randomized quantile residuals: an omnibus model diagnostic...
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Randomized Quantile Residuals: an Omnibus ModelDiagnostic Tool with Unified Reference Distribution
Longhai Li
Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoon, SK, CANADA
Presented on 19 June 2017Xiamen University, China
Acknowledgements
Joint work with Alireza Sadeghpour and Cindy X. Feng.
The work was supported by grants from Natural Sciences andEngineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and CanadaFoundation for Innovation (CFI).
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Non-normal Regression Models
3 Pearson and Deviance Residuals
4 Randomized Quantile Residual
5 Simulation StudiesDetection of Non-linearityDetection of Zero-Inflation
6 Application to a Big Health Dataset
7 Conclusion and Discussion
Section 1
Introduction
Introduction
Examining residuals, such as Pearson and deviance residuals, is aprimary method to identify the discrepancies between models anddata and to assess the overall goodness-of-fit of a model. In normallinear regression, both of these residuals coincide and are normallydistributed;
However, in non-normal regression models, the residuals are far fromnormality, with residuals aligning nearly parallel curves according todistinct response values, which imposes great challenges for visualinspection.
Randomized quantile residual was proposed by Dunn and Smyth(1996) to circumvent the above-mentioned problems in traditionalresiduals.
Randomized quantile residual is still lack of applications in practice.We will demonstrate how good it is.
1. Introduction/ 1/36
A First Look at Three Residuals
Pearson
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−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−1
01
23
45
x
Pea
rson
Deviance
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−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5−
2−
10
12
3
x
Dev
ianc
e
Randomized Quantile
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−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−3
−2
−1
01
23
x
Ran
dom
ized
Qua
ntile
A simulated dataset is checked against the corrected model. However,Pearson and deviance residuals exhibit trend and cluster in lines.
In addition, the often used χ2 tests are not well-calibrated.
Randomized quantile residuals can be checked as traditional residualsfor normal regression.
1. Introduction/ 2/36
Section 2
Non-normal Regression Models
Generalized Linear Model
Generalized Linear Model (GLM): The GLM assumes that a responsevariable yi given xi follows a non-normal distribution, such as Poissonand Gamma, etc. A unified form for the PDF is:
f (yi ; θi , φ) = exp
{yiθi − b(θi )
a(φ)+ c(yi , φ)
}. (1)
A link function is used to connect the conditional expected value ofthe response variable, µi = E (yi |xi ), to a linear combination of thecovariates and regression parameters as,
g(µi ) = ηi = xiβ. (2)
2. Non-normal Regression Models/ 3/36
Zero-Inflated Models: I
Zero-Inflated Model: In practice, very often, we have excessive zerosin count data, which might not be captured by a conventional GLMmodel. One popular approach to model such data is to use a mixtureof point mass at zero modelling the non-risk group (structural zeros)and a GLM modelling the at-risk group.Example:The zero-inflated Poisson response variable with parameters λi andpi , denoted by ZIP(λi , pi ), is defined as:
yi ∼
{δ0 with probability pi
Poisson(λi ) with probability 1− pi ,(3)
2. Non-normal Regression Models/ 4/36
Zero-Inflated Models: II
The PMF of the ZIP distribution:
dzip(yi = 0) = pi + (1− pi )e−λi (4)
dzip(yi = j) = (1− pi )e−λiλji
j!, j = 1, 2, · · · . (5)
The CDF of the ZIP distribution
pzip(yi = J;λi , pi ) =J∑
j=0
dzip(yi = j) = pi +(1−pi )ppois(J, λi ), (6)
Links of pi and λi to covariates
logit(pi ) = ziγ and log(λi ) = xiβ, (7)
where zi and xi are vectors of explanatory variables for pi and λi withγ and β corresponding to their parameter vectors, respectively.
2. Non-normal Regression Models/ 5/36
Section 3
Pearson and Deviance Residuals
Pearson and Deviance Residuals
Pearson residual is defined as
ri =yi − µ̂i√V̂ (yi )
. (8)
The deviance residual for the ith observation is defined as signedsquare root of the corresponding component of D (y ; µ̂), i.e.
di = sign(yi − µ̂i )√
2{ωi
[yi (θ̃i − θ̂i )− b(θ̃i ) + b(θ̂i )
]}, (9)
where θ̃i and θ̂i denote the parameters in the saturated and fittedmodels, respectively.
3. Pearson and Deviance Residuals/ 6/36
Problems with Traditional Residuals
In regression models for discrete outcomes, the residuals are far fromnormality, with residuals aligning nearly parallel curves according todistinct response values, which poses great challenges for visualinspection. Therefore, residual plots for the diagnosis of models fordiscrete outcome variables give very limited meaningful informationfor model diagnosis, which renders it of no practical use.
