recent developments in the business tendency survey area at the oecd michela gamba, statistics...

Recent developments in the Business Tendency Survey area at the OECDMichela Gamba, Statistics Directorate OECD

– EU Workshop on BTS – Brussels 15-16 November 2012

Outline OECD recent work in the BTS area

• New hierarchy for the OECD Tendency Surveys

• Seasonal adjustment project• Handbook on Tendency Surveys

2

New hierarchy for Tendency Surveys Rationale

– Transparency & comparability– Simplify the coding system– Reconciliation with international

standards–More coherence with the new

Handbook on BS/CS– Target list built on the standard list

agreed in the harmonised EC system

3

New hierarchy for Tendency Surveys

Steps

• Revised target list in accordance with new BS & CS Handbook – Inventory of existing series– Country coverage

• New coding– Matching old codes with new– Harmonise CIs compilation– Harmonise metadata

go live by end of 2013Q1

4

Seasonal adjustment projectBackground

• “Is it necessary to seasonally adjust business and consumer confidence series?” – OECD, 2008

www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/43858762.pdf

• Enhanced DEMETRA+– Free at circa.europa.eu– Developed by NBB, maintained by EuroStat– based on both TRAMO/SEATS and X-12 Arima – Allowing multi-processing and single-processing

5

Seasonal adjustment Implementation

The rule for selecting series

currently s.a. by OECD gross series provided by countries

…but also…

s.a. series by the EC

…for a total of 730 series for BS and 78 series for CS

6

Seasonal adjustment The method

Steps to follow

1 –assessing prerequisites by checking the quality of original data

2- perform seasonal adjustment3- analysis of results4- refine/readjust export to system

7

Handbook on Tendency SurveysBackground

Steering group: StatCan, Statistics Netherlands, ROSSTAT, ES, UNSD

Working group: ISTAT (lead), UNSD, OECD, NSCB Philippines, Swiss KoF, Statistics Netherlands

Scope: prepare a Handbook on Tendency Surveys with best practices and a proposed harmonised questionnaire to be implemented by countries

Draw upon OECD and EC handbooks but addressed to a broader audience and including more sectors

Timing: final draft end 2013- to be presented to final draft end 2013- to be presented to the UN Statistical Commission by Feb 2014the UN Statistical Commission by Feb 2014

8

Handbook on Tendency SurveysOECD contribution

• QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN1. Keys aspects for questions to be covered Formulation (what to ask, why and how) Definition (what to measure) backward/forward looking Time horizon (past-present-future) Growth vs level (ups-downs vs below-above normal) Seasonality

2. Define sets of core variables for BTS & CS to be used in harmonised questionnaires at various frequencies

3. Account for any departures (country specific, ad-hoc/ experimental questions)

4. Cover background information on businesses and respondents

5. Pre-testing

• USE OF TENDENCY SURVEYS RESULTS Use of confidence indicators for business cycle analysis

9

…and the usual business

• Maintaining rolling updates of series• Consolidating BRIICS coverage• Extend data coverage to G20

10

….Thank you for your attention!Michela.gamba@OECD.org

– EU Workshop on BTS – Brussels 15-16 November 2012

11