rain prediction

Rain Prediction

Chief Editor : HH RP Bhakti Raghava SwamiE-mail : Bhakti.Raghava.Swami@pamho.net Date Produced : February 12, 2017Serial No : 7 of 54

RAIN PREDICTIONGOVARDHAN ECOVILLAGE

“Forecasting and validation of rainfall forecast for Barshi (M.S) based on astrometeorological principle of rainfall conception.”

VARAHMIHIRA 555-70 AD

Prediction Of Monsoon Rains1. Our ancestors knew that life will be

impossible without water 2. They knew that amount of rains and

planets, stars have some connection with each other

3. Like Parasara muni, Aryabhatta, Varahmihira found out the science to predict and measure rains

Prediction Of Monsoon RainsA. Factors followed by Sankhya

process/Analytical studies are -Study of sunPlace of stars and planetsNakshatra /Constellation cycle studyNadi/ Pulse cycle study

Prediction Of Monsoon RainsB. Observation methods studies following

factorsChange in environmentObservation of sky and clouds in skyPhysical changesChemical changesStudy of biological indicators

Symptoms At Advent Of Monsoon

• Flowering in plants is directly related to seed formation

• Knowing the duration of flowering and ripening of seeds beginning of rains can be predicted. E.g.: Neem, Mango, Palasa, Karanja, Amaltas etc.

1) Ripening of Seeds

PALASA

NEEM

Rains come exactly 45 days after Bahava (Amaltas). Observation table is as follows

AssessmentYear

Date of flowering in

Amaltas

Predicted Date of onset ofmonsoon

ActualDate of onset of

Monsoon2008 29 April 13 June 14 June

2009 20 April 4 June 1 June

2010 22 April 6 June 9 June

2011 30 April 14 June 17 June

2012 26 April 10 June 8 June

2013 29 April 3 June 14 June

Symptoms At Advent Of Monsoon

• Rains in Kharif season can be predicted by nests of crows.

2) Crows

Indicator of low rains Indicator of medium rains Indicator of excess rains

Location of Nest at the thorny, small and thin plants like babool

Location of Nest at trees with many leaves E.g.- Mango

Location of Nest at trees with many leaves E.g.- Mango

Near the peaks Top thickets Opposite to the direction of rain

Middle thickets Middle thicket In thickets near trunk

Lower thickets Thickets in direction of rain

Symptoms At Advent Of Monsoon

• For Rabi plantation the rain near October can be predicted by the nest of Titavi bird

• Titavi bird lays eggs on ground. If nest is near to water this means rain won’t increase the water level much i.e. rain will be less

• When nest is high up in place that means water level in pond is going to rise to that level, hence that much rain will happen

3) Titavi Bird

SYMPTOMS JUST BEFORE RAINFALL

Symptoms Just Before Rainfall

Before actual rainfall , nature speaks in her own language

•Biological•Physical

Symptoms Just Before Rainfall

a) Biological Language

• Biological Language means the message from the behaviour of living beings.

• This behaviour is like growing of plants, flowering, fructifying, falling of leaves, dormancy of leaves etc.

• Black ants - Approximately 12 hour before rain, black ants start to take their egg up on high level to protect them from water.

• Goats - Generally goat eats the terminal leaves of tress/bushes. But 2-3 days before rainfall goat eat the leaves near base rather than terminal leaves.

Biological

Language

Scientific reason: Near rains the plants produce some chemical which might be changing the taste of leaves. Not liking the taste of leaves goat does not eat more leaves.

• Red Ants - Approximately two days before rain red ants are seen to change the structure of their ant hill

• Common sparrow, Crows, Pigeons - Seeing these birds take bath in dust in evening, understand that next day is going to rain

Biological

Language

• Chatur insects - When Chatur insect flies at a height of 8 feet in the sky means rain won't fall for 7/8 hours

• As the height of flight of Chatur decreases, the time of rainfall is nearing. Before actual rainfall this insects start to sit on ground. This is applicable to Crows also

• Chameleon- When Chameleon starts to climb on tree/bush to see the sky on its head, changes colour to red/purple then rain will start after 3 hour.

Biological Language

• Sheep's - When Sheep's start sniffing ground or stop grazing and clump together then rains will begin after 3-4 hours.

