presentation of general content, conclusions and recommendations
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Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Networkand its Area of influence
Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations
Consortium
FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL FREIGHT GREAT AXES
I. SUMMARY of the Global Study
EU Reticular and polycentric network having a great socio-economic and intermodal impact. In the main branches of great axes two parallel lines:
one giving priority or exclusiveness to freight heavy traffic another available for passengers and light freight (high sped trains).
Loading gauge UIC-C, width of the tracks UIC. Electrified lines.
Maximum slope 12‰
Trains length 1500 m. and 3.6005000 tonnes.
Locomotive and wagon new concept
Availability of a network of intermodal polyvalent and flexible
terminals
Unified labour, management and operational systems
Free Competition
30÷35% of participation of rail in long distance land transportation
Ferrmed standards simplified version
Consortium
A KEY STRUCTURAL GREAT AXIS NETWORK FOR WESTERN EUROPE
The rail freight network of the FERRMED Great Axis interconnects the most
important sea and inland harbour fronts; and the main
East-West axes of the EU.
Main Trunk Branches Length: 4.500 Km.
Consortium
TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY
Global study will analyze different modes of freight transportation in the whole network of the FERRMED Great Axis from three points of view:
• Supply/Demand Analysis
• Technical Analysis
• Socioeconomic and environmental Analysis
The aim is:
•to match different Supply Scenarios with Demand and to balance and optimize the traffic between different modes of transportation achieving that the rail freight transportation could reach 30÷35% of the long distance land transportation rate
• to put into practice FERRMED standards improving the conditions of capacity, intermodality and interoperability of the railway in the afore mentioned network.
Totally business/market orientated with double approach, regional as well as European.
RESULT: High priority Rail Freight network (business oriented)
Consortium
TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY
• WYG International (UK)• DORSH Consult (Germany)• GESTE ENGINEERING (Switzerland)• INEXIA (France)• NTU (Denmark)• PROGTRANS AG (Switzerland)• RINA INDUSTRY (Italy)• SENER (Spain)• SIGNIFICANCE BV (The Netherlands)• STRATEC (Belgium)• WSP AB (Sweden)• WYG Consulting Group (UK)
SELECTED CONSORTIUM
Consortium
SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS
Consortium
The FERRMED “Global” Study
• Strategic Transport Planning pre-feasibility project, including:
• Railway infrastructure (new or upgrading of existing)
• Necessary investment (including Freight Terminals)
• Operational issues
• Legal and administrative framework
• Environmental concerns
• Economic profitability
• Financing options
• Market opinion (and Market Analysis)
• Four (4) main modules:
• Supply/ Demand analysis
• Technical analysis
• Cost-Benefit analysis
• Legal and administrative issues
Consortium
Content
1. Scope of the S&D analysis
2. Simulation model (2005)
3. Future Scenarios
4. Forecasting (2020 and 2025)
5. Conclusions of the S&D analysis
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
Framework
FER
RM
ED
Glo
bal S
tud
y
Supply/Demand
Data Collection
Technical
CBAEnvironmental
AdministrativeLegal
SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS
• FERRMED transport planning model building (base year 2005)
• Definition of 14 future scenarios (2020-2025)
• Simulation and traffic forecasting
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
Trans-Tools Modelling Platform
• Developed under EU funding
• Originally for evaluation of TEN-T projects
• Models passenger and freight transport across Europe
• Database (2000)• transport variables
• socioeconomic variables
• networks
• services
• Largest European transport model
4 step transport planning model
(macroscopic)
Trans-Tools provides a simulation tool for strategic analysis
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
