public opinion strategies is pleased to present key findings · nbc/wsj national survey data. 3 ....

Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys 2

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present key findings

from two national surveys of 800 actual voters conducted on

November 8, 2016. These surveys were merged, for a total of

1,600 actual voters nationally. The margin of error is +2.5%.

Please note: additional data sources are referenced

throughout this presentation, including national exit polls and

NBC/WSJ national survey data.

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4 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the COUNTRY are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten

off on the wrong track?

26%

47%

57%

43%

13%

44%

33%

64%

40% 34%

52%

82%

53% 62%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Right Direction Wrong Track

Mood of the Country—Trend Data

-38% +7% -9% -69% -9% +23%

The majority of voters felt the country was off on the wrong track by a wide margin.

-29%

5 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you

say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President?

A shift did happen in the ballot data as we closed in on the election, one in ten voters made up their mind in the last few days leading up

to the election or on election day.

Presidential Time of Vote Decision-Making 2004 2012 2016

Today/The last few days before the

election 6% 7% 10%

October 10% 14% 14% September 10% 11% 14%

Before September 67% 67% 61%

6 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year’s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot

before today, or did you vote at the polls today?

Though, a higher percentage of people continue to move towards a trend of voting early by mail, absentee, or early

polling locations before election day.

Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early 2004 2008 2012 2016

Election Day Voters 75% 66% 61% 60%

Voted Early 24% 33% 36% 40%

7 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year’s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot

before today, or did you vote at the polls today?

Democrats voted earlier than they did in 2012 in higher percentages and Republicans are also up within the margin of error.

Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early—By Party

% Election Day Voters % Total Voted Early

Republicans (32%) 61% 37%

Independents (31%) 64% 34%

Democrats (36%) 60% 36%

2012

2016

% Election Day Voters % Total Voted Early

Republicans (43%) 60% 40%

Independents (15%) 66% 34%

Democrats (40%) 56% 44%

8 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

Trump won Election Day voters. Presidential Ballot – Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early

% Election Day Voters % Total Voted Early

47% 44%

44% 48%

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

9 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

The candidates secured their votes within their bases, with Republicans representing a plurality of the vote, while Clinton

carried Independents by a narrow five points.

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

Presidential Ballot – Overall & By Party

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

TOTAL 46% 45% Republicans

(43%) 88% 5% Independents*

(15%) 34% 39% Democrats

(40%) 4% 91% *Trump (34%) Clinton (39%) Johnson (15%) Stein (6%) Other (6%)

10 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

36% 46% 50% 53% 57% 59% 52% 47% 46% 43%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

28% 36%

58% 54% 52% 55% 52% 37% 42% 45%

18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 65+

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

2012

2016

-23% -6% +3% +7% +14%

-27% -16% +21% +12% +7%

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

Presidential Ballot—By Age

11 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

57% 48%

36% 34% 43%

55%

Republican States Swing States Democratic States

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

+23% +5% -19%

The swing states decided this election.

Presidential Ballot—By Electoral Map

60% 49% 39% 37%

50% 59%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

+23% -1% -20%

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

2012

2016

12 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

55%

8% 24%

36%

86% 67%

Whites African Americans Latinos

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

+19% -78% -43%

Trump carried Whites by a larger margin than Romney, and Clinton did worse with African Americans and Latinos than Obama.

Presidential Ballot—Ethnicity

57%

6%

26% 41%

93%

72%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

+16% -87% -46%

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

2012

2016

13 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

55%

17%

36%

75%

Whites Non-Whites

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

+19% -58%

Presidential Ballot—By Whites/Non-Whites

57%

21%

41%

77%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

+16% -56%

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

2012

2016

14 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

49% 43% 40%

50%

Men Women

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

+9% -7%

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

There was a divide by gender, but not as much as 2012.

Presidential Ballot—By Gender

53% 43% 43%

55%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

+10% -12%

2012

2016

15 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

And, putting aside character or other personal issues for the presidential campaign, what one or two ISSUES were most important to you

when deciding to vote for President?

2004 2008 2012 2016

The Economy/Jobs 28% 52% 57% 30%

Health Care 13% 13% 17% 10%

National/Homeland Security 11% 4% 4% 10%

Immigration/Illegal Immigration NA NA 1% 9%

Foreign Policy 6% 5% 8% 8%

Education 3% 3% 5% 7%

Abortion—Pro-Life 6% 7% 4% 6%

Supreme Court Judges 1% NA 1% 6%

Moral Issues/Values 14% 4% 4% 5%

Taxes 5% 12% 5% 4%

Iraq—Negative 20% 8% NA NA

Most Important Vote Issue For President

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17 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

58%

22%

54%

22%

57%

21%

55%

17%

41%

78%

45%

77%

41%

77%

36%

75%

Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites

Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate

And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

Presidential Ballot—Trend by Whites/Non-Whites

+17% -56%

November 2004

+9% -55%

November 2008

+16% -56%

November 2012

+19% -58%

November 2016

18 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Among Whites Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 +13% 2004 +17% 2008 +12% 2012 +20% 2016 +21%

Among African Americans Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 -81% 2004 -77% 2008 -91% 2012 -87% 2016 -80%

Among Hispanics/Latinos Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 -27% 2004 -9% 2008 -36% 2012 -44% 2016 -36%

*Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008, 2012 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections.

Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity – EXIT POLL DATA

19 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Presidential Ballot Net Difference—By Marital Status and Gender (POS Post Elect Data)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Married Men +20% +21% +9% +22% +22%

Married Women +1% +11% +2% 0% +10%

Unmarried Men -2% -8% -24% -22% -15%

Unmarried Women -31% -25% -29% -31% -30%

20 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Presidential Ballot Net Difference—By Education/Ethnicity/Gender (POS Post Elect Data)

2008 2012 2016

Less Than College White Men +29% +33% +38%

Less Than College White Women +22% +14% +23%

College + White Men +6% +20% +14%

College + White Women -10% -2% -2%

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22 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district?

2016 Congressional Ballot— Overall & By Party

Congressional Ballot – Overall & By Party

The Republican Candidate

The Democratic Candidate

TOTAL 50% 48%

Republicans (43%) 92% 5%

Independents (15%) 43% 50%

Democrats (40%) 6% 93%

23 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district?

2016 Congressional Ballot— By Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early

% Election Day Voters % Total Voted Early

The Republican Candidate 51% 48%

The Democratic Candidate 46% 50%

24 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

49% 47%

42% 48% 50% 48%

52% 51% 50% 48%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

The Republican Candidate The Democratic Candidate

Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district?

Our post election national data shows this year was a tight race on the Congressional ballot and similar to where we were in 2000.

Congressional Ballot—Trend Data

+1% -2% -9% -5% +2%

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Bill McInturff bill@pos.org | 703.836.7655

Elizabeth Harrington

elizabeth@pos.org | 215.753.7655