply growth and assume difference between its demand forecast and non-OPEC supply forecast as call on OPEC
Source: International Energy Agency
Sectoral themes
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Disclaimer
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