FreightDemand model
(generation/distribution)
Network
FreightModal Split
Logistics Model
TrafficAssignment
PassengerDemand model
(generation/distribution)
PassengerModal Split
Consortium
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Railways (freight) Mixed lines Dedicated lines
Transport Networks (II)
Consortium
External models for freight demand
1. Intra Red Banana and export to EU 25
2. Internal Demand for Red Banana Countries
• At country level
• 4 production sectors
• Industry
• Agriculture
• Construction
• Energy
• Eurostat data
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
3. Port Flow Distribution Model
1 2
3
Consortium
Port Flow Distribution Model
• 45 major European ports included
• 55% total European ports freight traffic
• 75% of intercontinental freight traffic in Europe
• Maritime and inland networks
• 4 models built in TransCAD
• containers
• Ro-Ro
• general cargo
• dry bulk
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
Traffic Assignment: Rail
• Output in tonnes/day (freight) and pax/day (passengers) converted to traffic (trains/day)
• Model calibrated against observed rail traffic data for main lines
• Local traffic considered separately using different occupancy and loading factors
• Traffic split by train type
• Passenger: high speed, intercity, commuter
• Freight: block, wagon and container
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
y = 0,86x + 5,64R2 = 0,88
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Observed
Ca
lcu
late
d
y = 0.86x + 5.6R2 = 0.88
2005 Rail Freight Traffic Calibration
Mod
elled
Observed
y = 0,94x + 6,26
R2 = 0,95
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Observed
Ca
lcu
late
d
2005 Rail Passenger Traffic Calibration
y = 0.94x + 6.3R2 = 0.95
Mod
elled
Observed
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Freight Modal Split
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Freight Modal Split (2005)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EU25 Red Banana
Road Rail IWW Sea
(Measured in tonnes-km)
Inland Freight Modal Split (2005)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EU25 Red Banana
Road Rail IWW
Consortium
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Rail Freight (trains/day)
Year 2005 Traffic (III)
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Inland Demand Forecasting
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Growth Rates Forecasting for Inland Freight Demand(Intra-Country + Intra Red Banana and Export to EU-25 models)
Base 100: 2005
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1. Intra Red Banana - export to EU25 2. Intra-Country TOT Inland
Growth Rate Forecasting for Main Socioeconomic VariablesEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
GDP (2005 constant price) Population
Growth Rate Forecasting for Production by sector and Consumption
EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Consumption Total Production Construction
Industry Agriculture Energy
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Maritime Demand Forecasting
2005 - 2025 RefGrowth Factor
Containers 262%
Ro-Ro 106%
Dry Bulk 41%
General Cargo 24%
Total 118%
• Inputs
• GDP
• Port expansion plans
• Exports / imports
• OECD industrial performance
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Growth Rate Forecasting for GDPEU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
GDP (2005 constant price)
Share between Mediterranean Ports and Others
Scenario Med. PortsOther
European ports
2005 Base year 24% 76%
2025 Reference 27% 73%
Consortium
Reference Scenario Network
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
• Planned and committed projects at 3 levels
• European
• National
• Regional
• New and upgraded infrastructure
• Rail Freight (127 projects)
• Rail Passenger (140 projects)
• Road (209 projects)
• Inland waterways (11 projects)
• Terminals
Rail Freight Network (2025 Reference Scenario)
Consortium
Reference Scenario Policies (I)
Policy ActionScenario year
Modelling
Freight intermodality and logistics
Motorways of the sea 2020 Reduce sea shipping waiting time at ports by 10%.
