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Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune (Demonstration Phase)
D. S. Pai Head, Climate Division
Regional Stakeholder Consultation on Climate Services for the Third Pole Region
Holiday Inn Jaipur City Centre, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India 9-11 March 2016
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RCC, Pune: Background India Meteorological Department (IMD) established National
Climate Centre (NCC), Pune in 1995 with an objective to provide various climate related services to the country (India).
Since then, NCC has been carrying out many India specific climate related activities like Climate Monitoring and Analysis, Climate Prediction (Seasonal Forecasts), Climate Data Management, and Climate Research. All these activities are limited to cover the complete geographical areas of India.
With an objective to expand climate service activity across south Asia, since May 2013, NCC has started to work as WMO recognized RCC (Pilot Phase) for the south Asia. In this regard, efforts were made to build capacity to perform the mandatory RCC functions. Various mandatory RCC functions performed by RCC, Pune for south Asia is presented here. RCC products are currently made available through IMD, Pune website
(www.imdpune.gov/Clim_RCC_LRF/Index.html).
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Operational Long Range Forecasts Based on Statistical Models for India
27/04/2016 4
Sr. No.
Forecast for Region for which forecast issued Issued in
1 Winter Season (Jan- March) Precipitation
Northwest India December
2 SW Monsoon Season (June to September) Rainfall
Country as a whole April
3 SW Monsoon Season (June to September) Rainfall
Country as a whole June
4 South-West Monsoon Onset Kerala May 5 SW Monsoon Season (June to
September) Rainfall Four broad geographical regions:
Northwest India, Northeast India , Central India and South Peninsula
June
6 SW Monsoon Monthly Rainfall for July and August
Country as a whole June
7 SW Monsoon Second half of the Season (August- September) Rainfall
Country as a whole July
8 September Rainfall Country as a whole August 9 NE Monsoon Season (October to
December) Rainfall South Peninsula September
The operational forecasts are issued using statistical method
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Skill of the statistical models currently used for the operational LRF of Monsoon Rainfall over India
The operational forecasts for the 2015 season rainfall over the country as a whole and that over four broad geographical regions (northwest India, central India, northeast India and south Peninsula) were within the limits of the forecasts issued in June and accurate. Similarly, the forecasts for the July as well as that for the rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season over the country as a whole were also accurate. However, the August forecast was an overestimate to the realized rainfall and was not accurate. .
Operational Forecast for 2015 Monsoon Rainfal over Indial & Verification
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Performance of Operational Forecast (Empirical Model) for All India Seasonal Rainfall (1988-2015):
Error ≥ 10% in 7 yrs with highest in 2002 (20%) and 1994 (18%). Error in 2009 15%. Ave. absolute error during the last 13 years (2003 -2015) was 5.92% of LPA compared
to that of 7.94% of LPA during the 13 years (1990 -2002) just prior to that period. C.C between the actual and forecast rainfall for (2003 -2015) & (1990-2002) are 0.42 & -
0.24 respectively. During 1990-2002, the forecast within the ±8% of actual values during 9 years. Within
these 9 years, forecast was within ±4% during 5 years. On the other hand during 2003-2015, the forecast was within the ±8% of actual values during 10 years with forecast within ±4% during 7 years. These clearly indicate improvement made in the operational forecast system in the recent 13 years period compared to earlier 13 years period.
