present status of software for site specific fertilizer recommendations and future outlook for...

Present Status of Software for Site Specific Fertilizer Recommendations

and Future Outlook for improving its Scope and Precision

Crop Production Regions in Punjab

CPR-1(Cotton-Wheat)

Multan, Lodhran, Khanewal, Vehari, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, D.G.Khan

CPR-2(Rice-Wheat)

Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujrat, Mandi Baha-ud-Din

CPR-3(Mixed Crops)

Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Okara, Kasur, Lahore, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Jhang, Chiniot, Sargodha

CPR-4 ( Thal)(Pulses-Wheat)

Layyah, Bhakkar, Khushab, Mianwali

CPR-5 (Rainfed)(Maize-Wheat/Oilseeds)

Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Islamabad

Soil Fertility status of Punjab soils

Organic Matter (%)

Available Phosphorus(%)

Available Potassium(%)

Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High

CPR-I 86 13 1 74 23 3 11 29 60

CPR-II 77 19 4 78 20 2 28 48 24

CPR-III 81 16 3 65 30 5 8 46 46

CPR-IV 91 8 1 85 13 2 65 32 3

CPR-V 85 13 2 86 12 2 19 66 15

ZONE Zn B Fe Cu COTTON 37 50 localized 5

RICE 81 31 localized localized

CENTRAL 49 Localized Localized Localized

RAINFED 66 55 15 4

CITRUS 82 Localized 71 18

MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY (%)

Summarized N balance Sheet

Nitrogen (Kg/ha)Year

85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I

-14.8 8.6 -7.2 3.6 2.9CPR-II

-12.3 -2.0 -19.7 0.2 5.7CPR-III

-10.2 7.6 -9.6 -9.6 -19.7CPR-IV

-7.4 -8.2 -13.1 -16.2 -11.6CPR-V

-18.3 -18.9 -14.6 -25.4 -25.4Punjab

-12.4 2.4 -6.6 -3.8 -9.1

Summarized P balance Sheet

Phosphorus (Kg/ha)Year

85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I

-12.7 -12.8 -24.9 -25.1 -26.5CPR-II

-12.1 -13.1 -23.2 -21.2 -25.1CPR-III

-12.2 -12.0 -23.3 -28.7 -33.0CPR-IV

-7.1 -8.6 -14.2 -17.2 -15.9CPR-V

-8.3 -9.3 -10.8 -17.3 -19.9Punjab

-11.4 -11.8 -19.8 -22.5 -27.0

Summarized K balance Sheet

Potassium (Kg/ha)Year

85-86 95-96 00-01 05-06 08-09CPR-I

-28.8 -35.0 -50.1 -56.4 -62.6CPR-II

-7.0 -4.0 -38.5 -41.1 -50.7CPR-III

-26.5 -30.5 -51.1 -71.3 -82.7CPR-IV

-22.7 -28.0 -32.8 -44.6 -32.4CPR-V

-35.1 -37.9 -32.8 -50.3 -55.6Punjab

-24.2 -27.9 -45.6 -56.5 -63.5

Use of N, P & K (Kg/ ha) in Punjab

Year Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium

71-72 20.1 2.2 -

79-80 43.0 12.4 0.4

89-90 70.3 19.2 2.0

99-00 93.7 26.0 0.7

04-05 116.5 38.8 1.4

05-06 124.8 36.8 1.2

06-07 107.0 41.0 1.9

07-08 120.8 26.0 1.2

08-09 124.4 27.2 1.1

09-10 148.3 36.2 1.0

10-11 132.0 32.5 1.4

CPR Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11

CPR N P K

CPR-1 161.5 38.6 0.93

CPR-2 133.3 23.7 0.70

CPR-3 148.0 27.1 1.28

CPR-4 42.2 10.1 0.19

CPR-5 52.3 6.2 0.01

Punjab 132.0 32.5 1.42

District Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11

District N P KMultan 280.4 65.7 1.4

M. Garh 98.7 19.9 0.8

Gujranwala 176.0 30.5 0.9

M. B. Din 128.4 24.2 1.4

Okara 195.9 30.0 2.2

Sargodha 92.4 20.1 0.8

Layyah 99.8 28.8 0.6

Bhakkar 28.6 6.1 0.1

Jhelum 91.8 18.3 0.03

Chakwal 10.6 1.7 -

Fertilizer Recommendations for Wheat over the Years

 Irrigated 

 Rain-fed

Soil Type poor Medium FertileProgressive

Farmers <350 mm 350-500 mm >500 mm

Year N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K N: P: K

1973   114: 85: 0          

1985-86 136: 111: 57 114: 67: 57 84: 57: 57  57 :57:

57 84: 57: 57 114: 57: 57

1993-94 136: 114: 62 114: 84: 62 84: 57: 62 158: 114: 6257: 57:

62 84: 57: 64 114: 84: 62

2004 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62      

2006-07 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 6257: 57:

62 84: 57: 62 114: 57: 62

2007-08 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62      

2008-09 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62      

2009-10 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62 158: 114: 62      

2010-11 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62  57: 57:

30 114: 114: 30 114: 114: 30

2011-12 130: 114: 62104: 84:

62 79: 57: 62        

References: Agriculture department, Govt. of Punjab; Agricultural Research Council

Nutrient off take vs. yield of major crops in Punjab

Wheat Maize Cotton Rice S.Cane0

10

20

30

40

50

Pe

rce

nt

in

cre

as

e

Percent increase in Yield by Balanced Fertilizer

Projected Impact of Balanced Fertilization in Punjab, on 50 % area, 2009-10

Impact Wheat Rice sugarcane Maize Cotton Total

Area (000 ha) 6914.7 1634.6 574.0 366.3 1975.00 11464.6

% of cultivated area of Punjab 41.56 9.82 3.45 2.20 11.87 68.90

Additional Yield (000 tons) 5342.2 2615.5 11290.4 626.6 1659.00

Financial Gain (Rs 000 million) 126.88 69.99 28.23 10.65 42.51 278.26

Variation in Fert. Consumption (000 tons) :N 20.33 -16.55 23.40 24.91 68.65 120.74

:P 268.86 51.20 25.97 26.33 57.02 429.38

:K 109.84 43.81 35.52 22.67 97.26 309.11

Additional Fertilizer cost (Rs 000 million) 33.93 8.54 6.39 5.26 16.46 70.59

Net Gain (Rs 000 million) 92.94 61.45 21.83 5.39 26.38 208.00

Note: Calculation covered 100% wheat area; 84% rice area; 95.5% sugarcane area; 68.5% maize and 81.1% cotton area of Punjab

Soil Test Based Fertilizer Recommendations:

To improve the yield at the same level of inputs

OR To decrease the amount of inputs at the same

level of yield

WE MUST MOVE TO:

OBJECTIVES OF PROJECTOBJECTIVES OF PROJECT

Collection and synthesis of available fertilizer trials data.

Software development for site-specific recommendations and dissemination through CDs and access to web.

Diagnostic survey for low adoption of fertilizer use technology and imbalance use of nitrogen and phosphorus.

COLLECTION AND PROCESSING OF DATA

• Collection of relevant reports, research papers, hand outs and personal communication for last 10 years.

• Extraction of fertilizer trials data (yield with soil analysis) separately for each district.

• Selection of treatments with balanced NP graded doses

• Processing of data for modeling and development of software

• Verification of predictions with original treatments• Uploading of soft ware on the web.

Prediction Models on the WebPrediction Models on the Web

Prediction models for soil analysis based fertilizer

recommendations(N&P) have been completed for all the

districts of Punjab for wheat crop and relevant districts

for rice(12 districts) and maize(7 districts) crops which

are available on Web:

http://www.fertilizeruaf.pk

Similar models for Sugarcane crop will be on the web up

to mid September.

Models for cotton crop will be completed before the end

of this year.

Involvement of stakeholdersInvolvement of stakeholders

August 2011: Internal review by Vice Chancellor and his team

September 2011: Meeting of stakeholders i.e. Agri. Research, Agri. Extension,

Fertilizer Companies, UAF experts October 2011: Review by Secretary Agriculture and

his team November 2011: Stakeholders workshop – Attended by

Field staff of Agri. Extension, Research and Fertilizer companies working in Multan and their heads, Farmers from Multan, UAF experts.

Training of Field officersTraining of Field officers

Training of nominees of DOs Agri. Extension for use of Fertilizer Prediction models for imparting awareness to the farming community of their district.

Training of nominees of Soil Fertility Laboratories in Punjab for using the Fertilizer Prediction Models for giving recommendations on the basis of Soil analysis.

Validation Fertilizer Trials, MultanValidation Fertilizer Trials, Multan

Stakeholders Conference in Nov, 2011

Dr. Shahid Mahmood Dir. Soil Fertility- Focal Person

Plan of trials: 0-0, 50-25, 75-40, 100-50, 125-65, 150-75, 175-85, 200-100

Allocation of trials: Soil Fertility-8, Agri. Extension-9, Engro Fertilizer-3, FFC-2, Jaffer Brother-3, Fatima Fertilizer-6

Results of some trials discussed:

Munawwar Hussain, Moza Mansoor Pur, Jalalpur Pirwala

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

17050 0

0 0

289450 25

52 27

346875 40

82 42

3939100 50

96 47

4255125 65

102 50

4552150 75

109 54

4774175 85

116 59

4674200 100

114 54

Lal Muhammad, Haveli Lang, Moza Thelan, Jalalpur Pirwala

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

16080 0

0 0

263250 25

37 17

312675 40

67 35

3458100 50

84 35

3781125 65

101 49

3929150 75

106 54

4006175 85

109 54

4046200 100

109 54

Umar Farooq Chattha, Moza Baghdar Wala, Makhdoom Rasheed

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

18710 0

0 0

294350 25

47 25

348075 40

77 40

3907100 50

91 45

4257125 65

97 49

4517150 75

103 52

4761175 85

111 57

4881200 100

116 57

Muhammad Aleem, Shah Pur Ubha, Shujabad

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

19320 0

0 0

284150 25

49 25

328575 40

77 37

3677100 50

96 47

4063125 65

102 51

4386150 75

108 54

4689175 85

116 57

4909200 100

128 64

Muhammad Ishaque, Chak 86-M, Jalalpur Pirwala

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

29560 0

49 27

312950 25

57 30

382275 40

91 44

3953100 50

101 52

3410125 65

69 37

3446150 75

69 37

3045175 85

49 27

3650200 100

79 40

Mohammad Nasir, Moza Jalalabad, Makhdoom Rasheed

Wheat Yield(Kg/ha)

