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8/4/2019 Recasting Social Democracy in Europe: "Nested Games" and Rational choices in the Strategic Adjustment Process (…
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I
ABSTRACT
The a r t i c l e i s an at tempt to so lve a " ra t i dna l choice" puzzlewi th a "nes ted games" answer. The da ta i s d r a ~ ~ r o m four s o c i a l
democrat ic p a r t i e s , alII o f which face a nUmberl ofl r a the r s im i l a r
s t r a t e g i c dilemmas and I pol icy cho ices . Whi le l a l l four of t hesecases eventual ly found : the i r way to a " v o t e - m a ~ i m ~ z i n g " s t r a t egy ,each par ty undertook a r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t journeyl The Spani sh PSOEand th e Swedish SAP a d j ~ s t e d t h e i r pol icy pos i t ior ts and e lec to ra ls t r a t egy r e l a t i v e l y smoothly and with little i n t r a -pa r t y tu rmoi l .
Not so th e Br i t i sh Labopr Par ty and th e G e r m a n ! s p ~ . Both par t i e ssu f fe red i n t e rna l s t r i f e , defec t ions and e lec to ra l l o s ses . Why• I I Isuch d ~ v e r g e n c e s ? The nes ted games approach al iows us to focus onth e s t r a t e g i c choices of i n t r a -pa r t y p layers a n hbw t h e i r choices
a re shaped by i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e t t i n g s . The a r t i c l e sugges ts t h a tth e prefe rences and pos i t ion o f th e unions r e p r ~ s e h t i n g workers indecl in ing and u n c o m p ~ t i t i v e i ndus t r i e s ins ide I these par t i e sexp la ins , to a l a rge e x te n t , the degree o f d i f f l c u i t y in adjus t ing
to new e lec to ra l condi t i ions . The more entrenched I r e p re s e n ta t i ve sfrom such unions a re irt th e par ty , the more res i s t ance t he r e wi l l
be to pol icy a d j u s t m e n t ~ and s t r a t e g i c changes u n f ~ v o r a b l e to t he i rmembers and union organ iza t ions . I· I
II
I
II
I
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I 1
I I
Recas t ing SQcial DemQcracy in EurQpe; "Nested GameS" and Rat iona l! I, I
Choices in th e s t r a t eg ic Adaptat ion Process. I I
A ll ma jQr working I class-based par t i e s , soc i a l demoqrat ic ,
I i I
s o c i a l i s t o r otherwise , I face s im i l a r se t s Qf d i ] ~ ~ a s . On the one
I I'hand, they are r equ i red Ito respond to changing ec.onomic cond i t ions
. I: I
which c u r t a i l t h e i r a b i l i t y to increase governmJntal expendi tures .
socia l democracy faces In "ef f ic iency challenge" I ~ r i m the pol i t i ca l
, , : Ir i g h t , not only in terms o f whether the w e l f a ~ e s t a t e funct ions
I I ! I
e f fec t i ve l y o r squander i t axpayers ' money f r i v O l ~ U , l Y b u t a l so from
i n d u s t r i a l i n t e r e s t s which succeeded in p o r t ~ a y i n g governmentalI I! I .
i n t e rven t ion in th e ecpnomy as a drag on e c o l o m ~ c growth. (Offe ,
1984; scharpf , 1987) Redis t r ibu t ive s oc i a l demJcra t ic po l i c i e s
, I! I
are no longer popular ,when the extens ion of b e n ~ f its to working
I I I
c l a s s groups through soc i a l , incomes and i ndus t r i a l po l i c i e s are
viewed as detr imental Ito both economy and t fe ~ a j O r i t y of the
e l ec t o ra t e .I I
On th e o t h e r hand working c lass -based p a ~ t i r s are forced to
respond to soc i a l changes in terms Qf a s h i f t . ~ . w a I Y from t he b lue -I ! I
c o l l a r , unionized workforce to a much more het,erolgenous base both
I I I
in terms o f occupa t io , and values . (Dunleavy jndl Husbands, 1985;
Przeworski and spraguel ' 1986) White -co l la r w q ~ k ~ r s , s tuden t s and
I I · !
profess iona l s a re aSI, if not more, impor tant as e l e c t o r a l
I I: I
c ons t i tuencies than b l ue -co l l a r workers . The "pos t -mate r i a l "! I, I
chal lenge to working qlass -based par t i e s may ' fary from count ry to
I ! I
count ry in seve r i t y , blut th e he a r t of th e mat te r i s no t whetherI, I
" p o s t - ~ t e r i a l i s t s " e l i s t or not b ~ t h e ~ socia l d ~ o c r a t i c
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par t ies can adapt Jo new pol i t i ca l demands and issues ra i sed by
• I" I • I k 1groups o u t s ~ d e of the blue-co l l a r b a s e . ( K ~ t s c h e l t , 1990; Mer e ,
1990) As Adam ~ r z l w o r s k i notes , not only is soc ia l democrat ic
policy a t s t a k ~ , \ I bu t i t s ent i re e lec tora l and po l it i c a l
I ' . . \ . 1 d t 's t r a t e g y . ( p r z e w o ~ s ~ ~ , 1985) W h ~ c h groups shfuld s o c ~ a emocra ~ par t ies appeal td : ,Jts t rad i t iona l base or other soc ia l groups?
This s tudy I,is'l I an at tempt to explain \ a "ra t iona l choice"
puzzle . Given tJatl"lvarious working class-bJsed pa r t i e s are faced
, "1 I i I . , I dw ~ t h s ~ m ~ a r s e t ~ of s t r a t e g ~ c q u e s t ~ o n s , why do they respon so
di f fe ren t ly to t h ~ S ~ \ chal lenges in t he i r a d ~ u s t m e n t process? The
d\ 1\ . . ,I" 't's t u y focuses on four maJor soct.aj, d e m o c r a t ~ ' c p a r t ~ e s an B r aan ,
Germany, Spain ~ n I Sweden. All four p a ~ t i e s have undergone
' t t ' t J . I 1 . I d . I' h ' ,ad JUs men s ~ u e ~ r e lec tora s t r a t e g ~ e s an po ~ c c o ~ c e s ~ response to soc ia l ~ ~ economic change. TheJe i s in fac t only one
"ra t iona l " choicelir i l terms of e lec to ra l s t raJegy for these pa r t i e s
i f we pos i t t h a t Jo l l t i c a l par t ies want to wJn e lec t ions and adopt
,., L \ , , d d \ 't' tvot e - m a x ~ m ~ z ~ n g s:... r a t . e g ~ e s an or e r to 0 ,so. Now, as no1 ,I '
surpris ing t ha t lall! four par t ies have irldeed discovered th e
i l I. , I '1 d 'e 1ect ora11y most p r o m ~ s ~ n g s t ra tegy . However, s o c ~ a an e c o n o m ~ c condi t ions have deeh
lsuch t ha t t h i s s t ra teJy has been the only
, t ' 11 \ .J • 1 h ' f I, r. - t 'o r g a n ~ z a ~ o n a y r a t ~ o n a c o ~ c e or some t ~ m e . nua ~ " f I I I , 1 h' It ' . th t .t hs u r p r ~ s ~ n g , rom a ' ; - a t ~ o n a c o ~ c e " perspec ~ v e , ~ a as
I I . , \, dt ak en some 0 f theS
Ip a r t ~ e s a very long t ~ m e to d ~ s c o v e r and a op t
the vote-maximizing l l ec to ra l approach. Ea6h party has taken a
d i s t i nc t route to tWe same des t ina t ion . The Spanish s oc i a l i s t
Party (PSOE) adoptedJhe ra t iona l , vote-maXimilzing s t ra tegy in 1982
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without much i n t e rna l ,urmoi l or e lec tora l d e l ~ c 1 i o n s . Swedish
Socia l Democrats (SAP) have mad€ th e change t o r the s t ra tegy in a
s imilar ly smooth t ransiFion. The German SOCial: oLmocratic Party
. d d . f f . It .SPO) , on the othe r hand, has exper1ence maJor I l 1 1CU 1es 1n
. . i / . . /1 I . harr1v1ng a t the r a t onal s t ra tegy . The Br1t1sh. Labour Par ty as
I II Ihad th e roughest of t i m ~ s e lec tora l ly and organiza t iona l ly in i t s
. . .1 t t . 1981 I i Ipath t 0 a vo t e-max1m1Z1r9 s ra egy S1nce . I I
The research quest ion i s : why do some. IPart ies adjus t
I I :re la t ive ly smoothly to Inew economic and soc i a l 17onditions whereas
othe r par t i e s experience grea t s t i ck i ness in ' t J e i r ef for t s toI l i I
adjus t? Why do some par t i e s take so much longer to see the l i g h t
I / Ithan others? Why do they seem unconcerned abouf massive e lec to ra l
losses and pursue e lecJora l s t r a t eg ie s and P O l i ~ i L s a t t r a c t i v e to
I I Ionly a smal l sec t ion of the e lec tora te? The ~ ~ e s i s developed in/ ' I ' /t h i s a r t i c l e focuses on the s t ra teg ic choices a 'c t i rs with in soc i a l
democratic par t ies f lce when deal ing with !I their int ra-par ty
opponents. The a r g u m e ~ t i s tha t adaptat ion iSI :m1re d i f f i cu l t fo r
par t i e s with a s t ronJ organiza t ional connection to b lue-co l la r
. . d I . . . Id
. d I . Iii If'un10ns 1n ec 1n1ng 1n us t r1es an re at1ve y, smooth or par t1es
. th t . It ' l ' d d f I i I. . d l' .W1 a grea e r ozqarn.aa a.ona an epen ence rom una.ons an ec a.m.nq
I I! iindus t r ies .