27-Apr-16
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Statistical Models for SAARC Countries
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Bangladesh
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BANGALADESH FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 907.1
mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 15.3
RMSE (1971-2000) = 11.46
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.63
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Bhutan
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BHUTAN FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 607.99 mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 14.00 RMSE (1971-2000) = 9.65
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.70
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Myanmar FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 1038.4 mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 7.9 RMSE (1971-2000) = 6.0
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.64
Myanmar
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SRILANKA FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN (1971-2000) = 294.7 mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 24.0 RMSE (1971-2000) = 18.93
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.59
Sri Lanka
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NEPAL FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 756.1 mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 9.81 RMSE (1971-2000) = 7.22
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.66
Nepal
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PAKISTHAN FORECAST (JUL-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1971-2000) = 91.60 mm
C.V. (1971-2000) = 37.8 RMSE (1971-2000) = 34.9
MCC (1971-2000)= 0.56
Pakisthan
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MALDIVES FORECAST (JUN-SEPT)
MEAN RF (1988-2005) = 764.6 mm
C.V. (1988-2005) = 14.0 RMSE (1988-2005) = 11.61
MCC (1988-2005)= 0.68
Maldives
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27-Apr-16
Forecasts for 2015 from MR Models Developed during SASCOF Workshops
COUNTRY MEAN (1971-2000) mm
STDEV (1971-2000)
mm
RMSE (1971-2000)
mm
FORECAST (% OF LPA)
BANGALADESH 907.1 15.0 11.46 100.7
BHUTAN 607.99 13.8 9.65 86.4
MYANMAR 1038.4 8.0 6.0 93.7
SRILANKA 294.7 23.81 18.93 92.1
NEPAL 756.13 9.81 7.22 105
PAKISTHAN 91.60 43.0 34.9 36.4
MALDIVES 732.5 16.24 11.61 106
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Operational Activities for Long-range Forecasting: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical Forecasting System
Monthly and seasonal rainfall and 2m temperature anomaly maps for the south Asia are prepared using the latest high resolution (T382L64) research version of the coupled forecasting system (CFS) model implemented at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune under Indian Monsoon Mission project. Updated every month.
Type of system: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical System (Numerical) Forecast: probabilistic and deterministic Model type and resolution: T382L64 Ensemble size: 12 members for hindcast and 40 members for forecast Details of forecasts period: 9 months Lead-time: One-month lead forecasts Period of verification: three-month period of Hindcast: 1981-2009 List of parameters: Precipitation, T2m and SST Details of verification data sets used :Precipitation: GPCP, T2m: ERA40, SST: NCEP
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LRF Maps
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Standard Verification Products
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ENSO & IOD Forecast Bulletin (Every month)
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19
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Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia
27/04/2016
20
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South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Background
In Asia, China has been coordinating a RCOF called ‘Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (FOCRA II) since 2005, covering the entire Asian continent.
Asia is a large continent with large differences in the climatological settings on a sub-regional scale. Therefore WMO's Regional Association II (Asia) recommended sub-regional RCOFs devoted to specific needs of groups of countries having similar climatic characteristics.
Implementation of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) in 2010 is a step in that direction with specific focus on the climate information needs of nations affected by the Asian summer monsoon climate.
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South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Background
The annual Climate of the south Asia is dominated by two monsoons: SW and NE monsoons.
The summer monsoon plays a crucial role in the entire socio-economic fabric of South Asia, highly influencing all walks of life. The summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall accounts for 75–90% of the annual rainfall of the most of the countries of the region.
During SW monsoon season, most intense rainfall activity is seen over the North Eastern parts of the region over Bangladesh, India and adjoining Myanmar. West coast of India also experiences high rainfall amounts owing to the steep topography of the “Western Ghats”.
During NE monsoon and early winter months, substantial rainfall results over the region covering the Southern tip of India and Sri Lanka as the prevailing northeasterly trade winds over the region gain strength.
