predictionsfor tropical · fri 10/18 290 1 230c thunderstorms 13.77 mm sat 10/19 280 240c...
Post on 04-Jul-2020
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P r e d i c t . P e r f o r m . P r o f i t .
Probabilistic rainfallpredictions for tropical
agriculture in West AfricaAndreas Vallgren, PhD
Chief Science Officer, Co-founder andreas.vallgren@ignitia.se
PERFORMANCE OF GLOBAL NWP MODELS NO BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGY…
TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTING & UNCERTAINTY
29 May 2018
18 Oct 2019
TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTING & UNCERTAINTY
actual (48h later)
THE NEED FOR REGIONAL MODELING
Reliability: compares each chance category(i.e. 0%, 30%, 60%, 90%) against how manytimes it actually rained for each category.
RELIABILITY COMPARISON: IGNITIA ENSEMBLE VS NCEP GFS
Land planning Crop planning Seed purchase
Fertilizer Sowing Labour
Chemicals Harvest Pack and Transport
SOLVES CRITICAL TIMING PROBLEMS FOR A FARMER
CREATES RESILIEN
CE
RISK REDUCTI
ON
ENHANCES FOOD
SECURITY
INCREASES INCOME
TechnologyPartnerships
& Awards
Industry Recognition
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