presented by david l. patton, p.e. current trends in renewable energy: r. w. beck, inc. iped coal...

presented by

David L. Patton, P.E.

Current Trends in Renewable Energy:Current Trends in Renewable Energy:

R. W. Beck, Inc.

IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE

January 18-19, 2007 St. Petersburg, FL

Tangible and Intangible BenefitsTangible and Intangible Benefits

Which Renewable Candidates are Realistic Now?Which Renewable Candidates are Realistic Now?

Wind Biomass Fuel Cells Geothermal Hydro Ocean (Tidal, OTEC) Solar (PV, Thermal)

Renewable Energy Capacity Trend,1999 - 2006Renewable Energy Capacity Trend,1999 - 2006

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Biomass (Total)

Wood/Wood Waste

MSW/Landfill Gas

Other Biomass

Source: U.S. DOE EIA, August 2005YearYear

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity,

MW

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity,

MW

00

20002000

40004000

60006000

80008000

10,00010,000

12,00012,000

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006

14,00014,000

U.S. Renewable Electric Generating Capacity 2005U.S. Renewable Electric Generating Capacity 2005

Nuclear8%

Renewables6%

Solar1%

Wind2%

Geothermal5%

Conventional Hydroelectric

46%

Biomass46%

Petroleum Fuels40%

Natural Gas23%

Coal23%

Source: U.S. DOE EIA, January 2007

Wind Energy – Tangible BenefitsWind Energy – Tangible Benefits

No Fuel Price Uncertainty

No Fuel Cost

Low Operating Cost

Relatively Less Complex

Mature Wind Turbine Technologies

Addresses Environmental Issues

Lease Payments Support Family Farms

Government Financial Incentives & Grants

U.S. Annual Average Wind Resources MapU.S. Annual Average Wind Resources Map

Source: NREL

U.S. Annual Wind GeneratingCapacity: Installed and ProjectedU.S. Annual Wind GeneratingCapacity: Installed and Projected

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

MW

Inst

alle

d D

uri

ng

Yea

r

Source: U.S. DOE Wind Energy Program and AWEA

2007 (projected)

3250

3500

Biomass Energy – Tangible BenefitsBiomass Energy – Tangible Benefits

Lower Fuel Costs

Addresses Environmental Issues

Domestic Sources

Local Economic Benefits

Mature Biomass/Biogas Process Technologies

Government Financial Incentives & Grants

Biomass Resource AvailabilityBiomass Resource Availability

Biomass Fuel for Generation is Widespread Within Most States

States with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Goals

MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC

Source: NREL and PEW Center, Global Climate Change

States with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / GoalsStates with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Goals

Source: NREL and PEW Center, Global Climate Change

Intangible Benefits – All RenewablesIntangible Benefits – All Renewables

Positive Public Image

Desire for Diversified Portfolio

Public Support/Perception

Political Support

Greenhouse Gas Drivers

Energy Independence / Security

Offset Emissions from “Dirtier” Energy Sources

RPS Goals vs. Renewable StatusRPS Goals vs. Renewable Status

RPS Year

RPS / Goal*

Arizona 2025 15%

California 2010 20%

Colorado 2015 10%

Connecticut 2010 10%

Delaware 2019 10%

District of Columbia 2022 11%

Hawaii 2020 20%

Illinois* 2013 8%

Iowa 2007 105 MW

Maine 2000 30%

Maryland 2019 7.5%

Massachusetts 2009 4.0%

Source: U.S. DOE EIA & PEW Central Global Climate Change, December 2006

* As a percent of state generation or actual generation / use.

RPS Year

RPS / Goal*

Minnesota 2015 10%

Montana 2015 15%

Nevada 2015 20%

New Jersey 2021 22.5%

New Mexico 2011 10%

New York 2013 24%

Pennsylvania 2020 18%

Rhode Island 2020 15%

Texas 2015 5,880 MW

Vermont 2012 10%

Washington 2020 15%

Wisconsin 2015 10%

SummarySummary

Realistic Renewable Candidates

Renewable Energy Capacity Trends

Recent Renewable Capacity

Wind Energy – Tangible Benefits

Biomass Energy – Tangible Benefits

Intangible Benefits – All Renewables

RPS Goals

Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030 (billion kilowatt hours) Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030 (billion kilowatt hours)

00

10001000

20002000

30003000

40004000

19801980 19901990 20052005 20202020 20302030

NuclearNuclear

RenewablesRenewables

CoalCoal

Natural GasNatural Gas

PetroleumPetroleum

History Projections

Source: U.S. DOE EIA

ConclusionsConclusions

Biomass and Wind are Currently the Most Commercially Realistic Renewables

25,000 to 50,000 Megawatts New Renewable Energy Capacity Nationwide in Next Decade

Policy Consistency and Continuity

QuestionsQuestions

David L. Patton, P.E.R. W. Beck, Inc.

dpatton@rwbeck.com

(508) 935-1811

David L. Patton, P.E.R. W. Beck, Inc.

dpatton@rwbeck.com

(508) 935-1811

IPED COAL POWER CONFERENCE