q2 2013 virginia quarterly report
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VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se
cond
Qu
arte
r
2011
Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
SEC
ON
DQU
ARTE
R20
13Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Num
ber o
f Sin
gle
Fam
ily, T
ownh
ome
and
Con
do S
ales
Month
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2010 2011 2012 2013
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,4682011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,7582012 5,068 5,775 7,213 7,698 9,064 9,740 8,664 9,026 7,212 7,258 7,403 6,9102013 5,560 5,911 7,427 8,602 10,383 10,514
The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 11% higher than the second quarter of 2012. This significant year-over-year increase reflects relatively high sales in May 2013. There were 29,499 home sales in Virginia in the second quarter of 2013, 2,997 more sales than in the second quarter of 2012.
April 2013 (+11.7% YOY) had a moderate year-over-year improvement, while May 2013 (+14.6% YOY) showed extremely strong year-over-year gains in home sales. Sales leveled off in June 2013, so July numbers may indicate whether we will continue to see signs of further recovery this year.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 3
16,541
27,733
20,798
18,558
17,105
24,906
23,001
19,099 18,056
26,502
24,902
21,571
18,898
29,499
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Num
ber o
f Sin
gle
Fam
ily, T
ownh
ome
and
Con
do S
ales
Quarter
Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
In the second quarter we experienced a sharp increase in home sales and a significant year-over-year increase. So far this year, sales have surpassed 2010 sales, indicating that the market is performing better on its own than it did with significant tax incentives in 2010.
+11%YOY
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 4
90,703
93,279
87,921
83,630 84,194
81,367
83,570 84,11185,062
86,65888,559
91,031 91,873
94,870
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Num
ber o
f Sin
gle
Fam
ily, T
ownh
ome
and
Con
do S
ales
Quarter
Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph highlights that our housing market is performing better than it did in the second quarter of 2010 when the market received a boost from tax incentives. Surpassing market performance in 2010 without the tax credits is an important milestone in Virginia’s market recovery.
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q2 figure (94,870 sales) includes home sales from 2012-Q3 through 2013-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.
This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over 4 quarters of annualized data.
Post Tax-Credit DeclineMARKET RECOVERY!
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 5
Region 2012-Q2 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 1,437 1,601 11.4%
Central Virginia 4,210 4,589 9.0%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 5,835 6,363 9.0%
Northern Virginia 12,412 13,945 12.4%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,902 2,210 16.2%
Southside Virginia 399 430 7.8%Southwest Virginia 307 355 15.6%
All of Virginia 26,502 29,493 11.3%
Central Valley+11.4%
Northern Virginia+12.4%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+16.2%
Southwest Virginia+15.6% Southside Virginia
+7.8%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
+9.0%
Central Virginia+9.0%
Regional Changes in Sales2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2 Units
The significant increase in home sales this quarter was experienced throughout the state. Every region saw significant increases in sales. Notably, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg area, the Central Valley and Southside experienced very high sales after a slower first quarter. In addition, the year-over-year increases in these areas are among the highest in the state.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 6
$225
,000 $2
39,9
00
$249
,900
$232
,500
$210
,000
$232
,694
$235
,000
$220
,000
$215
,000
$249
,500
$248
,000
$241
,000
$232
,600
$269
,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Med
ian
Sale
s Pr
ice
Quarter
Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.8% over the past year to $269,000 for all residential sales. This increase represents a strong, steady climb and does not reflect the steep and possibly volatile price increases that have been reported in some parts of the nation. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 12.1% over the past three years, as measured by second quarter sales data.
+12.1%
+7.8%
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 7
Region 2012-Q2 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley $210,000 $220,000 4.8%
Central Virginia $185,500 $200,000 7.8%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $204,900 $211,900 3.4%
Northern Virginia $355,000 $385,000 8.5%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $156,987 $165,000 5.1%
Southside Virginia $87,500 $81,524 -6.8%Southwest Virginia $115,000 $114,000 -0.9%
All of Virginia $249,500 269,000 7.8%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg+5.1%
Central Valley+4.8%
Northern Virginia+8.5%
Southwest Virginia-0.9% Southside Virginia
-6.8%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
+3.4%
Central Virginia+7.8%
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2
Nearly every region in Virginia is now experiencing increases in median sales prices. Large numbers of sales mean these numbers reflect the volume of sales in each region. The regions colored in green are experiencing steady increases in price, evidence of a healthy market recovery. Prices in Southwest Virginia may be stabilizing. Southside’s continued decline in prices, despite the market’s continued recovery is evidence of the region’s overall economic context.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 8
4,553
8,198
6,410
5,446
4,503
7,307
6,789
5,275
4,866
8,197
7,684
6,465
5,482
9,736
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs o
f Res
iden
tial S
ales
Quarter
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2013 ($9.7B) was a strong 18% increase from the second quarter of 2010 ($8.2B). This comparison is important because the 2013 housing market has advanced beyond the 2010 second quarter volume, without the help of the tax credits that boosted the spring 2010 numbers.