Intermodal loading units (ILU) and freight integrators (Marco Polo Programme)
2020
Reduce cost at freight terminals by 30% viz:- fixed inventory (Euros/ton)- handling (Euro/m3)- storage (Euro/m3)
Reduce waiting time at terminals by 10%Reduce travel time by 10%
Road pricing (Eurovignette) for freight and passenger transportation
2020 Vehicle charges per country (€/veh-km)
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
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Reference Scenario Policies (II)
Policy ActionScenario
yearModelling
Liberalisation of transport markets and interoperability
Adoption of common rules in rail sector to improve interoperability and enhance quality of services
2020 Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%
Rail sector liberalisation --full separation between infrastructure and operations-
2020
Reduce rail freight travel cost by 10% (€/ton-km)
Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%
International passengers services deregulation
2020 Reduce rail passenger travel cost by 5% (€/pax-km)
Ports service liberalisation
2020 Reduce sea shipping costs (€/load) by 10 %
Airport slotsliberalisation
2020 Reduce tariffs for airport connections by 20%
Simplify Sea/IWW custom formalities
2020 Reduce sea and IWW port waiting times by 10%
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
• Transport operating cost heavily dependant on fuel cost
• Operating cost calculation assumptions:
• Road freight transport fuel prices grow at 50% of crude oil rate
• IWW and Maritime Transport fuel prices grow at 80% of crude oil rate
• Rail electric power price grows at 30% of average energy rate
• Assumptions for crude oil and energy prices growth:
• Base year for prices: 2000 (Trans-Tools)• Future trends: World Bank (2008) and
STEPs project (EC, 2006)
Total freight transport cost growth 2000-2025
Road 18.6%
Rail 1.7%
IWW 21.5%
Sea 16.9%
Freight Model Input
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
Transport Costs
Consortium
FERRMED StandardFERRMED Scenarios
1st RunFERRMED Scenarios
2nd Run
1. Signalling Included Included
2. Train Length Included Included
3. New terminals and expansion Included Included
4. Maximum Axle Load Included New lines
5. Width of the tracks UIC 1435 mm Included Included
6. Liberalisation of the rail freight market Included (Ref. Scenario) Included (Ref. Scenario)
7. Reliability and Quality Included Included
8. Loading gauge UIC C As in Reference scenario For Upgraded and New lines
9. Two Parallel lines in core FERRMED rail network
Included when justified Included when justified
10. Increase of Freight train priority As in Reference scenario Selected lines
11. Slope limitation to 12 ‰ As in Reference scenarioIncluded when needed to solve
slope bottlenecks
12. Homogenisation of Power type As in Reference scenario Included
13. Renewal of Rolling stock Indirect Effect Indirect effect
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
FERRMED Standards Implementation
Consortium
Inland Freight Modal Split
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
(Measured in tonnes-km)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Road Rail IWW
IWW 7,8% 8,5% 8,7% 8,7% 8,5% 8,6% 8,5%
Rail 14,0% 14,2% 14,9% 16,1% 17,1% 17,1% 18,8%
Road 78,2% 77,3% 76,4% 75,2% 74,4% 74,3% 72,7%
1. 2005 Base Year3. 2020 Reference
2nd run 7. 2025 Reference
2nd run9. 2025 Medium
FERRMED 2 nd run11. 2025 Full
FERRMED 2nd run
12. 2025 Southern Ports enhancement
27% to 35%
13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)
Consortium
Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>500 km)
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Road Rail IWW
IWW 19,6% 20,2% 19,8% 20,2% 19,9% 19,6% 19,9% 19,8%
Rail 20,5% 20,7% 22,6% 21,4% 23,0% 24,3% 24,6% 35,0%
Road 59,9% 59,1% 57,7% 58,4% 57,1% 56,1% 55,6% 45,1%
1. 2005 Base Year
3. 2020 Reference 2nd
Run
5. 2020 Medium
FERRMED
7. 2025 Reference 2nd
run
9. 2025 Medium
FERRMED 2
11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2
nd run
12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement
13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)
(Measured in tonnes-km)
Consortium
Freight Modal Split Inland Long Distance (>1000 km)
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
(Measured in tonnes-km)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Road Rail IWW