I I i I
The fol lowing a ~ t i c l e deals with only 0ne explanat ion .
I I !
Explanat ions focusing Ion s t ruc tu ra l i m p e d i m e n ~ s to e lec to ra l and
pol icy adjustment are/ 'mentioned br ie f ly as aJe those focusing on
r a t iona l vote-maximizat ion. Both schools of th./
oug /
h t a re dismissedI , .I ' lI
since they can eXPlail one type of response hi' b t the other in a
! I :
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I .(thereby losing the i r character as a work1ng class lpar ty) .
! I i I
On the other hand, Isocial democratic part ies fjace a ser ies of
I IIpolicy dilemmas which I overlap with the i r eriect10ral strategy
problem. Policy preferences re f lec t the in terests , of whoever theI . I !
intended voters are . I I f the party r e m a i ~ ~ jWedded to i t s
t radi t ional policies (commitments to welfare statel· expansion, jobI I i
protect ion, economic grrwth, wage e g a l i t a r i a n i s ~ ) lit i s l i k e l ~ ' to
remain stuck with i t s I'established base but l i t t i e support fromI' I
't d Ld Li ,Igroups beyond 1. oncel the party eC1 es to P I ~ s l e new po 1c1es,
it i s l ike ly to appeall to new social groups ~ ' : l t le ss so to i t s
t radi t ional base. The Ichoices social democratic Ja r t i e s face areI I I I
i l lus t ra ted in the f o l ~ o w i n g four matrix box: I i [I , I
Table I : I Electoral Strategy I
Recapture working class Appeal to other groups
I 1I
Appeal on I -Workerism - S o c ~ a l Democracyt radi t ional -Socialism II
Iolic ies '
I
Policy i i i
I It rategy I
Appeal on -Popular -Rainbow Coali t ionnew polic ies Authoritarianism - ~ o v e r n m e n t
FiarfY Strategy
Adapted from: Ivor Crewe, "The Decline of Labor and the Decline ofLabour", paper p r e s e n t ~ d a t the APSA, San Franbispo, August 1990.
! I I
Some of these pojl i.cy and elec tora l s t ra teJy choices offe r
I i
al ternat ives . I f a p a ~ t y chooses to appeal to i t s establ ished base
II •I '
with t radi t ional pol ic tes , then the party may I ~ so ei ther with a
penchant for social ism (nat ional izat ion , econdmia autarcky, s ta teI I I
planning) or with polic ies designed to pro tec t fa i l ing indus t r ies ,, I I
jobs and the soc ia l w ~ l f a r e programs which were Idesigned to helpI i
I I
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I
workers in such in 'dustries while maintaining capi ta l ism. I f a
par ty chooses to a ~ J e a l to new soc ia l groupJ with new pol ic ies it
may do so by e i the rl
\appealing to the soc ia l pro te s t movements and
environmental is t giJups ( to build a "rainl)ow" coa l i t ion as the
Dutch Social is t p a r t ~ (PvdA) has done), or ~ may experiment with
a very broad range ~ pol ic ies designed to a t t r a c t the white co l l a r
workers, professioriAls and " p o s t - m a t e r i a l i ~ t " voters . (Wolinetz,
1988; Crewe, 1990) \ ~ "government par ty" skrategy of fe r s a vas t
range of pol ic ies d ~ l s i g n e d to a t t r a c t as b r ~ a d a range of soc ia l
.I 11
d . a 1 th par yroups. It may anc u e envazonaentIl'
po 1C1es. . f et '
1S
threatened by a Grlen Party; it may p r o ~ i d e for l i be r t a r i an
pol ic ies i f a l i b e r ~ ~ par ty competes with sodia l democrats for the
• \ I \ I ,1ntended e lec tora l t a rge t . The "government party" s t ra tegy 1S
, I
reminiscent of Lipse i ' s "end of ideology" because soc ia l democracy,.,ab andons any pretens10n of be1ng a work1ng c lass party and adopts
. .. t h Illi I l' . I ., d' t' ta c 1aSS1C ca c -a i po 1CY potpourr1. However, 1 t 1S 1S 1nc
from the soc ia l dem6dratic "catch-al l" s t r a t lgy of the 1950's and
60' s s ince it appeall,s to groups outs ide of \ the white and blue
co l la r working c l a s ~ e s . The aim i s to bJ i ld an even broader
I
I I I
soc ia l /e lec tora l coai l i t ion than soc ia l democracy by offer ing
"something fo r! I
ever,yone" to match the\
e lec tora l appeal of
conservat ive parties':. I I,
II. h th I .th 1 1 ' .ppea1s t 0 the work1ng c la s s , weer W1 0 d po 1C1es orI I
wi th new ones (such I as "law and order" , Jence the subheading
popular author i t a r i Jn i sm) , are l ike ly lo be e lec to ra l ly
I I \counterproduct ive. (Crewe, 1990) Since the .t r ad i t iona l working
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c lass base has shrunk, re l iance on the old ' base i s only a
"ra t iona l " s t ra t egy i f ti lhe par ty means to be a h e ~ r e s e n t a t i ve ofI ,
the blue-co l l a r working c lass with no pretensionis of captur ing
' t · I ,I I I· 't I ! , k ' tpo l ~ c power v ~ an/e ec tora m a J o r ~ y. P f ~ e ~ o r s sugges s
t ha t working c lass par t i e s gave up any pretension f represent ingi 1
purely one c lass as soon as they enteffd I parl iamentary
competi t ion. (prZeWOrSkij', 1985) Socia l d e m o c r a c ~ , i s the at tempt to
I ' Iprovide pol ic ies fo r groups outs ide of the working c lass as well as
I II
a broad coa l i t ion between white and blue-co l l a r J o r ~ e r s . ( K e S s e l m a n , I i
1982)I ;, '
As the fol lowing typology ind ica tes , the , f o ~ r par t ies under
, 't· I I • t II I t t '~ n v e s t ~ g a r.on a l opted fo r the 'governmen par ty I t s ra egy ~ I i; I
recent years . However I' two par t ies meandered ir.om "social ism" toI I
"soc ia l democracy" to t he i r f ina l des t ina t ion . Labour t rave l led inI i
ldissar ray ; the Spanish jPSOE underwent a s imi la r t fansformat ion in
a much less div i s ive anr more coherent manner. I (h i German SPD and
the Swedish SAP moved I from t r ad i t iona l soc ia l democracy to th e
"government par ty" s t ra tegy , but also on diverJenJ paths . The SPDI I I
underwentcons iderable! internal upheaval whereas ~ h SAP underwent
l i t t l e in te rna l f i9ht i ig over the s t ra tegic C h ~ ~ 9 ~ . Table I I : Electora l s t ra teg ies I
Strategy 1: Socialism s t ra tegy 2:1 Sopial Democracy
Labour 1 9 7 9 - ~ 7 Labour119174-79
PSOE 1975-'78 PSOE I 1979-82SAP 19/75-82
SPD 1'19,74-87I
s t ra tegy 3: P o p u l ~ r s t ra tegy 4:1 Government par tyA u t h o r i ~ a r i a n i s m ! I StrategyL a b o u ~ 1 ~ 8 8 - p r e s e n t PSOE 1 ~ 8 2 - p r e s e n t
SAP . 1 ~ 8 2 - p r e s e n t SPD 1 88-present
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The Case of s t i cky ITransformations; Bri t i sh Labour and Germany's
\
Both L a b o u ~ and the SPO e x p e r i e n c ~ d a very d i f f i c u l t, I
It ransformat ion f ~ o m \ t h e i r pOlic ies of the 1950 's to 70'S to th e
I \ \ . I Ott d tgovernment party! s t ra tegy . Both p a r t ~ e s were c o m m ~ e 0
t r a d i t i ona l s o c ~ a l i \ democratic s t r a t eg ie s and appealed to a
combination of b l u ~ \ and white co l la r worke+s throughout most of
th i s per iod . r n l t J l 1970 's both par t i e s sJ f fe red major i n t e rna l
upheavals in t e b m ~ \ of in t ra -par ty s t r U g ~ l e S leading to the
defect ion of s ing l f i J an t groups of ac t i v i s t s , par ty po l i t i c ians andI i I
vote r s . (Koelble , ~ 9 9 i ) The s t ruggle revolved around the i s sue of
which soc i a l g r o ~ p s \ a n d in te re s t s th e par t J ought to represent :
ithose in deClinibg II indus t r i es who were a ~ V e r S e l Y af fec ted by
economic t r a n s f o ~ a i l o n or those in ~ h PublJc and pr iva te sec tors
who were doing r e ~ a t J v e l Y wel l and/or those JhO were concerned not
l't ' th ' \ II . t .floJUs w ~ s s u e s of e c o n o m ~ c growth bu l e-s ty e ~ s s u e s (environment, femJnilm, c iv i l r igh t s , d e f e n S ~ ) as wel l .