The Pearson χ2 statistic is written as, X 2 =∑n
i=1 r2i , and the
deviance (χ2 statistic) is written as, D =∑n
i=1 d2i . The asymptotic
distribution of D and X 2 under the true model is often assumed to beχ2n−p, where n is the sample size and p is the number of parameters.
However, the use of this asymptotic distribution for both X 2 and Dappears lack of theoretical underpinning.
3. Pearson and Deviance Residuals/ 7/36
Section 4
Randomized Quantile Residual
Definition of Randomized Quantile Residual
Predictive p-value for continuous yi :
F (yi ; µ̂i , φ̂) = P(Yi ≤ yi | µ̂i , φ̂)
Randomized predictive p-valueIf F is discrete, the estimated lower tail probability is randomized intoa uniform random number.
F ∗(yi ; µ̂i , φ̂, ui ) = F (yi−; µ̂i , φ̂) + ui d(yi ; µ̂i , φ̂), (10)
where ui from uniform distribution on (0, 1], F (yi−; µ̂i , φ̂) is the lowerlimit of F at yi , i.e., supy<yi F (y ; µ̂i , φ̂), the lower limit in the “gap”
of F (·, µ̂i , φ̂) at yi .
Randomized quantile residual
qi = Φ−1(F ∗(yi ; µ̂i , φ̂, ui )) (11)
where Φ−1 is the quantile function of a standard normal distribution
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 8/36
Illustrative Example #1: I
The true model for yi has the PMF:
yi 0 1 2
d0(yi ) 0.25 0.5 0.25(12)
We compare with a wrong model with PMF d1:
yi 0 1 2
d1(yi ) 0.1 0.8 0.1(13)
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 9/36
Illustrative Example #1: II
Figure 2: The randomized predictive p-value for the true model and the wrongmodel.
(a) F ∗ for true model (b) F̃ ∗ for wrong model
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 10/36
Illustrative Example #2: I
The true model:We simulate a response variable of size n = 1000 from a Poissonmodel with
log(µi ) = −1 + 2sin(2xi ),
where µi is the expected mean count for the ith subject andxi ∼ Uniform(0, 2π), i = 1, · · · , nA wrong model:Poisson model with mean structure
log(µi ) = β0 + β1xi
with xi as a predictor with linear effect.
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 11/36
Illustrative Example #2: II
CDF linesThe CDF of the response variable Yi given xi (under a consideredmodel with parameters estimated with sample) is denoted byF (k|xi ) = P(Yi ≤ k |xi ), for k = 0, 1, · · · .An illustrative picture
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 12/36
Illustrative Example #2: III
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 13/36
Normality of Randomized Quantile Residual (RQR)
Theorem
Suppose a continuous random variable Y has the CDF F (y), then F (Y ) isuniformly distributed on (0,1].
Theorem
Suppose the true distribution of Yi given Xi has the CDF F (yi ;µi , φ) andPMF d(yi ;µi , φ), where µi is a function of Xi involving the modelparameters. The randomized lower tail probability F ∗(yi ;µi , φ, ui ) isdefined as F (yi−;µi , φ) + ui d(yi ;µi , φ) (10). Suppose Ui is uniformlydistributed on (0,1]. Then, we have
F ∗(Yi ;µi , φ,Ui ) ∼ Uniform(0, 1], (14)
andqi = φ−1(F ∗(Yi ;µi , φ,Ui )) ∼ N(0, 1). (15)
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 14/36
Proof of Normality of RQR
For any interval B ⊆ (0, 1],
P(F ∗(Yi ;µi , φ,Ui ) ∈ B|Yi = k(j)) =length(F (j) ∩ B)
p(j),
where length(·) is the length of interval. By the law of total probability,
P(F ∗(Yi ;µi , φ,Ui ) ∈ B) (16)
=∞∑j=1
P(F ∗(Yi ;µi , φ,Ui ) ∈ B|Yi = k(j))× P(Yi = k(j)) (17)
=∞∑j=1
length(F (j) ∩ B)
p(j)× p(j) (18)
=∞∑j=1
length(F (j) ∩ B) (19)
= length(∪∞j=1F(j) ∩ B) = length(B) (20)
4. Randomized Quantile Residual/ 15/36
Section 5
Simulation Studies
Subsection 1
Detection of Non-linearity
Simulation Setup
We simulate a covariate x ∼ Uniform(−1.5, 1.5) of size n = 1000.