IWW 14,4% 15,1% 14,7% 15,5% 15,1% 14,7% 15,1% 14,7%
Rail 24,1% 24,7% 26,4% 25,2% 26,4% 28,2% 28,9% 39,8%
Road 61,5% 60,2% 58,9% 59,3% 58,5% 57,1% 56,0% 45,4%
1. 2005 Base Year
3. 2020 Reference 2nd
Run
5. 2020 Medium
FERRMED 2nd
7. 2025 Reference 2nd
run
9. 2025 Medium
FERRMED 2
11. 2025 Full FERRMED 2
nd run
12. 2025 Southern ports enhancement
13. 2025 Obj. achieved: RAIL 35% (>500Km)
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2025 REFERENCE Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
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SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
2025 FULL FERRMED Scenario Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)
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FERRMED: Reversing the trend (I)
Inland Freight Transport Performance 1995 - 2005: EUROSTAT PocketBook 2005 - 2025: FERRMED Forecasting
25814.2%
22115.5%
45314.9%
49116.1%
57418.8%
52417.1%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
30001
99
5
20
00
20
05
(1)
20
05
Ba
se
Ye
ar
(3)
20
20
Re
fere
nc
e 2
nd
Ru
n
(7)
20
25
Re
f. 2
nd
ru
nB
ott
len
ec
ks
so
luti
on
(1)
20
05
Ba
se
Ye
ar
(5)
20
20
Me
diu
m F
ER
RM
ED
2n
d r
un
(9)
20
25
Me
diu
m F
ER
RM
ED
2n
d r
un
(1)
20
05
Ba
se
Ye
ar
(11
) 2
02
5 F
ull
FE
RR
ME
D 2
nd
run
(12
) 2
02
5 S
ou
the
rn p
ort
se
nh
an
ce
me
nt
27
% t
o 3
5%
(13
) 2
02
5 O
bj.
ac
hie
ve
d:
RA
IL 3
5%
(>
50
0K
m)
Bil
lio
n (
109 )
to
nn
es
-km
Rail Ref.
IWW Ref.
Total
Total Ref.
Total MEDIUM
Total FULL
RoadRailIWW
Road Ref.
Road MEDIUMRail MEDIUMIWW MEDIUM
Road FULLRail FULLIWW FULL
SCOPE 2005 SCENARIOS FORECASTING CONCLUSIONS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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Contents
• FERRMED Rail Network Definition
• FERRMED Standards
• Bottleneck analysis
• Terminals
• Costs
• Recommendations
• Conclusion
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FERRMED Rail Network Definition
• Started with FERRMED Association Map
• Line by line analysis
- FERRMED Standards
- Expert judgement
• Optimal freight train routes selected
• Lines not meeting criteria not retained
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The FERRMED Rail Network (2005)
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The FERRMED Rail Network (2025)
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Bottleneck Analysis
• Theoretical capacity of each line calculated
• Capacity compared with train traffic
• Residual capacity determined
• Bottlenecks identified based on :- residual capacity
- relative capacity (track occupation)
- variation of traffic intensity
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Bottleneck LocationsReference Scenario 2025
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The 2005 Full FERRMED Rail Network
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The 2025 Full FERRMED Rail Network
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Evolution of the network
Track gauge
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2005Reference
2025Reference
Full
Scenario
ShareStandard gauge
Broad gauge
2025
Full
Consortium
Evolution of the network
Infrastructure signalling
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 Reference 2025 Reference Full
Scenario
Share
without block system
manual block system
automatic block system
ERTMS
2025 Full
Consortium
Evolution of the network
Max Train Length
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%
60%70%
80%90%
2005Reference
2025Reference
Full
Scenario
Share
< 500m
≥ 500 and < 750m
≥ 750 and < 1000m
≥ 1000 and ≤ 1500m
2025
Full
Consortium
Costs up to 2025 by scenario
0
50
100
150
200
250
MEDIUM FULL FULL +
Scenarios
Co
sts
(€ b
n)
Ports & Terminals
Automatic coupling
ERTMS Implementation
Ferrmed Standards
Missing links
Bottleneck solutions + By-passes
€ 131 bn
€ 178 bn
€ 211 bn
2025
Consortium
Costs up to 2025 by scenario
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Recommendations
2025 Full scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4
Priority
Investment costs (€ bn)
Axle load
ElectrificationElectric reinforcement
By-passes
ERTMS
Other missing links
Train Length
Ports and Terminals
Noise protection barriers
Track gauge
Automatic coupler
Loading gauge
Bottlenecks solving
Tarragona-Castelló
Consortium
Recommendations
• To change the width of the tracks in Spain from the French border.