The I n t e r n a ~ : . Istruggle over party I policy. personnel
appointments and ~ a ~ ~ y ru les was so severe In both cases t h a t it
lead to th e emergJncW of chal lenging par t i e s Iformed by the losers
I II \of th e s t ruggle and subsequent defec tors . (Koe]ble, 1987: 1991) The
I \ I
e lec to ra l defea t s b f both Labour and th e SPO lin 1983 and 1987 can
l I \ :
be a t t r i bu ted , a t l e a s t par t i a l ly , to the emergence of these smal l
par t i e s . The S O c i ~ 1 1 b e m o c r a t i c Party (SOP) In Bri ta in emerged as
a r e s u l t of theI i \
leftward d r i f t of the:
Labour Party towards a
I I \ Is oc i a l i s t economic iporicy, whereas the Green Party responded to th e
I
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dominance of the party lleadershiP in the SPO W h i ~ ~ JOOk issues sue:
as environmental protecfion, the nuclear protesh mtvement and the
peace i ssue l e s s se r ious ly than the soc ia l m o v e ~ e n f supporters in
Ithe I to . The I , "1SPO thought they 0 igh t r e s u l t of Fre organ1zat10na
and e l ec t o ra l s p l i t in both cases led f" ') a I cOlli·nterproduct ive
I , ,
outcome: e l ec t o ra l defea t and a long per10d of conservat1ve
I I I
government. I I 1
Both part ies haVer since thei r electoral d1feats in 1987 .
lr e t h o ~ g h t t h e i r policy packages and e lec to ra l s t r a t eg ie s . The SPO,I! I
has become fa r more rec,eptive to the i ssues of hhe soc i a l p ro t e s t
,I ,. ' , tIl'movement and has 1ncorporated an Lnnovatn.ve em,·:"Zilonmen a po 1CY
I I !
platform in to i t s par ty program.(Padgett , 19891)1 IEqUallY, Labour
adjusted i t s policy stJategy. The Labour Party ,OliCY Review of
1989 could wel l be mistlken for the po l i c i e s o f ~ ~ r e d by th e Socia l
I I i IDemocratic Party in 1981 , sp iced up with pol ic ies designed to
I II I
a t t r a c t homebuyers, upwardly mobile whi te -col la r workers and
I I Iprofess iona l s ! (Crewe, 1990) In othe r words'l b i th pa r t i e s a re
at tempt ing to recapture l o s t vote r s via the government par ty
i " h! . I ' ts t ra t egy •. Th e sec re t 10 success , 1 t 1S oped, l i s a non-SOC1a 1S
economic pol icy ( l e s s I in te rvent ion in the economy, more marketI i i I
mechanisms, temp£red erivironmental po l i c i e s , a: l e s s ac t ive soc i a l
I I 1
and incomes pol icy , I less progress ive taxat1.'on to s t imula te
III
investment and economic growth) coupled with a commitment toI I i I
represent not only those in te re s t s in soc ie ty ~ h i b h have sufferedI I I I
as a r e s u l t o f economic adjustment bu t also thoJe sec tors which
I I I I
have benef i t t ed . Never the less , th e journey towards t h i s so lu t ionIII I
I I
I
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10
.1
I !II,
was extremely d ~ f f ~ c u 1 t and marked by a long per iod out of
I ! I I
government, externa l I chal lenges and in te rna l I discord .I 'I II II
The Case of Smooth Transformat ions: the Spanish PSOE and Sweden's
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11
I
to a d jus t to changing in l ternat ional market condi t ions by lowering
I i I
product ion cos t s ( l e S j s oc i a l expendi ture , II!e sl's wages, l ess
t axa t ion progre s s iv i t y ) . (T i l ton , 1990) Th e s t rugg le was won by th e
I I 'adjus tment proponents , u t not a t th e expense 19f organ iza t iona l
d i s in t e g ra t i on o r s i gn i f i can t e l ec t o ra l losses 1 ( ~ S I of th e t ime of
w r i t i ng ! ) . Simi lar ly the remarkable t r a n s f o r m a , t ~ o n o f the PSOEI I I I
from a s o c i a l i s t to a s oc i a l democrat ic to a mild ly I reformist par ty
I I I
in Spain d id no t invd1lve se r ious defec t ions . (Gi l le sp ie , 1988 ;
II IWill iams, 1988) The e l ec t o ra l s t ra tegy deve10ped by Fel ipe
I I I I
Gonzales and h is CIOSejt advisor Alfonso G u e r l ~ a i was acepted by
almost a l l sect ions Of! the party with 11 t t l e I ~ P i ' S i t ion . (Share.
1989) I I
Orthodox Explanat ions; St ruc tura l Limits o r Correc t and In c o r re c t
I II I
I Choices II I
Two approaches dbminate the f i e ld of 'Icom,'parative par tyI I ,
p o l i t i c s . Since t h i s essay i s supposed to be an e f f o r t in theory
I I I I
app l i ca t ion r a t he r than c r i t i que o f o ther approaches, I w i l l only
I ! I
br i e f ly descr ibe t h e i r major hypotheses and s ~ o r l t c o m i n g s . Many
Ir
I '
authors have argued t h a t par t i e s depend on thel . r soc i a l base .I" I I I I' ,Butle r and Stokes sugges t t h a t l.f th e soc t af base dec anes an
I II I
numbers, as has done I the working c l a s s , t h e ~ th e e l e c t o r a l
performance o f th e par ty i s going to dec l ine as ~ e l l . ( B u t l e r and
I I ' IStokes , 1969) While n o t a l l authors agree with t h i s cor re l a t i on ,
, I i I
the re are many who view, par t i e s as essen t i a l l y I ' t r ~ p p e d - if n o t in• I I
a soc i a l base then in r n economic cont rad ic t ion . I Przeworski and
I I Io thers have sugges ted t h a t soc i a l democracy i s r ea l ly noth ing more
I
I
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I
than an i n a d e ~ a t e working c lass response to capi ta l i sm.
(Przeworski , 1 9 8 ~ ) bocia l democracy dependsl on a ce r t a in type of
I , I " f thOwelfare capi t a l i m and once the econceu.c u n d e r p ~ n r & ~ n g s 0 as
! I I"s tage of capi ta l i sm" d isappears , so does the "soc ia l democrat ic
1984) expl 'c o m p r o m ~ s e . " (Offe, ! such approaches I a ~ q u , t e we11 th e
I ! \ \ , fproblems of Labour and SPO, but do l ess well w ~ t h th e success 0
I : I 'h i t ' d ' thPSOE and SAP. U S I ~ a l l Y these p a r t ~ e s are c arac e r ~ z e e e r as
untypica l of w o r k i ; n ~ blass based par t i e s ( the Ispanish "se l l -ou t" o r
Scand " It.iI. or on th e b'1nk 0f decI '1ne.naV1an excep 10na11sm)
I \ \
Other authors d isagree with the notion t ha t pa r t i e s are
wedded to t he i r s o b i ~ ~ base. Ivor Crewe mainJains t h a t the dec l ine
. I ,I Iof the Labour p a r t \ ~ i s not due to s t ruc tu ra l s h i f t s in the
i l , I. (e 1ec t ora te or the soc1al base bu t due to b e h a v ~ o r a l reasons. Crewe,
1990) Simply puJ, ! ~ h e par ty has fa l len o J t of favor with the
e lec tora te becaus l ~ l l · s pol icy pos i t ions do \ no t correspond with
. . I I I· f I ' 'tpopu1a r oparn.on , (Crewe, 1990) The par ty 1S out 0 ane r 1
. , I I j . If th 1 t ' .represen t s m 1 n o r 1 ~ y 1nteres t s of a sect10n 0 e popu a 10n 1n
declining regions lnd I industr ies of Bri ta in . fhe party can reverse
i t s fortunes i f it! ad6p ts a be t te r , more su i tab le pol icy package.