The response variable is simulated from a negative binomialregression model
log(µi ) = β0 + β1x2i ,
where µi is the expected count for the ith subject.
Then, we consider fitting a wrong model assuming
log(µi ) = β0 + β1xi .
We set β0 = 0, β1 = 1.
The reciprocal for the dispersion parameter associated with thenegative binomial distribution is set as k = 2.
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Non-linearity 16/36
Scatterplots of Residuals for a Single DatasetPearson
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−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−1
01
23
45
x
Pea
rson
Deviance
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12
3x
Ran
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5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Non-linearity 17/36
QQ-plots of Residuals for a Single Dataset
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23
45
Pearson
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3−
2−
10
12
3
Deviance
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
●
●
●
●
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●
●
●
●
●
●
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●
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
01
23
Randomized Quantile
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
02
46
8
Pearson
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
●
●
●
●
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●
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●
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−1
01
23
Deviance
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
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ntile
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
01
23
Randomized Quantile
Theoretical QuantilesS
ampl
e Q
uant
iles
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Non-linearity 18/36
Replicated Overall GOF Checking with Normality TestPearson
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
DevianceDeviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00
2000
6000
1000
0
Randomized QuantileRandomized Quantile
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
030
050
0
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Deviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Randomized Quantile
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00
2000
6000
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Non-linearity 19/36
Replicated Overall GOF Checking with χ2 Test
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
040
060
080
0Deviance
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00
2000
6000
1000
0 Randomized Quantile
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
040
060
080
0
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000 Deviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000 Randomized Quantile
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
040
060
080
010
00
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Non-linearity 20/36
Subsection 2
Detection of Zero-Inflation
Simulation Setup
We simulate a data set of size 1000 with a covariate x from a uniformdistribution over (−1, 2) and the response variable from a ZIP model,where the expected mean of the Poisson component is
log(λi ) = β0 + β1xi
A Poisson model with the same expected mean λi is used as anwrong model to compare the power of various residuals.
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Zero-Inflation 21/36
Scatterplots of Residuals for a Single Dataset
Pearson
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−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
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05
xR
ando
miz
ed Q
uant
ile
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Zero-Inflation 22/36
QQ-plots of Residuals for a Single Dataset
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
02
46
Pearson
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
01
23
Deviance
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
●
●
●
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
01
23
Randomized Quantile
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−5
05
Pearson
Theoretical Quantiles
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−15
−10
−5
05
Deviance
Theoretical Quantiles
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−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−15
−10
−5
05
Randomized Quantile
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Zero-Inflation 23/36
Replicated Overall GOF Checking with Normality Test
PearsonPearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
DevianceDeviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Randomized QuantileRandomized Quantile
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
020
030
040
050
0
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Deviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Randomized Quantile
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Zero-Inflation 24/36
Replicated Overall GOF Checking with χ2 Test
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
030
050
070
0
Deviance
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Randomized Quantile
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
030
050
0
Pearson
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Deviance
p−value
Fre
quen
cy
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
Randomized Quantile
p−valueF
requ
ency
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
020
0060
0010
000
5. Simulation Studies/Detection of Zero-Inflation 25/36
Section 6
Application to a Big Health Dataset
Data Description
We apply the randomized quantile residual to examine thegoodness-of-fits of the above mentioned more flexible models in alarge survey dataset on 4406 individuals, which was collected by theNational Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) for studying thedemand of health care of the elderly in the United States.
The response considered is the number of emergency departmentvisits.
The covariates include health measures: self-perceived health, thenumber of chronic conditions, and a measure of disability status;demographic variables: age, race, sex, marital status, education andregion; economic variables: family income, employment status,supplementary private insurance status, and public insurance status.
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 26/36
List of Variables
Variable Definition
Emer number of emergency department visitsExclhlth =1 if self-perceived health is excellentAvghlth =1 if self-perceived health is averagePoorhlth =1 if self-perceived health is poorNumchron number of chronic conditions (cancer, heart attack, gall bladder problems,
emphysema, arthritis, diabetes, other heart disease)Adldiff =1 if the person has a condition that limits activities of daily livingNoreast =1 if the person lives in the northeastern USMidwest =1 if the person lives in the midwestern USWest =1 if the person lives in the western USAge age in years (divided by 10)Black =1 if the person is African AmericanMale =1 if the person is maleMarried =1 if the person is marriedSchool number of years of educationFaminc family income in 10,000Employed =1 if the person is employedPrivins =1 if the person is covered by private health insuranceMedicaid =1 if the person is covered by Medicaid
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 27/36
Histogram of Numbers of Emergency Visits
Figure 12: Frequency distribution for the number of emergency department visits.
