predicting sea level rise impacts on hawaiis anchialine pool ecosystems lisa marrack uc berkeley ala...
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Predicting Sea Level Rise Impacts on Hawaii’s Anchialine Pool Ecosystems
Lisa MarrackUC Berkeley
Ala Kahakai National Historical Park
Sea Level Rise
Sea level is expected to rise between 0.5 to 1.6m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Vermeer&Rahmstorf 2009)
Observed
Water Withdrawal and Non-Point Source Pollution
http:/www.yfrog.com/gzt4wyrj
• Coastal inundation• Storm run up• Habitat shifts
Ali’i Drive, Kona, HI
March 11, 2011
Predicted Impacts
Figure by: Jonathan D. Craft, Auburn University
Anchialine Pools
Scott Santos
The Spirit of Kaloko-HonokohauCultural and Natural Resources
Megalagrion xanthomelas Metabetaeus lohena & Halocaridina rubra
Questions
• What coastal features will be inundated by 2100 along the west coast of Hawaii due to a 1 meter sea level rise?
• Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge within the arid coastline of west Hawaii?
Questions
DATA
FEMA – Lidar 2006
• Average point distance is 3 ft
• 1074 tiles on Big Island
• 500,000 bare earth pts /tile
• ± 0.51 ft vertical accuracy (95% CI)
Elevation Data
Kaloko Honokohau National Historical Park
Geospatial anchialine pool data -abiotic and biotic (Marrack & Beavers 2009)
High Tide
2.28ft
Sea Level Rise (1 m)
3.28 ft
(5.57 ft)
Sea Level Rise + High Tide
5.57 ft
(5.57 ft)
Where will we expect new anchialine pool habitats to emerge?
Inundation of pools by 2100
81% of 194 current pools will be inundated by 1 m SLR at High Tide
Inundation of pools by 2100
(5.57 ft)
Future and Present Pools
(5.57 ft)
• Include archaeological features, wetlands, fishponds
• Expand analysis within Ala Kahakai NHP corridor
• Make products available to researchers, managers, and planners
What next?
1) What are the distribution and dispersal patterns of invasive M. lar in anchialine pools in the State of Hawaii?
- population genetics of M. lar populations - stream and anchialine pools Hawaii, Guam, French Polynesia
2) What are the relative and combined impacts of M lar, invasive fishes (poeciliids, Tilapia) and elevated nutrients on anchialine pool habitats?
- expand spatial coverage of surveys- experimental manipulations - nutrient flow through food web (isotopes)
Distribution, dispersal, and impacts of the introduced Macrobrachium lar within anchialine
pool ecosystems
Mahalos
Rick Gmirkin & Arik Arakaki - Ala Kahakai National Historical Park, Sallie Beavers-NPS, Delwyn Oki-USGS, Eric Grossman-USGS, Rebecca Most-UH Hilo, Scott Santos – Auburn University
Macrobrachium lar study
Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool
July 2010 & July 2011
25n, 6 sites
147n, 8 sites
15n, 2 sites
52n, 6 sites
47n, 4 sites
Macrobrachium lar study
Samples• Stream – Mike Blum, Tulane Univ. >300 n• Samoa – NPS 20 n• Anchialine Pool
July 2010 & July 2011
65n, Ohiki Makalawena Mauna Lani Halape Kapoho Puako (1)
Successful PCR with 1 COI primer set.
Several sequences produced
MORE NEEDED!
Ron Kwok, 2009, NASA/JPL
DATA
Local Tidal DatumKawaihae/Hilo
Lidar Vertical Datum
0 Mean Sea Level
2.29 ft (0.698 m) Highest Observed Tide
3.28 ft 1 m Sea Level Rise
5.57 ft (1.698m) Sea Level Rise + High Tide
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