Applied N(Kg/ha)

Applied P(Kg/ha)

Predicted N(Kg/ha)

Predicted P(Kg/ha)

18820 0

0 0

287550 25

52 30

314675 40

69 35

3461100 50

84 42

3825125 65

101 49

4167150 75

121 62

4479175 85

134 67

4893200 100

141 71

DEFICIENCIES IN THE DATA

1. Uneven distribution of trials leading to less no of observations in certain districts:

i. Wheat:

ii. Rice

iii. Maize

iv. Sugarcane

Number of trials for wheat

District No of trials

Districts No of Trials

Districts No of Trials

Faisalabad 171 Muzaffargarh 44 Layyah 23

Bahawalnagar 143 Narowal 42 D.G.Khan 23

Multan 132 T.T.Singh 39 kasur 20

Bahawalpur 117 Hafizabad 34 Okara 19

Sheikhupura 115 Khanewal 32 Lahore 16

Rawalpindi 94 Chakwal 26 Pakpattan 9

Gujrat 90 Jhelum 25 Rajanpur 7

Number of trials for Rice

District No of Trials District No of Trials

Sheikhupura 95 Sialkot 33

Faisalabad 91 Sargodha 28

Gujranwala 64 Hafizabad 27

Kasur 49 Jhang 26

Narowal 47 Lahore 20

Gujrat 45 M.B.din 10

Number of Trials for MaizeDistrict No of Trials District No of Trials

Faisalabad 71 Okara 26

T.T.Singh 63 Pak Pattan 8

Rawalpindi 51 Sargodha 9

Sahiwal 45 Kasur 6

Attock 36 Jhang 2

Number of Trials for Sugarcane

District No of Trials District No of Trials

Faisalabad 23 M.B.Din 4

Sheikhupura 12 Jhang 2

Sargodha 11 Pak Pattan 2

T.T.Singh 6 R.Y.Khan 2

Sahiwal 4 Kasur 1

2. Few points for the Prediction curve:Wheat Rice

Basmati CoarseMaize

Hybrid Non HybridSugarcane Cotton

Non-BT BT

0: 0: 0150: 120: 90160: 57: 62160: 114: 90225: 120:60240: 114:60

Arid Region

60: 40: 24100: 0 : 60100: 50: 60100:100: 60150:100: 60

0: 0: 090: 90: 60

120: 90: 80135: 90: 60160: 114: 90180: 90: 60

0: 0: 0150: 0: 75150: 50: 75150: 100: 0150: 100: 75150: 150: 75225: 100: 75

0: 0: 0120: 90: 62150: 0: 75150: 75: 75150: 150: 75

175: 150: 100180: 150: 120270: 150: 120

0: 0: 0150: 0: 75150: 75: 75150: 150: 75175: 150:100225: 150: 75

0: 0: 0125: 125: 125250: 0: 125250: 125: 125250: 150: 125250: 250: 125375: 125: 125

0: 0: 0120: 0: 60 120: 40: 60 120: 80: 60120:120:60160: 40: 62160: 80: 60 180: 80: 60240: 80: 60

0: 0: 0125:100:100250: 0: 0250: 50:100

250:100:100 250:150:100375:100:100400:100:125

What we have What we need ( Few points for Yield vs N/P) ( More points for Yield vs N/P)

3. Fertilizer trials- Yield but no soil analysis

4. Salt affected soils- Area affected 2.68 mha in Punjab and within irrigated areas, the figure is 1.7 mha but no data available regarding salinity effect on fertilizer use efficiency

5. Rainfed Agriculture- 2.9 mha but no data available for quantifying the relation of moisture content in the soil with fertilizer use efficiency

These Deficiencies lead to:

Low precision of prediction models(Around 80%)

Low reliability for prediction in rainfed areas( 60 to 70 %)

No prediction for salt affected soils

Recommendations

1. Divert the resources to improve the fertilizer use efficiency:

– Conduct soil analysis based demand oriented trials

– Conduct soil moisture based fertilizer trials in rainfed areas

– Conduct fertilizer trials in salt affected areas

2. Improve the efficiency of soil testing laboratories

FUTURE PLANS FUTURE PLANS

• Fertilizer prediction models for Fruits plants, vegetables and minor crops

• Addition of K and micronutrients• Establishment of Farmers Facilitation Centre at

University of Agriculture, Faisalabad• Site specific fertilizer recommendations to site

specific crop production technology• Commercialization