18% YOY
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 9
86
7982
91
104
94 93
100103
85 8488
91
71
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Aver
age
Day
s O
n M
arke
t
Quarter
Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Time on market decreased 16% from the second quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the second quarter of 2013 (10% fewer days on the market than the second quarter fo 2010). In June, homes stayed on the market an average of 64 days. The market is moving homes extremely fast, faster than it has since August of 2006.
-10%YOY
-16%YOY
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 10
2,980
7,127
6,622
4,657
2,987
3,555
990
440
89
52
3,048
7,058
5,987
4,007
2,376
2,908
709
302
69
42
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000
0 - $100K
$100K - $200K
$200K - $300K
$300K - $400K
$400K - $500K
$500K - $750K
$750K - $1M
$1M - $1.5M
$1.5M - $2M
$2M +
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Pric
e R
ange
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2012-Q2 2013-Q2
+24%
+29%
+46%
+40%
+22%
+26%
+16%
+11%
-2%
+1%
Home sales increased in all price ranges, except the $0-$100K range during the second quarter of 2013, as compared to the second quarter of 2012. The decline in the $0-$100K range is likely the result of declining inventory in this range which inflates generally rising home prices. It is very likely that some homes that were previously in the $0-$100K price range have moved up into the $100-$200K range.
The ranges from $100K to $400K seem to have stabilized, while the upper end of the market seems to be experiencing a revival. The ranges $750K-$1M and $1M-$1.5M experienced extremely large year-over-year increases in sales, 40% and 46% respectively.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 11
Region 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 62 58 -6%
Central Virginia 302 377 25%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 498 494 -1%
Northern Virginia 650 595 -8%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 67 65 -3%
Southside Virginia 37 27 -27%Southwest Virginia 24 16 -33%
All of Virginia 1,640 1,632 0%
Central Valley-6%
Northern Virginia-8%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-3%
Southwest Virginia-33% Southside Virginia
-27%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay
-1%
Central Virginia+25%
Regional Changes in Foreclosures2013-Q1 vs. 2013-Q2
Foreclosures held steady in Virginia this quarter. Most regions experienced fewer foreclosures, but Central Virginia experienced a significant spike in foreclosures. If the number of foreclosures continue to decrease throughout 2013, the added inventory from foreclosures will begin to clear.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 12
9,06410,383
399,000459,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13(p)
May-13(p)
Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$250,000$267,000
$180,200$208,700
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13(p)
May-13(p)
Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
Median sales prices in Virginia have remained more stable than in the United States as a whole. Prices in Virginia have increased slightly more this year (22% from January to May) compared to the US as a whole (19% from January to May), but still basically track the US numbers.
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both United States (existing home sales only) and Virginia sales continued to increase into the second quarter and experienced a modest year over year increase.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 13
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2013
(U.S. rate = 7.6 percent)
14.0% and over
12.0% to 13.9%
10.0% to 11.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
6 0% t 7 9%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
6.0% to 7.9%
4.0% to 5.9%
3.9% or below
7.4%7.1% 6.9% 6.7%
6.4% 6.5% 6.6%6.2%
5.9% 6.0% 5.9%5.6%
5.3%
4%5%5%6%6%7%7%8%8%
2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1
Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease into the second quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in May. Virginia’s unemployment remains low despite some economic stressors over second quarter. Although we are not back to pre-recession rates, we are well on our way.
2013-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2013 data.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 14
4.91%
4.45% 4.41%
4.85%4.66%
4.31%
4.01% 3.92%3.80%
3.54%3.36%
3.50%3.69%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
4.3%
3.9%3.8%
4.1%
3.9%
3.5%3.3%
3.2%3.0%
2.8%2.7% 2.7%
2.9%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
Mortgage interest rates increased slightly in the second quarter of 2013. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low. Since unemployment remains low and interest rates are beginning to rise, some opportunistic buyers may begin to enter the market.
2013-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 15
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.
All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:
Stacey Ricks, Director of Public RelationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.comwww.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley:
Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Southside Virginia:
Southwest Virginia:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City
Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex
Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York
Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City
Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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