· d I II· 'hi", ,Gos t a Esp1ng-An e r senessen t1a l ly agrees W1t !th1s po1nt of V1ew 1n
h . Lvs i f th J il " , 1 d I. . 1 '1S ana YS1S 0 . scandanavaan SOC1a emocrat1c par t1es . Po 1CY
choices a re crucJa i I in explaining why s o ~ e pa r t i e s do well
I I I Ie lec to ra l ly and others do not .(Esping-Andersen, 1985)
Each approach! o t ~ e r s a powerful a n a l Y S i ~ of par ty behavior .
While both approacJeJ lcan adequately expla in J i t he r the dec l ine of
, 'I I Isome part1es o r the success of others , each approach has a problem.
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For the "soc ia l base" argument the f ac t t ha t the Spanish and
SWedish s oc i a l bases hive shrunk j u s t as much11a, th e German o r
Bri t i sh b lue -c o l l a r working c l a s s i s i n c o n v e n i e ~ t . l · The e l ec t o ra l
I I i
success of these par t i e s desp i t e a shrinkage in l th ie i r t r ad i t i ona l
cons t i tuency appears t J lend suppor t to th e ~ e s i s t h a t par t i e s
which a d jus t to socib-economic change q u i C ~ 1 1 wi l l survive
e l ec t o ra l l y . However, ~ dec l ine of Labour andlkPD are n ot simply
"wrong pol icy choices" bu t are expl icable only J i t J a r e fe rence to
th e heterogenizat ion o f l t h e i r e l e c to r a t e s and t J Jesu l t ing s p l i t s
, th ' t ' t I ' II b I th t 'W1 1n no JUs th e I t rade un10n movements a t e par 1es
themselves over which e l ec t o ra l cons t i tuenc ies l in Je res ts ought to
be shaping pol icy p r i o ~ i t i e s . ( D u n l e a V Y and H u s ~ ~ n d s , 1985)
Both approaches ignore an impor tan t v a r i a J ~ e i - th e i n t ens i t y
and outcomes of in t ra -p l r ty conf l i c t s over e l ec t b ra l s t r a t eg ie s and
ho i t' , 1 d d II th ' , 1po I 1CY c 01ces . Par 1es are not s1mp y epen en t on e1 r SOC1a
bases . Nei ther a re t he J capable o f simply a d o P t ~ ~ g i vote-maximizing
s t r a t eg ie s s ince they a ~ not pure ly r a t i ona l , i l e c to r a l machines.
1
Rather , they c o n s i s t ! o f ind iv idual p layers II iwll.o engage in a
' , I · ImuIt1tude of 1nt ra -pa r ty as w ~ l l as ex te rna l c a l c u l a t i ons . The
, r I
' , h d , I d Ii h ' .Iques t 10n 1S: w 0 e te rnunes party s t ra tegy a.n,. po cy c o rcesI I i
ins ide th e p o l i t i c a l 'par ty? What are t h e i r Imajor p o l i t i c a l
i n t e r e s t s and aims? wAiCh s e t of incent ives a l rhey most l ike ly
to respond to? Which I arena of in te rac t ion 1, the par ty or theI :
I :
e lec to ra l arena - ar 'eI they more in te res ted in? How are these
groups affec ted by the l n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s l ~ f t h e i r respec t ive
par t i es?I :
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i 14
Nested Games I i OrgJnizat ioos and Intra-par ty Actors
George TSebeliSibroVided a powerful meanJ of analysing reasons
why par t ies sometibes opt for c o u n t e r ~ r o d u c t i v e e lec to ra l
s t ra tegies . (TSebeJ i ,11990) The "nested game+ approach s t ipula tes
tha t po l i t i ca l p a ~ t i 1 s are complex organizat ions in which party
ac t iv i s t s and po l i l i J l ans in te rac t and qui te f k e ~ u e n t l Y clash s ince
. I i \ , • l't' 1 t , E hthey are m o t ~ v a t e d by d ~ f f e r e n t r a t ~ o n a ~ e f o r ac ~ o n . ac
I II , f ,I t' . A t' . tt ype 0 f ac tor responds to a d ~ f f e r e n t se t 0 rncen ves . c V1S S
are mostly c o n c e r h e ~ 1 with par ty pol icy : pol i t ic ians are mostly
concerned with thel s h ~ i v a l of the party as In e lec tora l ly viable
l, t' I ,I I d t' rt' th , d t ft·'o r g a n ~ z a ~ o n . In s Q c ~ a l emocra ~ pa ~ e a ~ ype 0 ac or ~
of grea t importanJe:, \union members. (Koelble II 1987; 1991 ) Trade
, , I I I ., i f th 'um.orusns are most .concerned w th the representa t on 0 ea r
, ,1 1 t, 's e c t ~ o n a l ~ n t e r e s t s . , I A ll groups, of course, IShare an ~ n t e r e s In
winning elect ions siAce t ha t i s the means by which each group
' h I I, , t l th d t h ' hobta lns or opes to o b t a ~ n what ~ wants, bu e egree 0 w ~ e lec tora l victory ~ s l ~ a l u e d by each group d i ~ f e r s . Each type of
t ' t h ' I II t . d ' I 't t' hac or ~ an a pa1rtn hen f ~ s herse l f ~ a s ua aon w e r e
s t r a t e g ~ c calculat ions are s t ruc tured not only by a given se t of
in te re s t s but by o t l e ~ \ c o n s i d e r a t i o n s such as Jompeting arenas ( the
e lec tora l versus t h lh s t i tu t iona l ) and the i nJ t i tu t iona l design of
1:1 I
the par ty . l
Socia l democrJt iJ par t ies contain blue-cb l la r , White-col lar ,
profess ional and s \ t u ~ e n t i n t e res t s . They dontain profess iona l
I , t " . t \: ,Id
" Ipo ~ c ~ a n s , ~ e r e s t groups r e p r e s e n t a t ~ v e s an a c t ~ v ~ s t s from a I
of these diverse inh1erests. Electoral s t JategieS and pol icy
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15
I .
. I I
preferences vary according to which coal i t i ?n l of in te re s t s
I. ' I t b thdom1nates the par ty . Cons1derable d1sagreemen s i etween ese
, ' 'h 11,1 tgroups may eX1st , but the leve l to wh1ch t ese greemen s are
I i)d1sa
car r i ed into par ty policy and e lec to ra l s t ~ a t e g y depends on
I II Ilin s t i tu t iona l design of the par ty and the exte,nt to which each
l' l. "I '1 d h ' d d broup perce1ves 1t s 1n t e res t as be1ng he pe or a.n e re yI I: )
bringing th e conf l i c t ihs ide the par ty to bear ~ p o n i t s e lec to ra l
lI, , Lvs i t hf l h t 'per f ormance. As TsebellJs notes an m s ana YS1S 0 e ques 10n w yI I I '
par ty ac t iv i s t s in the ' Labour Party commit "POlitii c a l su ic ide" ,
I I !