Number of emergency room visits
Fre
quen
cy
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
010
0020
0030
00
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 28/36
Four Fitted Models for Further Diagnosis
We may suspect that there are over-dispersion and/or excessive zerocounts; therefore, we consider fitting four models:
PoissonNegative Binomial (NB)Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) andZero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB)
Comparing models with Akaike Information CriterionPoisson=5648, NB=5352, ZIP=5418 and ZINB=5354
AIC can be used to compare the goodness-of-fit of competing models,but it cannot tell
whether a model fits the data adequately,whether the distribution assumption in the response variable is valid.
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 29/36
Scatterplots of Residuals for Poisson and ZIPPearson
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
05
1015
Poisson
Fitted values
Pea
rson
Res
idua
ls
Deviance
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0−
20
24
6
Poisson
Fitted values
Dev
ianc
e R
esid
uals
Randomized Quantile
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−6
−4
−2
02
46
Poisson
Fitted values
Ran
dom
ized
Qua
ntile
Res
idua
ls
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
02
46
810
12
ZIP
Fitted values
Pea
rson
Res
idua
ls
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
02
46
ZIP
Fitted values
Dev
ianc
e R
esid
uals
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−6
−4
−2
02
46
ZIP
Fitted valuesR
ando
miz
ed Q
uant
ile R
esid
uals
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 30/36
Scatterplots of Residuals for NB and ZINB
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
02
46
810
12
NB
Fitted values
Pea
rson
Res
idua
ls
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−1
01
23
4
NB
Fitted valuesD
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−6
−4
−2
02
46
NB
Fitted values
Ran
dom
ized
Qua
ntile
Res
idua
ls
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
02
46
810
12
ZINB
Fitted values
Pea
rson
Res
idua
ls
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−1
01
23
4
ZINB
Fitted values
Dev
ianc
e R
esid
uals
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0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
−6
−4
−2
02
46
ZINB
Fitted valuesR
ando
miz
ed Q
uant
ile R
esid
uals
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 31/36
QQ-plots of Residuals for Poisson and ZIPPearson
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−2 0 2
−2
02
46
Poisson
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
ntile
s
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Theoretical Quantiles
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−2 0 2
02
46
ZIP
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
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−2 0 2
−2
02
46
ZIP
Theoretical QuantilesS
ampl
e Q
uant
iles
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 32/36
QQ-plots of Residuals for NB and ZINB
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−2 0 2
02
46
810
12
NB
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
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s
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01
23
4
NB
Theoretical QuantilesS
ampl
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02
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Theoretical Quantiles
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−2 0 2
02
46
810
12
ZINB
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
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−2 0 2
−1
01
23
4
ZINB
Theoretical Quantiles
Sam
ple
Qua
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s
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−2 0 2
−2
02
4
ZINB
Theoretical QuantilesS
ampl
e Q
uant
iles
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 33/36
Replicated Normality Test p-values of RQR
Figure 17: Frequency of the p-values of the Shaprio-Wilk normality test for the 1000replicated randomized quantile residuals.
Poisson
Shaprio−Wilk p−value
Freq
uenc
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
020
030
040
0NB
Shaprio−Wilk p−value
Freq
uenc
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
2030
4050
6070
ZIP
Shaprio−Wilk p−value
Freq
uenc
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
020
030
040
050
0
ZINB
Shaprio−Wilk p−value
Freq
uenc
y
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
010
2030
4050
60
6. Application to a Big Health Dataset/ 34/36
Section 7
Conclusion and Discussion
Conclusion
Model diagnosis in non-normal regression is very important but difficult.This paper empirically demonstrates that randomized quantile residual isan excellent diagnostic tool: We have empirically demonstrated that
under any true model, randomized residual quantiles are normaldistributed.
the overall GOF tests by applying normality test to randomizedquantile residuals are well-calibrated
randomized quantile residual has great power in detecting many kindsof model inadequacy
7. Conclusion and Discussion/ 35/36
Future work
Randomized quantile residual can be applied to mixed-effect modelsfor data with complex structures, such as clustered, temporal, andlongitudinal data. We are working to develop residual-based modeldiagnostic tools for widely used R packages such as lme4, and mgcv
packages in R.
Randomized quantile residual can be applied to check hierarchicalBayesian models for datasets with complex structure, as analternative of the widely used posterior predictive checking.
Utilize randomized quantile residual in many contemporaryapplications, such as in diagnosing mixed-effect models forhigh-throughput data.
7. Conclusion and Discussion/ 36/36
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