• To develop the automatic coupler (tractive and compression efforts with wire data transmission)
• To increase the freight train length : 1000 m
1500 m
• To solve the detected bottlenecks and to build the Tarragona – Castelló new line.
• To construct by-passes of major conurbations
Consortium
• High performance parallel lines and almost dedicated lines according to passenger or freight traffic
• Autocoupler & long trains with radio or wire data transmission
• A rail network available for freight transportation 24 h / 24 and 7 days / 7
• Unified management and monitoring systems (ERTMS)
Outcomes
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ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
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Introduction
• Transport• critical to our economy but;
• environmentally impacting
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)* by Sector, EU-27 (2006)
Energy Industrie
s30.9%
Transport
19.3%
Services, etc.3.6%
Households
9.4%
Industry21.0%
Other ***15.7%
Source: DG TREN Pocketbook 2009
Consortium
Emissions
• High level impact on emission levels analysed within the CBA
• Emission factors derived from TREMOVE transport & emissions simulation model
• Reduction in pollutants and CO2 assessed for Medium, Full / Full+
FERRMED Medium Scenario
FERRMED Full Scenario
FERRMED Full+ Scenario
NoX 805,182 1,004,694 1,004,694
NMVOC 5,794 8,281 8,281
SO2 199,841 242,682 242,682
PM 27,558 35,013 35,013
CO2 128,099,118 145,410,934 145,410,934
Reduction in Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016 – 2045 (tonnes)
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CO2 Savings
• Modest savings achieved in CO2 against trend of rising transport demand
• Significant contribution towards Climate and Energy Package target (10% reduction)
CO2 Savings at Strategic Years
2020 2025 2035 2045
Full / Full+ FERRMED Scenario. CO2 reduction (Mt/yr)
3.173 4.857 5.361 6.678
as % of Reference Scenario CO2 emissions
0.408% 0.591% 0.623% 0.743%
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Components of Socio-Economic Analysis
1.Cost-Benefit Analysis
2.Financial Analysis
3.Multi-Critera Analysis
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Socio-economic Analysis: Part 1
Cost-Benefit Analysis
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Objectives of the CBA
• Identification and quantification of all possible monetarisable economic, social and environmental impacts as economic costs or benefits (cost savings)
• Assessing project benefits against infrastructure investment and operating costs
• CBA methodology for strategic assessment
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Origin of benefits by scenario and type
Benefits: FFS / RS & WFFS / RS
from reduced VOC
39.1%
from reduced accidents
0.5%
from reduced pollutant
emissions2.5%
from reduced GHG emissions
0.4%
from reduced travel / transport
time57.4%
Benefits: MFS / RS
from reduced VOC
72.6%
from reduced travel / transport
time20.0%
from reduced GHG emissions
1.1%
from reduced pollutant
emissions4.8%from reduced
accidents 1.5%
Medium FS
Full FS
Social discount rate:3.5%
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Origin of benefits by scenario and mode
162
-5
23
303
6 6
-49
4
237
164
-5
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
railpassenger
rail freight roadpassenger
road freight IWW SSS
[bn
EU
R]
2005 p
rices
MFS FFS / F+FS
Consortium
CBA results
Net Present Value(NPV)
0
10'000
20'000
30'000
40'000
50'000
60'000
70'000
80'000
90'000
100'000
MFS FFS F+FS
[m E
UR
]
Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
MFS FFS F+FS
[%]
Benefit/Cost Ratio(BCR)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
MFS FFS F+FS
[-]
Scenario
Net Present Value –
NPV (million Euro)
Economic Internal Rate of Return – EIRR (%)
Benefit / Cost Ratio –
BCR
MFS 10,780 4.97 1.155
FFS 93,783 11.09 1.993
F+FS 76,453 8.85 1.684
(*) social discount rate: 3.5%
Consortium
Socio-economic Analysis: Part 2
Financial Analysis
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Objectives of Financial Analysis
• Suitable financing sources for the different investment types and scenarios
• Public versus private funding• Cash-flow calculation 2013-2025• Break-down of total funding requirements
of each FERRMED Scenario by main financing sources 2013-2025
Consortium
Possible financing sources
Source
Railway infra-
structure upgrad. (incl. noise prot. walls)
ERTMS Rolling
stock (couplg.