incent ives for ac t ion ih Labour are s t ruc tured I I ~ n Isuch a way as to
mak e conf l ' t between Pr11t1c1ans, , an "t on1y poSS1 eC ' d act1v1s s!nqt ' b l
but encourage them i f the ac t iv i s t s can f ind aWjY of bui lding a
I ' Icoa l i t ion with t rade unionis t s to enhance t h e ~ , r ipower resources
I I I I
over pol icy making and personnel decis ions . (Tsebel is , 1990)
Electora l c o n s i d e r a t i o ~ s are le ss important t 4 1 ~ e ac t iv i s t s who
play an in te rna l r a t h ~ r than e lec to ra l game • Equally, par ty
l
I ; I
leaders in th e SPD have) an in s t i tu t iona l incent11vei to ignore loca l
chal lengers as long as ~ e s e chal lengers do n o t l ~ a l e an ex i t option
in terms of a viable chal lenging par ty totbe l e f t of theI I I
SPD.(Koelble, 1991; Kitsche l t , 1988) I I
1 I I
Ins t i tu t ions s t ruc ture the way in which ,po]icy i s made and
t 'b t d t I h'" I I ) l 't ' 1 rt'power d ' r1 u e hroughout t e 1nst1tut1on. II Pi 1 1ca pa 1esS
are organiza t ions with ' l ldifferent forms of i n s t i . t u ~ i o n a l s t ruc ture
. I I I
and accordingly varied/ dis t r ibu t ions of powerti ~ h Labour Party
exhibi ts a ra ther unusual organization in W h ~ " h l decision-making
power over pol icy, peJsonnel and f inance i s l f'he hands of the
1 I I
I I
I
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It rade union movement. (Minkin, 1978) As long as party leaders have
union suppor t , th ly ' Jre v i r tua l ly immune from pressure of the par ty
a c t i v i s t s or s e c t ~ o ~ J l in t ra -par ty in te re s t s •. However, should they
f a l l o u t of favor! w ~ t h the majori ty of the hnion l eadersh ip they
have no othe r inst l i th l iona l protec t ion . The JomPlete dependence of
Labour Party l e a b e ~ ~ in both Parl iament knd par ty was amply
demonstrated in t h i ~ 7 9 - 1 9 8 1 l e f t i s t coup inJ ide Labour. (Kogan and
Kogan, 1982) U h i ~ h l eaders and l e f t i s t ! ac t i v i s t s formed a
l ' t ' ,1:1 If' 1 d tcoa 1 10n a g a 1 n s t l t ~ e hapless Callaghan group 0 SOC1a emocra s
which was held r e s p ~ h s i b l e fo r the aus t e r i t ) programs of 1976 to
1 7 h ' h th I, ii" . til ( 't h d9 w 1C e u n ~ o n movement d1sl1ked 1n ense y. Gourev1 c an
Bornstein, 1984) II
In s t a rk cont ras t to Labour 's OrganizaJional s t ruc tu re , the
\ I I 1PSOE, SAP and SPO 'are fa r more cent ra l i zed and hiera rch ica l .
I i I IPolicy and personnel I appointments are made ~ par ty leaders , no t
, , I 1.1 , \ ' ,
sect.i.onat 1 n t e r e s t g r o u p s oucs i de of the par ty or act1 v1s t s •
,Ii i, , tHowever, th e dom1nance of the par ty l eaders over par ty act1v1s s
and union i n t e r e s t l ~ f r iLs somewhat among these pa r t i e s . The PSOE
, h t ' d b l I, , ,I k . .1S C arac er1ze y a r e l a t 1ve l y small a c t 1 v 1 ~ t base , a wea un10n
representation w i t h i ~ l t h e party and overwhelming centralized power
s t ruc ture in which p ~ r t y l eaders dominate. (Me1kel, 1989) Both gPO
and SAP have a l a r g ~ \ member",'lip with a s i g t U c a n t union hase.
Party ~ c t i v i s t s cah ~ n do i n ~ l u e n c e l eadersdiP oacis ions t h ~ o u g h ' '1 I, I I l' I,the1r 1nvo vement 1n the loca , reg10nal off1ces and, of course ,
' h ' I ' 1 f eepresent a t I 1,1. i n the 19he s t po 1cy-mak '1ng organs 0 thsome 10r
Ipar ty . (T i l ton , 1990;
I
Koelble, 1991)1
I
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17
Both SPO and SAP a ~ also par t ies with consi jerable t i e s to"I , II i 1 t 'the respectl.ve uruon movements. The organl.zat ona connec a.on
bet' I. I: I. . t '
ween unl.on and party )l.S, however, nowhere nea! :a , l.ntl.ma e as l.n
the Bri t ish case. In Germany federal law prohibits the expl ic i tI· I
merging of pol i t ica l part ies with in te res t groups such as unions.
The SPO has no off ic ia l l connection to the u n i o n ~ +though many of
i t s ac t iv is t s and leaders have union credent ials . In Sweden, SAP
'nd the um on movementI are connected an"Is mu,'11ar way - um.on
l
leaders and ac t iv is t s also tend to be active w i i ~ i , the party . At
the local level , t rade ~ n i o n s often form the b , ~ i , and membership
of the party. However"at the national level the pol icy decision
k i d I 'd' t ' II Itt' .ma l.ng process oes no, l.nvolve l.rec unl.on r i ~ r i s e n a l.on as l.n
the Labour Party Annual I Conference. Policy decisions are taken by
I I Iparty leaders and delegates, not t rade union lead.erls. Both par t ies
I IIare hierarchies in which party leaders have a good deal of
I IIdecision-making power la t the expense of act i f i is ts and in te res t
I I I
group representat ives.
The PSOE, mostly as a resu l t of i t s ~ x i l e from spanish
pol i t ics during the Franco era, has only very l10sL organizational
1 II Iconnections to the Spanish union movement. (Sha:t1 11988) While the
I ie, I
spanish union movementlwas instrumental in organ.iiing a local base
II Ilfor the PSOE in the 1 S r the unions and ~ 'Iparty are quite
1970
IIdi s t inc t ent i t ies • T ~ PSOE even a l ienatedt>arl ts of the union, I ! I
movement when it agreid to the "Moncloa pacti'l iJn which it gave
support to the conservat ive Suarez government to impose aus ter i tyI . I
measures to enhance ecdnomic growth and s t a b i l i ~ ~ the t rans i t ion toI I II I !
I 1
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18
a democratic regime in 1978 • (Share, 1988) The PSOE affords i t sI I I I
leadership cadre t h !greatest degree of organizational independence
and policy makinJ Jdwers and provides relativelY l i t t l e influence
to the party a c t i ~ i ~ ~ S , even less to i t s trade union constituency.
(Gillespie, 1988)\ \ I I
The crucial l s ~ ~ e i s tha t O r g a n i z a t i o n a ~ structure determines
,I \ \ , , dO' tthe degree to w h ~ b h party leaders control a c t ~ v ~ s t s an u n ~ o n ~ s s
inside the par tJ . I \ This degree of contrbl impacts s t ra tegic
thinking. Acti v i b t ~ \ , polit ici 'ans and unionists agree tha t it is
, t t t .I
i,l,"h
' I t ' t h 10~ m p o r an 0 w ~ POI s ~ t ~ o n s w ~ t h ~ n t e o r g a n ~ z a ~ o 0 s ape po ~ c y .
ll l dh ~ a 0' to shape electora s t ra t egy an pol' a ~ ose p o s ~ t ~ 0 n ~ c ' t0
maintain th is a b i ~ i ~ ~ whereas those out of I[ower hope to obtain
influence. The s J r u ~ t u r e of the party shapes the opportunities by
which these aims a ~ e l , ~ u l f i l l e d . I f a player i s "out" of power, she
faces the choice b 1 t ~ l e n cooperating with thode in power to achieve
a t l eas t some of h l r : ~ n d s ( i . e . l imited vOicelof opposition) or to
challenge those in p c i ~ e r (loud voicing of OPPoLition and the th rea t
of exi t ) . For . L . . a b ~ J r Party ac t iv is t s willlng to challenge tne
social democratic ~ e a b e r s an opportunity aroJe in 1979 to build a
coal i t ion with t r a ~ e hnion in teres ts who had It he power to replaceI I I
1 I 1 Ithe "old guard". Such an opportunity does not exis t for PSOE, SAP
ior SPO e.ctivists wbo lfind themselves in a Pokition where, to get
10k
, III t' w °th 1ead I ~ 1y t 0some c o n c e s s ~ o n s , aoopera ~ o party ers most e
\ i I Iwin them concessioms unless they are able to swamp the party with
' ' t ' \ \ 0 \ 0new act av i s s an s u f f ~ c ~ e n t numbers to take over the e n t ~ r e , t ' f i I . \ 0 0o r g a n ~ z a l.on rom the bottom upwards. T h ~ s s t rategy as u n l ~ k e l y to
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19
I
succeed s ince it no t only involves th e mobil izat ion of many new'I
II
I. , ' t h thmembe rs bu t also a g r j a t dea l of prot rac ted I ~ C l l . Vl.sm Wl. e
in ten t ion of changing ~ a r t y personnel and pol icy . (Koelb le , 1991)
I I : IMost par ty ac t iv i s t s dOl not have the pat ience f ~ such a longterm
I I I I, I I
I I I
s t r a t egy .
