public, private and social housing in post-crisis east asia richard ronald r.ronald@uva.nl urban...

Public, Private and Social Public, Private and Social Housing in Post-crisis Housing in Post-crisis

East AsiaEast Asia

Richard Ronald r.ronald@uva.nl

Urban Studies University of Amsterdam

Different Housing PathwaysDifferent Housing Pathways

• European social housing problematised, stigmatized and residualised since 1980s

• Transformation of housing associations into self financing, market facing social enterprises

• Public housing provision (of a more social nature) revitalized in East Asia since 1998 (especially after 2008)

• But why is policy socializing and how manifesting differently in each country?

The Origins of Housing PolicyThe Origins of Housing Policy• Colonial legacies, the presence of China

and the desire to ‘catch up’

• Policy goals under ‘Developmental’ States – shaped public housing policy: house workers,

extend urban infrastructure, realise potential land values, sustain employment & rapid growth

• Housing policy in ‘Productivist’ regimes – welfare state expansion either sacrificed or

focused on economic objectives (Holliday 2000; Kwon, 2005)

• Deep Interventions: Public housing rather than Social housing: – commodified (Private) rather than de-

commodifying (Doling 1999, Groves et al 2007)

Examples: Singapore & Hong KongExamples: Singapore & Hong Kong

• Singapore (HDB)– Owner-occupied 29% to 92% (1970-2002)– Public sector 83%+ of all housing– CPF circuits of capital– Regulated second hand market

• Hong Kong (HKHA)– Public rental build & slum clearance 1970s– Keeping wages low and welfare state small

through public housing (Castells et al,1990) – Shift to HOS policies in 1980s and 90s– In 2009 29% Public rental, 16% public HOS

• Public Housing policy as main Pillar of Welfare, Urban & Economic Policy

• Comparable approaches: Japan (1950s & 60s) Taiwan (70s-90s), China (90s-2000s)

Asian Financial Crisis!Asian Financial Crisis!

• Watershed moment in East Asian socioeconomic pathway

• End of rapid growth, high/full employment era

• Undermined asset and real estate values

• Tested security and adequacy of welfare measures

The New Policy The New Policy LandscapeLandscape

• New role of developmental state in slower growth era (Kharas & Gill 2009)

• Ongoing processes of neoliberalization

• Socioeconomic polarization (kakusa shakai)

• Democratization and intensified political contestation

• Era of in-affordability & house price volatility

• The state as competent housing provider

2008 and the ‘Global’ Crisis!2008 and the ‘Global’ Crisis!HouseHouse price fluctuationsprice fluctuations

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-10

-5

0

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%

China Hong Kong Japan Singapore South Korea Taiwan

Taiwan – new social housingTaiwan – new social housing

• Long term promotion of home ownership (67% to 82%,1976-2000)

• Less than 0.8% public rental housing

• Two major periods of house price inflation in 1987-1990 and 2005+

• Snails without Shells - The Social Housing Promotion Alliance

• Late-2010 New luxury tax on quick sales of 2nd homes (Chen 2011)

• 5 new social rental housing projects

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-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

GDP growth rate (%) Percent of unemployed to labor force (%)

South Korea’s Hybrid South Korea’s Hybrid social housing sectorsocial housing sector

• Supply focus: 10.7 million housing units constructed 1989-2007

• 1970s short term lets; Permanent public housing program (1989) Fixed-tenure rental (5-, 10-, 30- & 50-year) 1990 and 2000s

• 1998-2008 (Kim & Roh) Market reforms and one million new social housing program - shortage over but rising housing market inequalities

• 2008 Bogeumjari program: 1.5 million units - 53% rental 47% subsidized purchase

• Public rental housing <7.5% of housing 2000; 9.7% 2008, expected 12%+ by 2018

Housing policy plan (supply) 2009-2018Housing policy plan (supply) 2009-2018

Category Supplied Units

(expected) Income Residency Period Description

Homeownership 700,000 Permanent Mid to small-sized affordable housing

Public Rental Housing

200,000 10-year - Transfer (via sale) to homeownership after 10-year rental - Home-share step-repayment

Chonsei scheme 100,000

Deciles 3 to 5

10-20 year - No monthly rental fees - Inner-city neighborhoods

National Rental Housing

400,000 Deciles 2 to 4 30-year - Affordability: 60 to 70% of market price - Sliding scale on household income - Optional payment: Chonsei or monthly rental fees

Rental Housing

Permanent Rental Housing

100,000 Decile 1 No limit - 3% of market rent - Funding source from government direct subsidy

Total 1,500,000

Social and Affordable Social and Affordable Housing in ChinaHousing in China

• Post-1980 economic reform led by housing market reform (urban H.O. grows 18%-82% 1980-2004)

• Work Unit Housing abolished (1998) for commercial housing; affordable housing; government assisted rental

• Uneven public measures & house price inflation = housing market polarisation & economic instability

• The ‘comfortable society’ making access to quality dwelling a universal ‘basic housing right’

• New housing policy implementation framework; spending 1% GDP on affordable housing by 2020

New DirectionsNew DirectionsThe end of an era and the beginning of the nextThe end of an era and the beginning of the next

• Changes in Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan?

• Demographic and family change; New political, democratic and socioeconomic context

• Capacity and demand to expand public provision

• Building new social housing models or adapting the market to serve emerging developmentalism

• Lessons for Europe? tapping housing wealth; failed Asset based welfare (Doling and Ronald 2010, 2011, Ronald and Doling 2010, 2012)