presentation by yashwant deshmukh at saffron chase briefing

Indian Elections 2009One step forward, and staying standstill.. 

Yashwant DeshmukhCVoter Foundation: INDIA

India: just for an idea

20 official languages More than 100 major and 2000 minor

dialects 28 states and 7 union territories 543 parliamentary seats 4145 assembly seats

And the demography..

Add to these a demography that has 7 major religions and a really complex and politically hyperactive caste system comprising more than 3000 social groups.

This makes India not only the biggest but also the most heterogeneous and demographically diversified democracy in the world.

What all this means…

In short; a perfect nightmare for any pollster, to say the least.

Glossary INC – Congress Party (Sonia Gandhi,

Manmohan Singh, Rahul Gandhi) BJP – Bharatiya Janata Party (LK Advani,

Narendra Modi) SP – Samajwadi Party (Mulayam Singh,

Amar Singh) BSP – Bahujan Samaj Party (Mayawati) CPM – Communist Party of India (Marxist) LF – Left Front (alliance of left parties) UPA – Alliance led by Congress Party NDA – Alliance led by BJP

2004: the results

2004: the magic numbers

2009: Why a Congress led government is unlikely to be repeated again this year

The previous combination can get a maximum of 235 seats, almost 40 less than the majority mark…

2009: Why a BJP led government seems unlikely

The old NDA combination can get a maximum of 245 seats, almost 30 less than the majority mark…

2009: where things stand as of today..Mayawati looks set to take the center-stage…

National Elections: Local Factors National elections: disappearance of the “wave”

factor State elections: perform or perish National issues: leadership and national security Anti-incumbency: from top to the bottom Split voting phenomenon: new trend Macro issues: communalism & terrorism Micro issues: local development & local candidate

2009: Scenario 1BSP leads with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC

2009: Scenario 2BSP leads with outside support of Left+ and outside support of BJP+

2009: Scenario 3SP OR NCP lead with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC or the BJP

2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult to get…

NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..

2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get…

NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..

2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get…

Same rule applies on the INC camp..

This leads to a possible Scenario 4To keep BJP and BSP away, Congress could agree to this arrangement, where Left could give inside or outside support..

Scenario 4This could make way for other dark horses..

What does this all mean for Business?As a result of being reliant on the Left parties, you should expect no movement in policies related to economic liberalisation

This also means that next Parliament in India might not complete the full term. The next possible government might very well be a stop-gap arrangement.

If this happens, then the current elections would be remembered as the semi-final of next grand political polarisation in India.

If this is the semi-final, then when would be the final, and who would the eventual finalists be?

FINAL. Sometime in 2012.

Thank You.