Nested Games I I ; Preferences« Elec tora l s t r a t eg ie s and Policy
I I I
ChoiceI I
For party ac t i v i s t s , t r ade unionis t s and po l i t i c i ans pol icy
I I I
pr i o r i t i e s vary. They ~ l share , as Mayhew suggests , a des i re to
I
!I I
win e lec t ions and enact 1900d pol icy . (Mayhew, 197 4 ) IThey agree t ha t1
1
th e exte rna l mission of a par ty i s to win powej lb i t they disagree
lover the ex ten t to which winning e lec t ions ought to be placed over
I I I
th e othe r important var iab le ; good pol icy . Fur ther , they d i f f e r
· . t . fl d 1 . d d . I ! h . h t fover th e de f a.m, a.on 0 goo po a.cy epen l.ng I upon w l.C se 0
I I : I
preferences and in te re s t s they represent . I I i
Assuming t h a t p! r ty po l i t i c i ans o r l e a d e ~ s want to win
I IIe lec t ions and make good pol icy ( in t h a t order of preferences) then
li i i I
it i s poss ib le to argue I t h a t po l i t i c i ans are mos. t. l i ke ly to chooseI I
I I I
the "government par ty l l r s t ra t egy . It i s i ndee l l s i r i k ing t h a t th e
par ty l eaders in each 0lf our cases were most inc.l ined towards t ha tI: I
s t r a t egy . In th e s ~ the par ty l eadersh i f i l roup of Vogel,
Lafonta ine , Rau even Brandt favored such a s t r a t egy . In th e SAP,
I I! I
Palme and Erlander; in the PSOE, Guerra and GO.nza les ; in Labour
lI : I
Hatters ley and KinnOCj (eventual ly) favored II a combinat ion of
po l i c i e s aimed a t as broad an e lec to ra l const i fuency as poss ib le .
I , : I
There a re , of course , examples of l eadersh ip f igures who d id not o r
I I I
I II
I I
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do not agree wi h s u c h a s t ra tegy , but these pol i t ic ians have
committed t h e m s e l v J ~ to represent ing not thJ e lec tora l aims of the
par ty but the s e h t l ~ n a l in te re s t s of e i theJ a group of ac t i v i s t s
, I I I f f t" ) ,( f . ~ . Tony Benn as i'spokesperson for Labour 's 'new Ie o r u n ~ o n in teres ts . II brueia l in t ra -par ty vaJiable i s in how fa r+
t ' 't d i , ! I . t t bl I t block or h;ndero ~ v ~ s an u n ~ o n ~ eres s are a eo.
po1 t . i"c i.ans f rom a d!opt '~ n such a s t ra t egy ' f ' t does not favorI i
t he i r policy pre eriJnces and tangible in te re s t s .
II . ii, h· th t')
While the Ja i Ju la t ions fo r po l i t i c i abs are predominantly
affected by the e lec tora l arena( c o m p e t ~ t
on w ~ 0 e r par~ e
,
par ty ac t iv i s t s t ,nd1to be more affected by oJganizat ional fac tors .
Act ivis t s vOlunt leJ \ t he i r t ime to the paJty for a var ie ty of
I, i I
reasons. Ei the r t h ~ y plan to become pol i t ic ians themselves, in
~ h th II '1 1 I d h i d . , ,wh ' case ey a ~ most l ~ k e y to support ea e rs ~ e c ~ s ~ o n s ~ \ \ I
order to be rewarded by those in power, orI
they are there for
pol icy reasons. J f ~ b they again face the pJoblem of get t ing what
I I Ithey want - cooper,ate
with the leaders or oppose and chal lenge. I f
opposition i s e h o ~ e ~ l a s a s tra tegy then ae t iF i s t s have to map out
a s tra tegy of how ~ o ~ so without being p u n i ~ h e d . It i s d if f i eu l t
to chal lenge the JstWblished e l i t e in h ie rardhica l pa r t i e s such as
SPO, PSOE and sJ Jlthout a grea t dea l of l internal turmoi l andI I I .
r e t a l i a t ion . In ~ e ~ d e r s h i p dominated pa r t i e s , ac t i v i s t s a re more
l ike ly to t ry and Ico'dperate with those in p o ~ e r than to chal lenge
them. Act iv i s t s ~ e ~ ~ to have suppor t from lhe unions fo r t h e i r
'f h I i I I ,po1 " t ey hope' to successful ly chal lenge the par ty e l t e .~ c ~ e s t 1 f d ' t ' .The s t ra e g ~ c c aI II cul 'atn.ons 0 t ra e uru.cna, s s an soc i a 1
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I
democratic par t i e s il complicated by l oya l t i e s to t h e i r, I i I
organiza t ion . Trade unionis t s may share both i n t e rna l and externa l
missions of a c t i v i s t s alnd/or po l i t i c i ans , bu t ~ ~ also concerned
I IIwith the fa te of the unions preferences and i n t e ~ e s t s . A t r ade
li t " . 1 t i 11 t' t .unionis t not on l y par Lc i paties an e ec ora compe l. a.on
I I i I
c a l c u l a t i ons , i n t r a -pa r t y s t r a t eg ic calcula t ions . bu t a l so in a s e ti I
of intra-union, interrunion and u n i o n - c a P i t ~ 1 I relat ions and
confl icts . As DunleaVYI and Husbands in the sr i f i sb case and Kern
and Schumann in the German case show, union i n t ~ r l s t s are highly
I I i I
fragmented and heterogeneous. (Dunleavy and Husbandsl, 1985: Kern andI I I I
Schumann, 1984) Uuionis t s represent ing workers in dec l in ing
indus t r i es exhib i t a v e ~ y d i f f e ren t view of the ~ . o i l e of the s t a t e ,I ;
the p o l i t i c a l par ty and the union m o v e m e l ~ ithan unionis t s
represent ing blue o r w h ~ t e c o l l a r workers in highly com pet i tive and
I IIwel l -paying sec tors .
I IIReturning to t ab le 1, unions in declini .n g o r endangered
I I i l
i ndus t r i a l sec tors arel
most l ike ly to preferi
i a " soc ia l i s t " o r
"worker is t" s t ra tegy t pro tec t th e jobs and lib.ene f i t s of t he i rI '
workers . It i s no t s u r ~ r i s i n g t h a t th e Nationall
~ n l o n of Miners in
I 'Bri ta in , fo r i n s t ance ,
I
Ica l led fo r a rad ica l i za t ionI
of th e Labour
Party . Arthur scargi l l i l supported the radical l ~ ; t lin Labour in i t s
I ' I
ba t t l e with the soc i a l I democrats. While not , ~ e ~ union becomes
"worker is t" o r inc l in id towards "socia l ism" I ~ i t s indus t r i es
dec l ine , they are most l l ike l Y to favor protecr i ion o f both t he i r
. d t d h i I . .an us ryan t e WOrjfOrCe and, above " ':
I
tihel.r own um.on
organiza t ion . (Golden, 1r90) Extending welfar i sTibenef i t s i s l i ke ly
I
!
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I
, I
II 22
" Ito be one of the i r maJor pr i o r i t i e s .
