presentation slides: understanding and using weather and climate information: early warning early...
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8/11/2019 Presentation Slides: Understanding and Using Weather and Climate Information: Early Warning Early Action (EWEA)
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WEATHER REPORTS FROM THE FUTUREUN Climate Summit 2014: Catalyzing Action
How will climate change impact our weather in the year 2050? Watch weatherreports from the future
If humanitys GHG emissions continue to increase, the average temperature of theEarths lower atmosphere could rise more than 4 degrees celcius by the end of the21 st century. But what does a global average temperature rise really mean? How
would we experience it on a daily basis?
Weather report from the year 2050 TV weather presenters present possible scenarios(NOT TRUE FORECASTS).
But they are based on the most-up-to-date climate science and they paint acompelling picture of what life could be like on a warmer planet.
THESE WORST CASE FUTURES DO NOT NEED TO HAPPEN!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.behttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbne3q9Xers&feature=youtu.be -
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Understanding and
Using Weatherand
Climate Information Early Warning
Action
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Early Warning, Early Action
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Early Warning, Early Action means
Routinely takinghumanitarian actionbefore a disaster orhealth emergencyhappens, making fulluse of scientificinformation on all
timescales.
Using climate and weatherinformation to take actionbefore a disaster strikes, inorder to reduce negativeimpacts.
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As the climate changes, we can expectmore extreme weather events, more often
Photo: NASAPhoto: Danish Red Cross
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Climate Training Kit. Module 8: Understanding and Using EW Infomation
Disaster
Response
Traditional Approach
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8/11/2019 Presentation Slides: Understanding and Using Weather and Climate Information: Early Warning Early Action (EWEA)
7/37Climate Training Kit. Module 8: Understanding and Using EW Infomation
Disaster
Early Action
Early Warning
Response
Enhanced approach
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Why Early Warning, Early Action?
Extreme events have implicationsfor health, livelihoods, water, foodsecurity, and others.
Climate and weather informationcan help anticipate and prepare forchanging risks.
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The elements ofEarly Warning, Early Action
Knowledge: Collecting data tounderstand risks
Monitoring: Collaboration withhazard monitoring services
Communication: Sharinginformation about hazards
Action: building responsecapability Preparing forpending hazards.
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RiskKnowledge
Are hazards andvulnerabilities well
known? What are their
patterns and trends?
Are risks maps anddata available?
Key questions toconsider whendesigning EW-EA Plan
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Monitoring(The trickier side of Early Warning,
Early Action)
Hazard monitoring can include, for example, river gaugesfor floods and scientific forecasts for extreme rain ordrought
Forecasts issued for days, weeks and months in advance Collaboration with national meteorological service is a good
add on to access information
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Communication
Do warnings reach all ofthose at risk?
Are the risks and thewarnings well understood?
Is the warning informationclear and usable?
Key questions to considerwhen designing
EW-EA Plan
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Early Warning, Early Action means
Using climate and weatherinformation to take action before
a disaster strikes, in order toreduce negative impacts
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Account for evolving risk andrising uncertainty
Accommodate multiple timescales
...we respondto w arn ings , no t
disasters
New good IFRC guides
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Early warning, early action
Bridging time scales Climate changeRising risks, trends,
more surprises
Seasonal forecastsLevel of risk in coming months
Regular forecasts Impending hazard
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Forecast Caveats(time to take action versus specificity)
3 10 day forecasts (short leadtime, very specific)
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Forecast Caveats(time to take action versus specificity)
Monthly and seasonal forecasts(more lead time, less specific)
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Forecast Caveats(time to take action versus specificity)
Climate change predictions (even morelead time, even less specific)
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Long lead-time forecastscant say it all about the future
Long-term forecasts are not precise .They can only tell what is m ore l ikely tohappen over a large area.
We need to also monitor shorter-term
weather forecasts to b et ter ant ic ipate when, where or how severe.
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Seasonal rainfall forecast issued October2010 for upcoming November-January
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Areas that experienced flooding ordrought that November-January
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Early Action Paid Off:
Faster response: 1-2 days rather than 40 in2007
Fewer victims ( 30 instead of hundreds) Lower cost per beneficiary ( 30% )
Example: Red Crossvolunteers in Ghanasaving lives by alerting
Volta fishermen thatthe Bagre dam wouldbe spilled.
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Which forecasts are useful forhumanitarian decisions?
What kind of early actions should be taken in the
short term? long term?medium term?
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you risk missing critical information
in the short term.
If you only monitor the long term,
you risk missing critical informationin the long term.
And, if you only monitor the short term
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Can we unders tand what themet office is telling us?
For monitoring, partnerships with information centers are crucial, but.
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Defining triggers for action that are
LOW-COST
NO-REGRETSBENEFICIAL
Not Easy!
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establishing triggers
Draw on past knowledge of disasters Establish and document triggers well before
a hazard arrives
Ensure internal support and externalpartnerships are in place especially with thegovernment.
Focus on low-cost, no-regrets, beneficialsolutions.
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TAKING ACTION, ESTABLISHING TRIGGERS
Tailor actions to likelihood of hazard. Understand and accept the risks of
taking action if a hazard does notmaterialize.
Understand and accept the risks of not
taking action if a hazard materializes.
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Putting it all togetherExamples of Early Warning Early Action
Early Warning: In 2007, the Bangladesh Red Crescentreceived early warning indicators of Cyclone Sidrapproaching their coast.
Early Action: Working with the government 5,000 volunteerswith megaphones alerted and evacuated at risk residents. As result 4,500 people died compared to 138,000 in 1991.
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Early Warning, Early Action pays off Thecase of West Africa
Most countries got supplies just days after flooding in 2008.(In 2007, flood operations were an estimated 40 days late).
Faster arrival of relief saved lives, minimized health impacts,protected livelihoods and enabled communities to recover.
In 2007 an emergency dam spillage cost 30 lives. In 2008,dam release times were scheduled, allowing Red Crossvolunteers to warn communities ahead of time. This time onlytwo lives were lost.
Resources were used more efficiently: 33 per cent less spentper beneficiary in 2008 than in two previous years.
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Low-cost actions beneficial,even if floods hadnt materialized
Updating contingency plans Training of trainers and increase of volunteer capacity
Paperwork for border crossing and health insurance handledin advance for relief teams
Relief items strategically placed in three regional warehouses,(instead of depending on supplies from Dubai)
Shorter-term early warning systems established and checked
Relationships formed with forecasting agencies, so the RedCross Red Crescent received timely warnings
Relationships formed with government authorities to allow forearly actions.
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Early warning isa chain of people linked to
a chain of ac t ionsthat make it work!
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Early Warning Action ScenarioExercise Objectives
On completion this exercise, participants willhave and understanding of: Using weather and climate information on
different time-scales act before disasterhappen
How long term climate trends can beaddressed through disaster preparedness andlong term risk reduction work
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Early Warning/Early Action Exercise
Group : Floods
Group 3: Cyclones
Group 2: Drought
Group 4: Sea Level Rise
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E-mail: ifrc@iri.columbia.edu
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