+Spanish UIC g. roll.
st.)
New rail
lines
Ports & ter-
mi-nals
Electr. power upgra-ding
Bottle-neck
investments
By-pas-
ses
National public entities
70 50 70 10 10 70 70 40
EC 15 25 15 10 10 15 30 15 EIB 15 25 15 10 10 15 0 15 Private PPP inv.
- - - 50 50 - - 20
Comm. banks
- - - 20 20 - - 10
Σ 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Consortium
Conclusions
There is in Europe a widespread preparedness to finance rail projects to solve the
increasing environmental and capacity problems of road transport .
European rail corridors are co-financed by the EC only if the new European rules for
rail transport are met. The investments foreseen for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail
Network meet the funding rules of the EC.
More than 50 % of the funds for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail Network) must come
from national public sources.
Up to 30 % of the total funds required can be expected to be co-financed by the EC
and EIB.
Financial contributions from private stakeholders should be taken into account based
on pilot models of PPP rail projects in Europe.
New financing instruments have been created on the EU level as a major step to
support PPP projects.
Consortium
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
Rail Freight Traffic
Growth (tonnes-km) between:
Road Rail IWW SeaTotal All
Total Inland
2020 Reference/ 2020 Medium
-1.8% 10.7% -0,5% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
2025 Reference/ 2025 Medium
-1.4% 8.4% -1,0% -0.5% 0.1% -0.1%
2025 Reference/ 2025 Full
-2.0% 15.6% -1,8% -0.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Consortium
Proposed Investments(Full FERRMED Scenario)
• Bottlenecks solutions: 17.1 bn €
• New lines: 16.4 bn €
• City by-passes: 12.8 bn €
• FERRMED standards: 56 bn €
• ERTMS: 14.3 bn €
• Automatic couplers: 7.4 bn €
• Rolling stock: 630 mil €
• Electric reinforcement: 724 mil €
• Terminals (Ports + Inland): 51,7 bn €
• Total: 177.7 bn €
Consortium
Priorities
• Priority 1 measures:
• Standard track gauge / Taragona-Castello new line / Solve
bottlenecks (capacity) / Loading gauge (UIC B1 in existing, UIC
C in new) / Automatic coupling system / Noise barriers
• Priority 2 measures:
• Reinforcement of electricity power / ERTMS / City by-passes /
Missing links / Freight train length increase / Terminals
• Priority 3 measures:
• Electrification of remaining lines / Axle load increase
Consortium
Cost – Benefit Analysis & Financing
• Full FERMED Scenario:
• EIRR: 11.09%
• BCR: 1.99
• The next step should be to establish a programme of priority projects.
• Individual feasibility studies (project by project) are anyhow a prerequisite for financing of specific projects.
• Discussions with International Financing Institutions should start in short-term.
Consortium
Legal – Policy Assessment
• Lack of network capacity for rail freight: Regulatory and administrative reforms are needed.
• Parallel lines for freight and passenger rail traffic.
• Priority to city by-passes.
• Set more fair priority rules.
• Develop efficient and unified charging structure.
• Achieve full liberalization.
• Achieve free competition.
• Establish freight “preference” corridors.
• Management at corridor level should be examined.