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27/04/2016
Rainfall Features of South Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Month
Annual Cycle of Nation-wide Rainfall of 8 South Asian Countries
Afganisthan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
India
Nepal
Pakisthan
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Data source: APHRODITE's daily grided rainfall data http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/
JJAS Climatology: 1951-2000
Contribution of Seasonal Rainfall to the Annual Rainfall
http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/Chart2
JanJanJanJanJanJanJan5.418
FebFebFebFebFebFebFeb7.908
MarMarMarMarMarMarMar22.058
AprAprAprAprAprAprApr45.806
MayMayMayMayMayMayMay90.506
JunJunJunJunJunJunJun158.392
JulJulJulJulJulJulJul200.298
AugAugAugAugAugAugAug154.416
SepSepSepSepSepSepSep106.692
OctOctOctOctOctOctOct43
NovNovNovNovNovNovNov7.484
DecDecDecDecDecDecDec3.55
Afganisthan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
India
Nepal
Pakisthan
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Month
Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Annual Cycle of Nation-wide Rainfall of 8 South Asian Countries
19.922
5.72
7.868
11.568
16.242
12.796
78.636
25.29
10.786
10.28
12.302
15.078
15.878
55.976
32.182
26.178
18.762
16.896
20.48
20.65
53.554
22.972
63.526
39.74
23.598
24.65
14.988
109.076
13.258
147.45
141.504
43.762
52.63
9.528
95.612
3.682
252.63
258.634
119.564
145.042
10.128
56.724
5.72
276.58
287.22
217.278
251.034
40.562
55.436
5.44
223.218
286.298
199.208
223.002
35.814
54.472
3.414
175.094
199.158
127.574
134.58
14.928
86.094
4.906
92.022
118.008
57.548
39.342
5.19
183.37
7.492
16.756
36.352
20.362
5.364
3.84
216.362
14.036
4.252
8.314
10.764
7.396
8.43
169.46
Sheet1
AfganisthanBangladeshBhutanMyanmarIndiaNepalPakisthanSri Lanka
Jan19.9225.725.4187.86811.56816.24212.79678.636
Feb25.2910.7867.90810.2812.30215.07815.87855.976
Mar32.18226.17822.05818.76216.89620.4820.6553.554
Apr22.97263.52645.80639.7423.59824.6514.988109.076
May13.258147.4590.506141.50443.76252.639.52895.612
Jun3.682252.63158.392258.634119.564145.04210.12856.724
Jul5.72276.58200.298287.22217.278251.03440.56255.436
Aug5.44223.218154.416286.298199.208223.00235.81454.472
Sep3.414175.094106.692199.158127.574134.5814.92886.094
Oct4.90692.02243118.00857.54839.3425.19183.37
Nov7.49216.7567.48436.35220.3625.3643.84216.362
Dec14.0364.2523.558.31410.7647.3968.43169.46
Annual158.3141294.212845.5281412.138860.424934.84192.7321214.772
JJAS18.256927.522619.7981031.31663.624753.658101.432252.726
Sheet1
Afganisthan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
India
Nepal
Pakisthan
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Month
Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Annual Cycle of Nation-wide Rainfall of 8 South Asian Countries
Sheet2
Sheet3
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27/04/2016
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Background
Several studies have highlighted the critical dependence of crop production on summer monsoon rainfall. The summer monsoon rainfall is also important for hydroelectric power generation and meeting drinking water requirements. Thus, being essentially driven by agricultural growth, the economies of all South Asian countries are inextricably tied to the performance of the summer monsoon.
Therefore, prior information about the performance of the monsoon over South Asia will always be helpful for the society in planning risk management strategies.
Although substantial progress has been made in its understanding, prediction in respect of different aspects of the monsoon, particularly rainfall during the season with sufficient lead time, has remained a challenge for meteorologists/researchers across the globe even today.
Monsoon knowledge and its prediction stand for a shared challenge for South Asian nations which led to the development of a consensus focused on the outlook for the ensuing summer monsoon
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South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Beginning & Objectives
In a meeting convened by WMO, the Directors General of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asia and Permanent Representatives (PRs) of the respective countries with WMO, at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, on 6 August 2009, the PRs of south Asian nations with the WMO had unanimously agreed to establish a South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), to be implemented from 2010 onwards. The main objectives of SASCOF are the following.
To review the progress made in understanding and long range prediction of summer monsoon both regionally and globally;
To make available detailed information on climate variability in South Asia for dissemination along with the seasonal outlook;
To provide a platform for the stakeholders of SASCOF to share and exchange experience and knowledge on summer monsoon and its prediction;
To initiate capacity building/human resource development activities for the South Asian region, particularly in seasonal prediction;
To build collaboration and partnerships among the members of SASCOF for mutual benefit;
To identify needs of user sectors through a dialog among different groups.
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SASCOF meetings so far SASCO is co-sponsored by WMO and coordinated by IMD, currently under
the demonstration phase for a WMO RCC for South Asia and IITM at Pune. Participating Countries- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Fora are conducted every year during the third week of the April month.
The first three sessions and 5th session were held in Pune, India (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014). The fourth session was held in Kathmandu, Nepal (2013) and the last session (2015) was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh.The first three meetings of SASCOF were held in Pune, India jointly hosted by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) with the support of WMO.
