recent seismicity and earthquake rapid response...challenges in earthquake and volcanic risk ......

Recent Seismicity and Rapid Response in Ethiopia

Atalay AyeleInstitute of Geophysics Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa 

University (Ethiopia)

8/6/2018

Contents

BackgroundsStatus of Ethiopian Seismic Station NetworkRecent seismicity and experiences in rapid responseChallenges in earthquake and volcanic risk mitigation in EthiopiaConclusions

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Backgrounds

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Meghraoui et al., 2016

The most evolved part of EARSPrototype Ultra slow spreading oceanic ridge

Backgrounds …

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5‐6 mm/year

1.8‐2cm/year

‐Red dots represent earthquake epicenters with magnitude being proportional to the size of the circle

‐ White stars represent capital cities

‐ yellow stars show major towns in Ethiopia

Arabia plate

Farming and animal herding and hence settlement more favorable around the rift 

BUT

Backgrounds …

Risk is growing with less awareness8/6/2018

Backgrounds ...

Ayele et al., 2009Belachew et al., 2011

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Seismic station network

Inauguration of AAE in 1962 as one of the WWSSN station and dignitaries and engineers were from AAU, USGS and the US embassy in Addis Ababa

• Seismic monitoring in Ethiopia started in 1959

• AAE remained as one of the world best stations in data quality and continuity of operation

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Current seismic Station Network …

DESE

DILA

ANKE HARA

SEME

AAEFURI

A total of 9 stations

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GERD

GERDWELM

Two more standby stationsWELM

Current seismic station network

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FURI (Ethiopia)AAE (Ethiopia)DESE (Ethiopia)HARA (Ethiopia)ANKE (Ethiopia)BEKJ (RiftVolk project)MBAR (Uganda)ATD (Djibouti)KMBO (Kenya)LODK (Kenya)

All these stations generate helicorders on daily basis

8/6/2018 GeoPRISMS TEI RIE Initative Albuquerque, 2017

8/6/2018 GeoPRISMS TEI RIE Initative Albuquerque, 2017

16 people died and 253 were injured  (daily mail)

Monitoring regional earthquake activities

8/6/2018 ISP/IPPS Grantt Application 2917‐2019, Nairobi, Kenya

Recent seismicity & rapid responseMarch/April 2015 Fentale swarm 

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SEME

DESE

NEKE

DILA

ANKEAAE

FURI

GINR

SABU

BAHI

Clear anisotropy is visible at SABU station

Recent seismicity & rapid response 

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‐The most reported on the media‐There was panic and death due to lack of awareness on how to behave during earthquake crisis 

Wilks et al., 2017)

Recent seismicity & rapid response

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04/12/20164.6  (ML)

27/01/20175.3 Mw

Recent seismicity & rapid response

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04/12/20164.6  (ML)

18‐21/01/2017NASA image

27/01/20175.3 Mw

Recent seismicity & rapid response

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Challenges

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10% probability of exeedance in 50 years2% probability of exeedance in 50 years

Ayele (2017)

BUT‐ historical catalogue‐Instrumental  catalogue‐ active Fault Mapping/earthquake geology‐ Strain Rate‐ GMPE etc

Challenges …

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Bekoji station

Frequent power and connectivity failure

Challenges …• Government manages crisis instead of risk

– Capacity building – outreach

• Episodic international collaborations for naturally episodic activities

• We are missing science b/se of lack of funding for rapid response but risk management, we never had catastrophic event so far and we are not prepared 

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Conclusions• Update the seismic hazard map and the building code from the most we can get out of the data

• Enforce the code by legislation• Build capacity in real‐time monitoring & communicate results to the concerned when necessary

• Establish a reliable civil protection authority in the country

• Government attention is episodic and dangerous for developing mitigation capacity in the country

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AcknowledgementsISP (International Science Program) of Uppsala University for supporting our seismological activity and also financially supporting my visit to Kobe.

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