Consortium
FERRMED PROPOSALS
Consortium
MAIN GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
The application of FERRMED Standards is a key issue in order to reverse the decreasing share of Railway in land transportation.
The proposed investment and actions in the FERRMED Great Axis Rail Freight Core Network and main feeders, are feasible and sustainable from economic, financial, and environmental perspective.
As a consequence, FERRMED Association proposes the adoption of FERRMED Great Axis Core Network and main feeders as a part of the EU high priority Rail Freight Network, recommending the approval as Priority Projects of all actions to be developed in the Core Network
Consortium
CORE NETWORK
Consortium
MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (I)
Gradual Implementation of FERRMED Standards
To built by-passes in big cities
To reinforce border crossings in the Alps and in the Pyrenees (new crossing line in the Alps and change track width in conventional existing lines in the Pyrenees)
To upgrade Spanish main corridors to UIC width (1435mm), starting by the Mediterranean one
To consolidate an intermodal and polyvalent public/private network of terminals with appropriate rail links
Consortium
MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (II)
To enhance the capacity of all main European Ports improving the rail links with their hinterlands
Policy and management harmonisation
Liberalization and free competition
To build new lines in the FERRMED Core Network, in the corridors where double line or interconnections links do not exist (Like Tarragona-Castelló and Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras).
Consortium
FERRMED PROPOSALS
These main general Conclusions and Actions derived from the Global Study, allows FERRMED Association to make a set of 100 proposals in order to get a suitable Rail freight Network in the “Red Banana” area.
Consortium
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (V)
FRANCE and SOUTH-EAST UNITED KINGDOMCore Network lines: London – Calais/Dunkerque – Lille – Metz – Dijon; Le Havre – Rouen
– Amiens – Reims – Dijon; Le Havre – Rouen – Paris – Dijon; Luxembourg/Apach – Metz – Nancy – Dijon – Lyon – Valence – Avignon /Marseille – Nimes – Montpellier –
Perpignan – Girona/Barcelona; Lyon – Torino/Milano
To implement FERRMED Standards and to enlarge or to build high capacity Terminals
By passes in Lille, Paris (Rocade Nord) and Lyon
New mixed lines Nimes-Montpellier-Perpignan and Lyon-Torino
To imporve the access to Le Havre and Marseille ports
To refublish the line Marseille- Montgenèvre (long term)
Consortium
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VII)
SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICACore Network lines:
Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-Antequera-Bobadilla-Algeciras
To change the widht of the tracks in all Mediterranean Corridor in the existing conventional line
New HSL Tarragona-Castelló, València -Alacant-Murcia-Almeria (keeping the existing line Murcia-Lorca-Almendricos-Aguilas as a separate line from the new one).
Double gauge in surroundings of huge cities
Consortium
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VIII)
Great by-pass Girona Nord-Tarragona Sud
Great by-pass Castelló-Xativa By-passes in Alacant, Murcia, Málaga,
etc. New mixed line Almería- Motril-Málaga-
Algeciras (HSL+freight) To electrify and to put double track in
the line Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Aguilas
To refurbish and to change the widht of the tracks in the line Sevilla/Algeciras-Bobadilla/Antequera-Granada-Almería
To introduce FERRMED Standards and to enlarge/to built high capacity Terminals
Study more suitable Gibraltar crossing
SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICACore Network lines:
Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-Antequera-Bobadilla-Algeciras
Consortium
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (IX)
Lines to be declared as EU Priority ProjectsFERRMED PROPOSAL
Country Lines to be declared as EU Priority Projects
Germany Line Bremen-Münster-Duisburg (to be included as an extension of corridor number 20).
Line Koblenz-Luxembourg/Apach
France Line Calais/Dunkerque-Lille-Metz-Dijon
Line Le Havre-Amiens-Reims-Dijon
Spain (Medite-rranean corridor)
Line Tarragona-Castelló-València-Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras
Line Lorca-Granada-Antequera
Consortium
Muchas gracias por su atención
FERRMED ASBL
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