During SASCOF-1, the Forum observed that many countries in the region lack capacity and infrastructure for the climate services. Therefore, the Forum strongly recommended the initiation of a capacity building/human resource development plan for the South Asian nations, particularly for seasonal prediction. Accordingly, from the second SASCOF onwards, capacity building training workshop for participants from south Asian countries were became important part of the forum meeting.
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Preparation and Evaluation of Consensus Forecast
Consensus outlook is prepared based on the expert assessment of prevailing large scale global climate indicators, experimental models developed during capacity building workshops and experimental as well as operational long range forecasts based on statistical and dynamical models generated by various operational and research centers including Global Producing Centres (GPCs). At least 50% of the forecast information is derived from various dynamical models.
The evaluation of the consensus forecasts issued during the last six years
(2010-2016) underlined the performance of the large scale rainfall over the region during the season correctly indicated by the consensus forecasts, but during all the years, some differences were noticed in the forecast for the regional rainfall distribution. It may mentioned that the forum this year had issued a consensus forecast of below normal 2015 southwest monsoon season rainfall for the region and so far the realised rainfall over the region has been below normal.
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Consensus Forecast Issued and Verification (2010-2015)
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27-Apr-16
Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2010 Forecast: Based on the prevailing global climate indicators and forecasts
from statistical and global dynamical models, rainfall over South Asia, in general, is likely to be within the normal range (No forecast map were produced).
GPCP PRECIPITATION ANOMALY: JJAS 2010
Arrived based on both Statistical and Dynamical Model Forecasts
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27-Apr-16
Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2011
FCST OBS
Forecast: Over South Asia, for the season as a whole, the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall would most likely be within the normal range. There is slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over the northwestern parts and some northeastern parts of South Asia. On the other hand, there is slightly enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall over the southern parts of South Asia including the islands. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia.
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27-Apr-16
Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2012
OBS
Forecast: Over South Asia and for the season as a whole, the large-scale summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall would most likely be normal. However, the expert assessment also noted a slight tendency for the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall to be below normal. There is slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over some broad areas of northwestern and southern parts of South Asia. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia
FCST
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27-Apr-16
Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2013
OBS
Forecast: The large-scale summer monsoon rainfall for South Asia and the season (June – September) as a whole will most likely be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards the higher side of the normal range. In terms of spatial distribution of rainfall, the more likely scenario is for below normal rainfall over some areas of northwestern and southern parts of South Asia and for above normal rainfall over some areas along the Himalayan region. Rainfall conditions close to the long-period average are more likely over the remaining parts.
FCST
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Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2014
27/04/2016 33
Below-normal to normal rainfall is most likely during the 2014 summer monsoon season (June – September) over south Asia as a whole. Below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southernmost parts of the region.
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Consensus forecast of SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued in April every year)
27/04/2016
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Consensus Rainfall Forecast: 2015 Observed Rainfall
Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over South Asia as a whole. Below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. It is noteworthy that except southern part of islands of the region no other part of South Asia has above-normal rainfall as the most likely category.
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Consensus outlook for 2015 northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia
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Consensus Rainfall Forecast Observed Rainfall
Normal to above normal rainfall is likely during the 2015 Northeast monsoon season (October–December)over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Above normal rainfall is likely over northern most parts of the region. Other areas of the region that generally receive very little rain during the season are likely to receive normal rainfall. During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
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Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring
Spatial Maps of Climate Variables Mean Sea Level Pressure Maximum & Temperature Temperatures Rainfall Mean Wind Anomaly Velocity Potential Stream Function OLR Anomaly ENSO Indices Indian Ocean Dipole
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Climate Publications
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Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring
Climate Data Ceter IMD Pune has a long time series of various Climate Data meticulously preserved at National Data Centre (NDC), Pune. Climate Data services and data rescue are the important activities of the NDC. Under Data Rescue activity, the data set of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures recorded during the period 1889 to 1930 (based on 8 AM observations) from India and 109 stations from south and West Asia have been recently digitised. The following high resolution gridded climate data sets over Indian region are available. The data are being updated regularly. 1oX1o Gridded daily rainfall data (1951-2014) based on 2140 stations. 1oX1o Gridded daily rainfall data (1901-2014) based on 1384 stations. 0.5o X 0.5o Gridded daily rainfall data (1971-2005). 0.25o X 0.25o Gridded daily rainfall data (1901-2014). 1oX1o Gridded daily Temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data
(1951-2013). In addition, 0.5o X 0.5o Gridded daily rainfall (Guage + TRMM) data (1998-
2013) over south Asia.
