predictions 2010

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Predictions2010

Cloudy with A Chance of Alarm

Michael CairnsInformation Media PartnersJanuary 2010

© Michael Cairns: Use with Attribution only

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Better or Worse?

During 2009 Book Publishing a winner– Contrast: Magazines, newspapers, some television

No ‘resurrection’ during 2009

Executives guarded about immediate future

Anticipated short to medium term problems with education and library funding

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Maturing Macro Trends

Educational segment development– Electronic content and applications– Testing, assessment– Increasing not slowing– “New” not migrated products– Speak about “databases” and “subscriptions”

Paid subscription models– Experimentation: Disney– Bullying: NewsCorp– Attempts to separate advertising and subscriber web models

Experimentation with “communities”– BusinessWeek exchange– Nature.com– Tor.com– Harlequin

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What hasn’t happened

No trade consolidation– Anticipated for several years

Far less Merger/Acquisition activity– Mismatch: Valuations and expectations– Big names on market for extended period

Collaboration across the supply chain– Friction with Amazon & pricing– Physical book retailing heightens problems

Institutional knowledge leveraged

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Macro Predictions 2010

E-Books– 2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’– End of 2010: The Cloud– Google Editions– Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content

will be defining– Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of

ownership– E-Content rather than E-Books– E-Content another format option

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Macro Predictions 2010

Are the Libraries my Friend?– Mobile and remote access awakening threat to

trade publishers– Content aggregators build relations with

Publishers– Requirement for more research on patron use

of content– Implies an industry wide ‘re-think’ of library

sales model– Challenges definition of ‘purchase’ and ‘loan’

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Macro Predictions 2010

Content silos: How trade build community– Subject specific content silos– Publishers license ancillary and related content: Drive

repeat traffic• Encyclopedia• Reference• News content• Seminars/How to’s/ interactive modules, etc.

– Become sites within sites: Build community with consumers

– Build other services– Over time create broader types of content to support silos– Trade titles/imprints with other publishers

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Micro Predictions 2010

Library market challenged through mid 2011– Retention, renewal, pricing difficult– Perhaps some vendor consolidation as a result

Return of collaboration between magazines and traditional publishers– Return of serial and short story: Magazines need ready-made

content– Trade-off for publishers: Magazines offer targeted marketing

Year of warfare– Publishers vs. retailers, wholesalers vs. retailers, retailers vs.

retailers, publishers vs. consumers Consolidation of trade houses As magazines migrate on-line they will need more content

and journalists will be there: Magazines outsource editorial

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