qget -- scenarios analysis quality growth efficiency toolsnovember 14, 1998 november 15, 1999...

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Strategy Analysis

Prepared for:

Envision Utah

Prepared by:

Quality Growth Efficiency Tools (QGET)Technical Committee

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Overview

ContributorsLimitationsContext

MotivationsChallenges

Strategy Analysis

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Contributors

• 88 Cities• 10 Counties• 2 Metropolitan Planning

Organizations• 5 State Agencies• Psomas Engineering• Fregonese Calthorpe

Associates

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Limitations• Work in progress• Conservative estimate of benefits• Prepared at the regional scale

– Site or project specific inferences should not be made

• Limited scope– Transportation, air quality, land use,

water, and infrastructure costs

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Quality Growth Strategy

Insert FREGOs last slide - 3D QGS

Layers:

Constrained LandsCritical LandsInfrastructureCenters and CorridorsNew Developed LandsRe-Developed Lands

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Baseline

• Salient Characteristics– Refinement of past work (2nd revision)– Includes the addition of approximately

one million more people by 2020– Snapshot of the future based on state

and regional plans– Based on trends of the past 20-30 years

Depicts how the region is likely to develop based on

recent plans

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Strategy

• Salient Characteristics– Includes addition of approximately one million more people– Depicts impacts of voluntary, interjurisdictional

cooperation– Reflects market-based housing mix– Requires additional water conservation and telework– Consistent with previously expected population and

employment trends at the county-level– Requires incremental changes from current development

patterns

Depicts how the region is likely to develop based on adherence to Envision

Utah’s goals and strategies

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

The pursuit of this strategy is motivated by the common and regional nature of many of our challenges. We share the same roads, airshed, water resources, and natural assets. We have an enviable quality of life, but we have major challenges.

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Challenge #1: Congestion

Seattle34%

San Diego58%

Portland33%

Las Vegas64%

Salt Lake City59%

Denver27%Los Angeles

29%

San Francisco32%

Dallas32%

Boston21%

New York17%Chicago

31%

St. Louis27%

Atlanta36%

Miami28%

Minneapolis47%

Percent Increase in Roadway Congestion: 1982-1996

*Congestion levels are estimated based on cars per road spaceSource: Texas Transportation Institute. Urban Roadway Congestion: 1998

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Challenge #2: Air Quality

16

22

5

20

9

24 4

9

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Nu

mb

er

of

Un

he

alt

hfu

l D

ays

SLC-Ogden Metro Area

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Challenge #3: Housing Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Utah U.S.

Housing Price Index for Repeat-Sales of Existing Homes

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Challenge #4: Loss of Farm Land

-0.3%

-6.6%

-15.8%

-9.9%

12.0%

-25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0%

Weber

Utah

Salt Lake

Davis

State

Ch

an

ge

in Ir

rig

ate

d C

rop

lan

ds

1982-1997

Source: 1982 & 1997 Census of Agriculture

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Challenge #5: Infrastructure Costs

Infrastructure Costs

Collector $6 Million/Mile

Arterial $16 Million/Mile

Light Rail $20 Million/Mile

Water

Transmission $690 Thou/Mile

Sewer

Transmission $70 per Foot

State of Utah appropriated$955 Million in FY 2000for Transportation and

Water Projects

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Strategy Analysis

Land Use -- Conserves More LandHousing -- Provides More Choice, Market DrivenTransportation -- More Efficient, Less CongestionAir Quality -- Lower EmissionsWater Demand -- Reduces ConsumptionInfrastructure Cost -- Requires Less Money

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Land Consumption

370 370

695

524

325

154

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Baseline Strategy

Sq

uar

e M

iles

Current Developed Area Developed Area: 2020

New Developed Area Since 1998

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Agricultural Land Converted to Urban Use

143

27

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Baseline

Strategy

Square Miles

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Housing Mix: Current and 2020

71% 73%67%

9% 9% 11%

20% 18%22%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Current Baseline Strategy

Per

cen

t o

f T

ota

l H

ou

sin

g

Single Family Townhouse/Duplex Apartment/Condo

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Day:Current and 2020

40.7

79.2 76.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Current Baseline Strategy

Mil

es i

n M

illi

on

s

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Transportation Investment: 1997-2020

$15.6

$12.2

$0.3

$1.7

0

6

12

18

Baseline -- $15.9 Strategy -- $13.9

Bil

lio

ns

of

Do

llar

s

Regional and Sub-Regional Roads Regional Transit

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Population Within 1/2 Mile of Rail Transit: 2020

45,557

608,490

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Baseline Strategy

Po

pu

lati

on

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Transportation Comparison

Percent Difference Between Strategy and Baseline: 2020

37.5%

-5.2%

12.5%

-3.4%

-3.0%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Transit Trips

Average Trip Time

Average Peak Speed

VMT/Capita

VMT

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Total Emissions: Current and 2020

1,869

2,634 2,541

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Current Baseline Strategy

To

ns

Per

Day

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Emissions ComparisonPercent Difference Between Strategy and

Baseline: 2020

-7.3%

-3.5%

-8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%

MobileEmissions

Total Emissions

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Water Demand: Current and 2020

1,008,800915,600

698,800

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Current Baseline Strategy

Acr

e F

eet

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Per Capita Water Use: Current and 2020

Current Baseline Strategy

319298

267

Gallons Per Day

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Total Infrastructure Costs: 1998-2020

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Baseline Strategy

Bill

ion

s 1

99

9 D

olla

rs

Roads Transit Water Other (Sewer, Utilities)

$26.5

$21.9

QGET -- Scenarios AnalysisQuality Growth Efficiency Tools November 14, 1998

November 15, 1999

Quality Growth Commission and Envision Utah

• Dedicated to preserving quality of life present in Utah

• Jointly funded six quality growth demonstration projects

• Envision Utah will benefit from Commission’s work in the coming months to define quality growth

• Continued collaboration is essential