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Prognostic Health Managementof Hybrid Powertrains
Dr Suresh Nayagam, ePHM Group, Suresh.Nayagam@cranfield.ac.uk
February 2016
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Why a System’s FunctionalReliability Is Important
Toyota’s Sudden Acceleration Air Asia Crash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOWdWHSgI-4
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Traditional ReliabilityAssessment
From Field Data
Test in an Environmental Chamber
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Product Service System(PSS)
Product Service System:“an integrated product and serviceoffering that delivers value in use”
GoldCare is a comprehensive recurring fleet maintenance &engineering management service which provides flexible solutionsfor Material Management, Engineering, and MaintenanceExecution.
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Integrated Vehicle HealthManagement
...the transformation of system data into information tosupport operational decisions that results in:
• Minimised maintenance action/time
• Enhanced operational awareness
• Improved readiness and availability
• Reduced inspections and troubleshooting
• Reduced redundancies & design margins
• Reduced schedule interruptions
• More efficient logistics operations
• Reduced environmental impact
hence creating real business benefit
…multi-sector application:
• Aerospace• Marine• Automotive• Rail
• Energy• Health
• Agriculture• Manufacturing
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Integrated Vehicle HealthManagement
• Production,certification & testing
• Total ownership costs• System & life cycle• Requirements• FMECAs• Design models• Failure modes/models• System test data
Design EngineeringManufacturing
• Maintenance Scheduling• Spares’ Supply• Asset Tracking• Maintenance Execution
Vehicle Maturation / New Product
• Operational Demand• Fleet Availability• MR & O leading
• Operational Schedule• Operational Effectiveness
Health Status
ActAcquire
Transfer
Sense
Health Status• Current• Predicted
Analyse
Asset
Data Repository& Ground Processing
Maintenance &Logistics
Operational Control
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Unscheduled and ScheduledMaintenance
Embraer – AHEAD system
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PowerDistributionUnit
HVBATTERY
ElectricalMotor
NeuralNetwork
Invertor
KalmanFilter
GearBoxWheels
PowerDissipation
CompactElectro-thermal
Rain FlowCountingAlgorithm
RUL
Torque
Ambient Temp
LifetimeModels
Lifetime Estimationof Power ElectronicModule
Cu
rrent
Vo
ltage
Reliability and Health Monitoringof Powertrains
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Case Study 1: Power Module IGBT
Repeated heating and cooling leads to repetitive mechanical stress and eventual failure.
Exposure to sustained high temperatures drives diffusion-related mechanisms (creep,intermetallic growth, annealing).
Mismatch in CTE causes fatigue failure(de-bonding) of bond wires.
CTE mismatch causes fatigue failure atsoldered interfaces.
Heatsink
Thermal GreaseCopper baseplate
Substrate SolderSubstrate
DieSolder
Wirebond
Elements of the heat transfer path ofthe power electronic module
Silicon Die
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Power Cycling Ageing Test
.
– On state collector emitter voltage (Vce) changes with different powercycling.
– The junction temperature and the collector-emitter are measured andrecorded constantly until the IGBT fails in accelerated ageing experiments.
– The failure mode involves wire bond lifting off and progressively endingbefore reaching the open circuit.
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Data Clustering
IGBT Degradation Phase Duration
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 50001
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Cycles (Times)
Vce
(Volts)
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Parameter Optimization
Using analytical maximumlikelihood estimation (MLE)method to estimate best fitof the modelling parameter λ for Poisson distribution
�
�� ��
��
�
� �����
MLE for Poisson Probability Distribution
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IGBT failure model develops usingfuzzy nature of failure mechanism
�� is chosen as the precursor parameterfrom the experiment data and this providesthe best degradation indicator incomparison with other measurableparameters.
Junction temperature ( � ) resulting from
power switching is also used with fuzzysets.
ANFIS structure uses fuzzy Sugeno modelreasoning and all parameters are optimizedusing neural networks. Structure of the Proposed ANFIS Model
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Case Study 2:Differential of anDrive Generator
• Function of Drive Generator:Transform mechanical power fromthe turbine into electrical AC powerfor the aircraft systems
• Function of the planetarytransmission:Transform a variable input speed(turbine) into a constant outputspeed (generator)
Integrated drive generator Constant Speed Drive
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Background: Failure Modes
Metal-metal contact
• Failure mode: Lack of lubrication/overload + low speed
• Consequence: Metal-metal contact at the planetary bearing
• Current detection method: Temperature threshold at the sump
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PbM: Metal-Metal ContactThermal Model
Calculate temperature distribution
– Temperature health indicator
– Temperature dependency of friction
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Thermal Model - Results
• Temperature profiles for several loadcases (combination of angular velocityand normal load)
• Maximum temperatures
– Oil
– Bearing
– Gear
120˚C
100˚C
160˚C
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Test Rigs to Provoke Failures
• Lubrication fully controlled (flow/pressure)
• Operational conditions:
– Input Speed: up to 3,000 rpm
– Crown gear speed: up to 6,000rpm
– Torque: max 276 Nm
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ComponentComponent BoardBoard SubsystemSubsystem SystemSystem
Silicon Odometer-EnhancedComponentsSilicon Odometer-EnhancedComponents
Smart Driver & BoardSmart Driver & Board Smart Multi-Agent SystemConnected VehicleSmart Multi-Agent SystemConnected Vehicle
1- Design For Prognostics &Diagnostics2- Self-Healing3- Chip Variation
1- Design For Prognostics &Diagnostics2- Self-Healing3- Chip Variation
1- Integration of tests forlow power with test forhigh power2- Prognostic constraint
1- Integration of tests forlow power with test forhigh power2- Prognostic constraint
1- Design for Similarity2- Inference Engine3- Experience Sharing
1- Design for Similarity2- Inference Engine3- Experience Sharing
1- IVHM SpecificCommunication2- Middleware
1- IVHM SpecificCommunication2- Middleware
Technical LevelTechnical Level
ECUPower ManagementECUPower ManagementD
eliv
erab
leD
eliv
erab
leO
bje
ctiv
eO
bje
ctiv
eIVHM-Enabled AutonomousSystems
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IVHM-EnabledAutonomous Systems
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Future Vision (Our Challenge)
The car that looks after itself
Self-aware assets monitor current health, reliably predictingremaining useful life and automatically reconfiguring to optimiseand plan future MRO&L actions to minimise cost.
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