Biological

Language

Message Possibility of rainsDust bath of common Sparrows Good rains

Frog croaks at the beginning of June It is going to rain soon Peacock constantly cry That day/next day rain

Cows moo at night and Wolves cry in day Severe draught

Camel forces north, Crow scratches nest with feet. Goat stands without

grazing.Rain is just about to begin

Birds take bath in moon lit days in the month of June Excess Rain

Chameleon climbs on trees and changes colour black, white, red Rain is just about to begin

Symptoms Just Before Rainfall

b) Physical Language

• Colour band / Light rays in sky gives direction : Physical language means “Pastimes of Light”.

• The colours VIBGYOR are refracted in different angles and form bands these bands gives us message.

• Refraction of light of horizon: Horizon is approx 25-30 km from us. We see various colour bands of horizon of sunrise or sunset, because light is retracted maximum at that time.

Physical Language

• Light coming from clouds or planets behind fog : Planets or stars in sky sometimes look clear, sometimes big or appear hidden in white film

• Winds: Winds flowing to us sometimes feel pleasurable, sometimes pinching, sometimes hot or cold, sometimes humid or dry

• Taste and smell in atmosphere: If we seek, we smell many fragrances in air. Some sounds reach us

• Though we can’t directly perceive the taste in atmosphere, the flavour from fragrances tell the taste of substances in air

Physical Language

The Tatihari bird lays its eggs directly on soil without building a nest. If she lays the eggs on higher ground a heavy rainy season is in store

If her eggs are laid in lower ground a drought is predicted

The number of eggs also predicts the weather. One egg means one month of rain out of the four months of the planting season. Two eggs means two months of rain and four eggs show that it will rain for the four months of the season

SYMPTOMS OF ENDING OF RAINS

• At the end of rains frost settles on leaves. At the rain ending leaves at the height of 5’ 7’ become wet like sweat

Frosting

• Ending of rains and beginning of winter occur simultaneously. In morning white vapours are seen to emerge from pond. This means rains have stopped

White vapours above pond

• At the time of frosting of leaves in early morning light worms are seen to increase very much in number

Light worms

SYMPTOMS OF ENDING OF RAINS

• Large groups flying overhead during the migration season indicates good weather

Birds

• Birds pigeon and karava lay eggs in wells in nest. Knowing that now rains have ended so water won’t rise again, these birds lay eggs in nest in well

Nest in Well

SYMPTOMS OF ENDING OF RAINS

WINDS FORECASTING RAINS

Two ways of prediction from winds :Two main instances are given for rain

prediction. 1) One is Tithi/ Lunar day dependent on Holi

and Akshay tritiya 2) Second is moon constellation dependent

Rohini Swati or Purva Ashadha constellation

Winds of Akshay Tritiya

Winds of Holi are seen after sunset, but winds of Akshay tritiya before sunset

These winds should be seen at twilight period

How to see the such wind is told by Durvasa Muni

Winds of Akshay TritiyaEach 24 minutes wind forecast

monthly rains. Prediction of each month is like follows:

1st 0-24 min - June / Jyestha2nd 24- 48 min – July/ Ashadha

3rd 48 - 72 min - Aug / Shravan

4th 72 - 96 min - Sept/ Bhadrapad

Winds of Akshay TritiyaOne should start to see the winds on Akshay

Tritiya day 96 min before sunrise early in morning

One can use dhup/ incense sticks to see the winds

Setting up the Compass

Seeing the wind direction and taking readings

Readings : 2012-2013 and 2014

Illustration

Thank you !

ISKCON Daiva Varnasrama Ministry Promoting Rural

Development in India www.iskconvarnasrama.com

OM Sri Surabhi Campaignwww.srisurabhi.org

Om Sri Surabhyai Namah !

ABOUT THE EDITORName HH RP Bhakti Raghava Swami

Age and Gender 71, Male  Country/Province of Origin Canada, Ontario Educational Degree and Year B.A, 1968, M.Ed., 2004  Educational Institution State University of Yogyakarta Professional Work/Experience Social Worker/Counselor Affiliation with ISKCON Since 1974 Present Service in ISKCON Minister, IDVM-India