prof. peter mckiernan: school of management, university of st andrews ‘thinking long’ in...
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Prof. Peter McKiernan: School of Management, University of St Andrews
‘Thinking Long’ in ‘Managing Change’
Fife Partnership: “The Gathering”The Vine, Dunfermline 2010
Predictable Surprises?
“Nobody saw this coming...S&P and Moody’s didn’t see it coming Bear Sterns certainly didn't see it coming, Merrill Lynch didn’t see it coming. Nobody saw this coming.”
Angelo Mozilo, former CEO and Chairman of Countrywide Financial
“Almost all of us, including me, who were involved in the financial system that is to say, financial firms, regulators, rating agencies, analysts, and commentators missed the powerful combination of factors that led to this crisis and the serious possibility of a massive crisis”
Robert Rubin, former treasury secretary, former Chair of the executive committee of Citigroup’s board of directors
Postcard from the future
Who uses Scenarios?
• Edinburgh City to explore the future of the city• Royal Dutch Shell to anticipate the oil shocks • Grampian Region to assess life after oil• U/Distillers to analyse the spread of Islam in Turkey
• Unilever to form a new channel strategy in Russia
• Scotland to assess the pathways for a new nation
• Jersey to evaluate an e-commerce strategy
• Stirling to integrate several strategic planning exercises
• Fife to inform the Community Plan
• Dyslexia Scotland to inform the 5 year plan
• EU Commission for Future of Automobile Sector
Fife Scenario Process-Overall Aim
Provide scenario planning and related strategic management methods that best
equip Fife Partnership to manage and adapt to change in the next ten year
community planning cycle from 2010.
Key Issue Sub-Issues
Demographics Ageing population; Demographic change; Migration
Economy Current Economic Crisis; Funding; Unemployment
CO2CO2 targets; Associated Climate Change; Impact on Industry
Sustainable Communities Difference between aspirations and reality; current practices are not addressing needs
InequalityPockets of poverty and deprivation; issues around crime
Fife’s Key Drivers
Final Uncertainty Matrix
Sustainable Communitie
s
DemographicsEconomy
Public Sector Reform
Fife Partnership
Infrastructure
Inequality
CO2
Technology
Importance
Uncertainty
Group 1:Quick RecoveryMissing Targets
Group 2:Quick Recovery
Reaching Targets
Group 4:Slow Recovery
Reaching Targets
Group 3:Slow RecoveryMissing Targets
Economy
Carbon Emissions
2 x 2 Scenario Matrix
12
Thank you.
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