project overview maia a. davis metropolitan washington council of governments (cog) 8 th...
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Adaptation to Climate Change in the National Capital Region
Project Overview
Maia A. DavisMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG)8th Mid-Atlantic Regional Planning RoundtableMarch 30, 2012
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COG Overview
Comprised of elected officials from 22 local
governments, members of the Maryland and
Virginia state legislatures, and members of
the U.S. Congress
Main policy committees:
COG Board of Directors
National Capital Region Transportation
Planning Board
Metropolitan Washington Air Quality
Committee
Climate, Energy and Environment Policy
Committee
Region Forward Coalition
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COG Climate Initiatives Background
COG Board created Climate Change Steering Committee
(2007) National Capital Region Climate Change Report (11/08)
COG Board created CEEPC - Climate, Energy
and Environment Policy Committee (2009) 2010-2012 Regional Climate and Energy Workplan (1/10)
Region Forward Compact adopted (2010) Foundation for COG’s efforts to build a sustainable
metropolitan Washington region
Draws climate related goals from Climate Change Report
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EPA Smart Growth Implementation Assistance (SGIA) Program
EPA initiated the SGIA program in 2005 with three goals in mind: Support communities interested in implementing smart
growth policies;
Create regional examples that can catalyze similar projects
in the area; and
Identify barriers, opportunities and tools
EPA provides the assistance through a contractor team – not a
grant.
In 2010, COG applied to SGIA and was awarded technical assistance
to support adaptation efforts Contractor: SRA
End Product: EPA Climate Adaptation Guidebook
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Objectives of the Climate Adaptation Guidebook
Increase understanding of the implications of climate change among planners, policymakers and officials in the Washington region
Provide tools to implement smart growth principles to improve regional resilience to climate change impacts
Focus on four sectors: water, transportation, land use and buildings
Storm surge in the Potomac and Anacostia using the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) Model (Source: National Hurricane Center)
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Project Timeline
Timeframe
Milestones
10/10 SGIA Award Announced
12/10 Technical Expert Panel identified pertinent regional climate info.
1/12-3/12 Educate COG Committees on adaptation and SGIA project
3/11 NOAA lead Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks workshop to review tools for risk and vulnerability assessment
1/11-5/11 George Mason students evaluate local govt adaptation knowledge
6/11-8/11 SRA Consultants conduct local and national policy inventory
7/11-8/11 COG conducts preliminary vulnerability assessment for four sectors
9/11 EPA, COG and SRA held four sector stakeholder workshops to identify challenges and share experiences
10/11 SRA delivers draft list of local approaches for guidebook
12/11-1/12
Draft guidebook issued for stakeholder review
5/12 Final Guidebook
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Observed Trends
Over the last century the average
temperature rose 3.3°F in DC, 1.9°F in MD,
and 0.6°F in Virginia (NOAA).
The Potomac Estuary has experienced one
foot of relative
sea level rise (NCPC, 2008).
In the Mid-Atlantic major weather events
increased 12-20% compared to the previous
century (UMD, 2008).
Projections indicate that these trends will continue at an increased
rate and lead to expanded riparian flood plains and coastal
inundation zones and more frequent droughts, heat waves and
record-setting events (IPCC, 2007; GCRP, 2009).
Streets flooded from the Potomac River in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia after Hurricane Isabel in 2003. (Source: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)
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Anticipated Climate-Related Changes
Note: Reflect trends which have already been observed in recent past and are projected to continue with high confidence, except for drought frequency (medium)
Temperature Precipitation Variability
Severe Storms
Sea Level Rise
Higher average temperatures
More frequent heat waves and days over 90° F
Fewer freezing days, and warmer nights relative to days
Precipitation concentrated into fewer events
Increased precipitation variability
Possible increased frequency of drought
Increase in intensity of coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters
Sea level rise combined with local land subsidence and storm surges.
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Potential Impacts to Sectors
Transportation: more frequent travel disruptions and increased damage from severe
events, change in infrastructure maintenance needs, and increased deterioration from
buckling and expansion due to extreme heat or freeze-and-thaw cycles.
Buildings: increased damage from weather-related events; increased demand for
emergency response; health impacts from flooding, storms, extreme heat, and more poor air
quality days; potential for water restrictions due to drought; increase in cooling costs and
small decrease in heating costs; possible changes in the lifetime of roofs and other structural
materials.
Land use: expansion of flood-prone areas, flood plains, and coastal inundation zones;
increase damage to natural areas from invasive species, flooding and heat waves; increase in
damage to or strain on infrastructure, including transportation, water, energy, and
wastewater.
Water: potential increased amount and/or frequency of sanitary sewer overflows and
combined sewer overflows; change in infrastructure maintenance needs; flood risks to
infrastructure; changes in water table that could affect septic fields; need for flood control
systems; increased demand on stormwater management systems; possible reduced water
supplies due to drought.
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Guidebook Organization
Plan for Climate Change Tools for developing a risk/vulnerability
assessment
Regional Approaches
Local Approaches Protect vulnerable areas from development Protect people and assets in vulnerable areas Encourage sustainable growth in appropriate, less vulnerable
areas
This map shows potential hot spot areas that could be inundated by projected sea level rise in the Mason Neck area of Virginia along the Potomac River. The area is currently primarily park and military lands. (Source: Northern Virginia Regional Commission)
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Local Approach Example: Survivability
Recommendation: Incorporate survivability strategies into new and existing critical infrastructure such as police stations, fire stations, hospitals, schools, and emergency shelters
Survivability = ability of buildings to maintain habitability without relying on external utility systems for power, fuel, water, or sewer services, as well as being better able to withstand floods, severe weather events, and temperature extremes.
Implementation strategies may include: highly energy efficient building combined with daylighting and natural ventilation, on-site renewable energy
Langston High School/Langston-Brown Community Center in Arlington, VA incorporates passive solar, operable windows for ventilation in the event of power failures and large rainwater cisterns. (Source: USGBC)
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Project Outcomes and Next Steps
Provided an opportunity to educate a broad range of stakeholders on climate adaptation
Identified the need for additional information on climate change impacts in the region
Spurred sectors to continue adaptation conversation
Climate impacts symposium planned (5/21/12)
Identifying and discussing vulnerabilities in small groups at NOAA Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks Training on March 3, 2011 at COG.
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http://www.mwcog.org/environment/climate/adaptation.asp
Maia A. Davis202-962-3227mdavis@mwcog.org
For additional project resources go to:
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