Unions r e p r e ~ e ~ ~ i n g white-col la r w o r k e r ~ and those act ing on
behalf of an i n t e J n ~ ~ i o n a l l Y compet i t ive and 'lhighlY paid workforce
,J:I , I, , d dare f a r 1ess 11.kely to support protect1.on1.sm o r an ee wage
equal iza t ion P O l ~ C ~ ~ s . ( D U n l e a v y and HusbJnds, Esping985;
'I : I , " I , t 1Andersen , 1985 ) Worker1.st or soc1.al1.st st ra teg1.es are no a ways
, th Lnt; I U I , 1 'k 1l.n e l.n e res t s of such a workforce. Such un1.ons a re more 1. e yI I ' I
to suppor t pol ic ieb d ~ S i g n e d to increase comp1t i t iveness , to reduce
tax burdens on I t ~ L i r workers, to encoJrage adjustment to
lnt;t '
1 dl
, 1,1 d I ) h un i.n erna 1.0na con l1.tl.ons.(Kern an Schumann, 1984 Suc un1.ons are
I, I '
Ii,th
a 1so more l .kely' to suppor t a s t ra tegy of adJustment y e
p o l i t i c a l par ty ~ \ a t t r ac t o ther soc ia l ~ r o u p s and mainta in
' 1' , , J th S d ' he 1ec t ora 1 c o m p e t 1 . ~ 1 . v e n e s s . The ~ u r r e n t r 1 . f ~ between e we loS
blue-co l l a r union: ~ J g a n i z a t i o n , the LO, anb some white co l la r
, I I
workers organized in ' l the Teo over th e wage-earner funds i s a good
example of t h i s tybeihf in t ra-union r i V a l r y . ( ~ o n t u s s o n , 1987) The
I ' I I
l.cy f "th'l
ese argeo I , pre erences 0 f' some uru.ons W1. an th t wo 1 uru onI i I I
organizat ions are lit', l idS over such f u n d a m e n ~ a l i ssues concerning
working c l a s s p r e f : e r ~ , n c e s and s t r a t eg ie s . I
Not a l l unionls ~ I , a l l in to one category o th e othe r as neat ly
I i I Ias th e researcher Imight hope. The German metalworkers union (IG
Metal l ) or th e B r i t l ~ h miners (NUM), fo r in l t ance , conta in bothI: I
d 1" I, f' Iwork e rs an compet "1.1t':ove and ec l.n1.ng annd u s t r ~ e s o r l.rms. These
I IIunions sUffer from i n t e rna l dissent ion oV$r su i t ab l e pol icy .
, , I I
Further , the re are \a n ~ u m b e r of fac tors which may lead unions no t to
'I ' I '
advocate pol ic ies faJorable to the in te rna t iona l pos i t ion of t he i r
i
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23
I
i ndus t r i e s . For ins tance , one can imagine a s i tua t ion where an
I I I I
indust ry i s doing poorllY but has succeeded i l l , lOSing out the
unions from organiz ing I the workforce. In such et scenar io, the
'tt t' II, It ' t fun10n may no share the concerns and pro ec 10n1st sen 1men s 0
I I i lthe owners. Alternat iVejY' unions in com pe t i t ive l tn ius t r ie s may not
share f ree t r ade prefer jnCes i f they a re s u s p e c l ~ e l to lead to th e
weakening of th e union. The surv iv a l of the union as an
, " I, ,II dl " thorgan1zat10n 1S the most 1mportant var1able eterm1n1ng e
I I ! I
ca lcu la t ions of t r ade union a c t i v i s t s and l eade rs . (Golden, 1988)
I I INever the less , unions dOl tend to suppor t e i t h e r I ~ economic pol icy
geared towards interna1t ional compet i t iveness l i r lone aiming a t
protect ionism and th e con t ro l o f markets and P ~ O d r c t i o n . Unions
' , . 1" , l id ' .represent 1ng b l ue -co l l a r workers 1n dec 1n1ng i i s t r 1 e s are more
l i ke ly to suppor t a IIwoikeristtt or even t t s o c i a l i i ~ t t l pol icy s t ra tegy
than unions represent ing profess ionals , white ~ o l l a r workers and
' t 't ' I, d t .worke rs an compe 1 1ve 1n us r i.ee , II
In t r a -pa r t y Coal i t ion ,U i ld ing I! I
The pol icy ChOiies and e lec to ra l s t r j r e j i eS of soc i a l
democratic par t i e s r e f l ec t the dominance of d iverse i n t r a -pa r ty
I II Icoa l i t i ons . The osc i l l a t i on of pol icy from slicilalism to soc i a l
democracy to the government par ty s t r a t egy in the PSOE' s case
I I Ir e f l e c t s the sense of I uncer ta inty among the F ,a iY leaders as to
which pol icy di rec t ion might work in a newly es tab l i shed democracy.
While party s t ra te9 isFs needed time to f i ~ r Ian appropriate
s t r a t egy , the absence of an in t ra -par ty b l ue -co l l a r i n t e r e s t group
al lowed the pa r ty l e a d ~ r s to adopt th e vote-Jax lmiz ing s t r a t egy
I I I
II
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I 24
r e l a t ive ly qUiCkl!y And unencumbered. Once it became c l ea r tha t
conservat ive and i i ~ l r a l par t i e s had not capJured the middle c l a s s
I I, I I
vote , the PSOE: qui te r a t i ona l l y went a'ifter t h i s e lec to ra l: I
const i tuency with,I ~ l i c i e s qui te u n a t t r a c t i ~ e to the blue-co l l a r
workers and t h e i r ! u ~ l o n s . ( W i l l i a m s , 1988) I
The Labour p l r J ~ , on the o the r hand, addpted pol ic ies favored
by unions O r g a n i Z ~ n ~ workers in decl in ing ihdus t r i es a f t e r 1979.
I "I • , t d th I d . CIn Labour blue-co l l a r ~ n t e r e s t s d o m ~ n a e e Tra e U n ~ o n ongress
I I I
I I(TUC) and the Labour Par ty Annual Conference. Only a f t e r two
I :1 I
massive e l ec t o ra l defea ts has the par ty a d o ~ t e d a pol icy packageI I I 'I. h
favoz:able of grouPls ~ t h e r than blue-co l l a r workers . P a r t ~ a l l y , t e
s h i f t i s also eXPlicJble by a s h i f t within t h union movement away
from blue-co l l a r J o i ~ e r . The TUC has l o s t o ~ e r 4 mil l ion members
since 1979 most of ~ h o m were blue-collar . iThe dominance of the
blue-co l l a r unions i J fading in the TUC and, , thereby, in Labour.
I I I 'The SPO and I SAP cases are somewhat l ess c lea r cut . Both
I. I I d d . tpar t ~ e enJoy th e support of the broa e r t r a e u n ~ o n movemen. In
both par t i e s , bluJ-ddl l a r in te re s t s are s t r O ~ g l Y rep resen ted . The
Swedish LO, the b ~ u ~ L c o l l a r union O r q a n i z a t ~ o n , has fo r decades
dec i s i . filii l' ( . It! ). . 1 1een a e c ~ s ~ v e ~ uence on SAP po ~ c y . T on, 1990 S ~ m ~ a r y,
blue-co l l a r i n t e r J s ~ J a re s t rongly r e p r e s e n t ~ d within th e German
t r ade union federk t ibn (OGB). (Markovi ts , 1 9 ~ 6 ) In cont ras t to
Sweden, however, i h ~ ~ e i s no union assoc ia t ld spec i f i ca l ly with
I' ::
I •
I
I • d 1b lue-co11a r ~ n t e r e s t s s rnce German una.ons .are ozqana ae a ongI '
sec t o ra l or i n d u s t + i ~ ~ l i nes . How then can w I
expla in the absence
of s ign i f i can t opJ,oslJtion to th e new policy 'lin Sweden eventhough
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· I
the re i s a s i gn i f i can f b lue -c o l l a r presence l i1 the SAP and
r e l a t ive ly s t rong o P P o s ~ t i o n in Germany where t h i ~ e ~ s apparent ly ,
no spec i f i c b lue -c o l l a r organizat ion with in th e I SPO?
,I I IThe puzzle can be solved by a br i e f "ana lys i s of theIIIevelopment with in the unions and th e re la t ionship between unions
I . f II I t I' fand par ty . Although th e LO may have 1n luenced par y po 1Cy o rI ! I
some t ime , it does notl dominate t he pa r ty h i e ~ a r r h Y . LO i s an
i n t e r e s t group increaSirglY chal lenged by g r o u P I ~ sluch as the Teo,
representa t ive of whi teTcol lar workers , for in f luence upon th e SAP
l eadersh ip . A g r a d U a ~ s h i f t towards pUbl ic l ~ e t i c e and white
co l la r unions has taken place in th e Swedish union movement,
weakenen1ng t he LO. I ron1cal ly , th e LO has b I ! a1 u t th ' h ' f t! rought 00 1S s 1
with i t s s t rong support! of extending th e PUbl ic l feJ tor and thereby
the growth o f pubH,c sec ror , White -co l la r w o r k e r ~ T eJsPing-Andersen., I
1990) I II
More important , however, i s th e pol icy or ien ta t ion of the LO
I I! I
concerning th e i n t e r e s t s of decl in ing i n d u s t r i e ~ a n r t h e i r workers .
The LO committed i t s e l ~ to economic and f i s l ~ l P O l i C Y designedn
to discourage th e s u r v i ~ 1 1 a l of decl in ing i n d u s t r l ~ s (Mart in , 1984)
II
The defense o f dec l in inrindus t r ie s i s no t a parfiCUlarlY impor tan t
i tem on th e LO's agenda: th e secur ing of b e n e ~ i t s to workers
. . ' . II I ha f f ect e d by dec l i.ne 1S paramount. (M1lner, 1989)1 I T!hrough a o s t of
II
Ieducat ional , soc i a l and economic po l i c i e s the I t rans it ion from
i ndus t r i a l decl ine to i ~ t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i v ~ n e s , s i s accelera ted, I ! I
by SAP po l i cy . (steinmo'l 1989) The b l ue -co l l a r Iiec tor in Sweden i s
l e s s committed to defending decl in ing i ndus t r i a l i n t e r e s t s or wage
I I,
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26
I I .
sol idar i ty than s 0 m ~ l w h i t e col lar unions. I
In the SPO, l ~ u m b e r of pr9dominantly blue-col lar industr ia l
unions formed parl bk the coal i t ion s u p p o r t ~ n g Helmut Schmidt as
. I : I I , 'd l ' ,chance11or dUrl.ng: t,ge 1970' s , Blue-collar I um.ons an ec l.nl.ng
industr ies do not ddminate the SPO, but through the i r power in
unions such as
1 ~ J energy, mineworkersl, construction and
metalworkers u n i o t s ~ ! t h e Y have been able tol r e s i s t par ty policy
changes unfavorablr ~ t he i r indus t r ies . p a r ~ i C U l a r l Y on 'the issue
of environmental policy, union representatives from these unionsI I I
were instrumental \i n blocking attempts· to re ta in the Green vote in: ' ,
the party during I ~ ~ 1970's and recaptuJing it with policy
• , I ': I I
conceas rcns an the: early 1980's. The blue-col1l.ar sector prolonquedI ' I
't 'f l ,: . I ,I. S an uence an rthe SPO through l.t s supporrt for Johannes Rau,
minister presidenJ df North-Rhine westPhalia l (and SPO chancellor, : I
candidate in 1987) I, the heartland of declining industr ies . I t has
only recently l o s t ! s ~ ~ e of i t s influence Withih the party hierarchy
II I Iaf te r the electoral defeats of 1983 and 1987.
I n 11 part l.es, II , bIll 'r l .nterests have decI 'aned an ue-co
't I ! I ,I .l.mpor ance. HoWeViter,1 the more establl.shed blue-col lar l .nterestsI ' I
representing d e C l i n i ~ g industr ia l in teres ts l were within theseI I '
par t ies , the moreld{fficult the t rans i t ion ~ a vote-maximizing
II : Istrategy was for the Iparty concerned. The absence of a powerful
I I:
blue-col lar r e p r e s b n t ~ t i o n in the PSOE leadetship cadre explains
I I I I
the par ty ' s very rapid' adoption of the "government party" stra tegy.
The dominance of ~ l J ~ - c o l l a r in teres ts in e ~ d a n g e r e d indus t r ia l
sectors in Labour e ~ ~ l a i n the par ty ' s a d j U ~ t m e n t di f f icu l t i es ,
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" , t' 1:1 t' b t 27par t 1cular ly S1nce 197,. The organ1za 10na sepera 10n e ween
blue-col lar unions and white co l l a r in teres ts , ~ ~ l a , s commitment
I I i I
to discourage decl in ing tndus t r i es and fos t e r i n l ~ s i r i a l winners as
well as the rap id growth o f white co l la r sec tors !anld incorpora t ion
lo f former b l ue -co l l a r ~ o r k e r s in to t h i s sector! . in Sweden expla in
. I I I l
th e SAP's ab i l i t y to adapt r e l a t ive ly smoothly. IThe organ iza t iona l
entrenchment of b lue -c + la r in teres t s unt i l q u i l ~ e [recently in the
SPO l eadersh ip cadre help us unders tand why th.e ISPO had such aI I !
d i f f i c u l t t r ans i t i on flrom soc i a l democracy tlo th e "government
I I! I
party" s t r a t egy . In th e SPO's case the addi t ion of Eas t GermanI ! !
b l ue -co l l a r workers in l c r i s i s may ind ica te al i fu r t he r round of
I ! I I
adapta t ion problems s ince it i s l i ke ly tha t I ~ h Eas t German, :1 . I
economic c r i s i s wi l l adV e r se l y a f f e c t the blue-co l l a r sec tors in aI I I I
uni ted Germany. I
S Conc I US10ns: Qrgan1zat10ns an h 'me , I" d C 01ces I
!
This a r t i c l e u t i l i z e s a novel approach in comparative
I IIpo l i t i c s , th e nested games t hes i s . It rep resen t s pnly a f i r s t and
I II !
t en t a t ive s tep in an at tempt to analyse in t ra -par ty po l i t i c s in a, I I I
much more r igorous and formal manner. The alrgument holds t h a t
I I I I
soc i a l democratic par t f e s are searching fo r ai njw po l i t i c a l and
e lec to ra l s t ra tegy and I that the ab i l i t y of IIconi,erativell elements
( in t h i s case unions r ~ p r e s e n t i n g workers in dec l ining i ndus t r i e sI I I I
. . I
which do no t want to Isee a s h i f t away from If r j d i t i ona l aocLa l
democrat ic o r even s oc i a l i s t pol ic ies ) i s an i m p o ~ l t a n t var iab le inI I 'I I I
expla in ing why some par t i e s adopt a vote-maximizing s t ra tegy
Lckl h th!' , , I I, f I. t d ' t tqua,c Y w ereas 0 e r part1es experaence s1gn1 a.can a JUS men
I I
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i
I 28II
problems. The at i i l i : ty of such conservat ive groups i s def ined by
the Organizat ionJ, l I J t ructures of the par ty \and th e re la t ionsh ip
. between b l u e - c o l l ~ r l ~ n t e r e s t s (par t i cu la r ly 6niOnS) and the pa r ty
ea h ' \ mo.re offl .ce-seekl .ng I l ' t " con 11 de rs ap , The ii, , par ty po l. a.c i ans t ro
e l ec t o ra l s t r a t e ~ JAd pol icy decis ions , the Imor e l i ke ly the pa r ty
t d t I i.\ I , f l 0 , , 0l.S 0 a op v o t e - ~ a X I m l . Z l . n g s t ra tegl .es . The more l.n uence unl.ons
' d 1] .i I 'd '1 h I "thO t thepresen t l.ng ec l.nl.ng l.n us t r l .a sec tors a ~ Wl. l.n a par y e
more d i f f i c u l t th1e i Ja r ty ' s t r ans i t i on to t J e "government party"
s t r a t egy . A f i J a ~ I word of warning: raPib adjus tment to new
elec tora l c o n d i t l 1 n ~ Idoes not guarantee e l e c J r a l victory. The SAP
and PSOE face s t i f f ~ i e c t o r a l t e s t s ( p a r t i a l li due to th e defec t ion
of groups t h a t h a v ~ l ~ f f e r e d as a r e s u l t of t hL i r vote-maximizat ion
' ) hil l " be d ' ·1s t ra t egy. l.n t e pext s e t of elect l .ons whl.le La ur an SPD may l.n
! I If ac t recover from the abysmal performances of the 1980 ' s .
The a r t i c l e J ~ s o qua l i f i e s Olson 's largument concern ing
organ iza t iona l a d a p ~ l t i o n . (Olson, 1982) m h l e th e Labour case
appears to v i n d i c l t ~ l o l s o n ' s po in t t h a t too lmany i n t e r e s t groups
"clog up" o r g a n i z ~ t l b n a l adjustment , the S A case shows t h a t if
organiza t ions a d a ~ t ! I to changing c o n d i t i o n ~ then they remain
t ' t ' h \ lid s h 'l . f t by a 1 1 f o u ~ I par t l .es to a vote ompe l. ave , T e , gra ua l ,
I I \. \maximizing s trateq¥ also suggests tha t part ie s do learn from past
e r ro r s and adjUstJ ~ ~ e n if t h a t process i s la painfUl one. The
a r t i c l e a l so SUggJstW t h a t while Downs may b vindica ted th rough
th e eventua l adap t J t{ ln o f a l l four p a r t i e s , t he d ive rgen t pa ths to
' " iIt 'd ' . I "a vo t e-maxl.ml.zl.ng ou come a re a n l .catl .ve t h a t ratl .onall . ty fo r
po l i t i c a l pa r t i e s lis! no t merely a ques t ion 6f winning votes but
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. . I . t dth I dba I so of competl.ng l .nternal l .nteres s an games p aye y
I I
po l i t i c i ans , a c t i v i s t s ~ n union is t s .I . I
I
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