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COMPLETED PLAN PROJECTS DATA RESCUE SCHEME (2012) : ABOUT 45 LAKH MMR DATA SHEETS (PHASE I) SCANNED FROM ALL RMC / MC AROUND 2.8 CRORE RECS DIGITIZED SCANNED IMAGES; DATA - VIEW INTERFACE MADE AVAILABLE ARCHIVAL / PHOTOGRAPHY OF ANALYSED WEATHER CHARTS (2012) : ABOUT 4.5 LAKH CHARTS (PHASE I) ON NAS REMOTE ACCESS COMPLETED IN 2010-12; WWW.IMDPUNE/OLDCHARTS AUTOGRAPH CHART DIGITISATION: PILOT PROJECT (15000 CHARTS) (2013) THERMOGRAPH, HYGROGRAPH, BAROGRAPH (5 YEARS; 3 STNS) DATA EXTRACTION FROM CHARTS SOFTWARE / UTILITIES PREPARED
DIGITISE PAST DATA
PHOTOGRAPH CHARTS
AUTO CHARTS EXTRACTION
ARCHIVAL OF CHARTS
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Training in the use of operational RCC products and services
Training and capacity building: The Meteorological Training Institute (MTI) of IMD at Pune is one of the WMO RMTCs. Regular training courses, refresher courses and specialized training courses for the IMD personnel as well as personnel from various national and international organizations are being conducted here in various branches of meteorology. The subjects include climate science and climate services. MTI conducts routine training courses on different disciplines of Operational Meteorology, at different levels (ab-initio, carrier progression) with duration ranging from 4 to 12 months for Indian nationals (Including IMD personnel) as well as for foreign nationals (including personnel form South Asia). In all such training courses, Climate has occupied a very important place either as Climatology or as Climate Science. Besides Indian Climatology, the course content of such Climate modules contains basics of Climate Science, Climate Change, Climate prediction tool, climate information etc. Besides, MTI organises many short term tailor made training courses on the themes of topical interest. MTI has also added a short term course on “Operational Climate Service”
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SASCOF Training workshops Associated with SASCOFs
forum meetings, Training workshops on seasonal prediction are also conducted. Centre designs and conducts the training workshops as per the regional requirement. Support of international experts is also used. The participating climate experts from the NMHS of the region are trained in using, interpreting and downscaling global seasonal prediction products and developing a consensus outlook.
SASCOF-6
SASCOF-4
SASCOF-5
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Future Plans Develop MME based LRF products for the region Prepare gridded climate data over the region Develop tools for Extended Range Forecasting Prepare consensus forecast outlook for all seasons Develop Climate data management services Conduct tailor made training courses for climate
services (Eg. General Meteorology course of 1 month duration for middle level forecasters in SAARC countries)
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27/04/2016 44
Thank you
Slide Number 1RCC, Pune: BackgroundSlide Number 3Operational Long Range Forecasts Based on Statistical Models for IndiaSkill of the statistical models currently used for the operational LRF of Monsoon Rainfall over IndiaPerformance of Operational Forecast (Empirical Model) for �All India Seasonal Rainfall (1988-2015): Statistical Models for SAARC CountriesBangladeshBhutanMyanmarSri LankaNepalPakisthanMaldivesForecasts for 2015 from MR Models �Developed during SASCOF Workshops Operational Activities for Long-range Forecasting: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical Forecasting System �LRF MapsStandard Verification ProductsENSO & IOD Forecast Bulletin (Every month)�Seasonal Climate Outlook for South AsiaSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundRainfall Features of South AsiaSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): BackgroundSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF): Beginning & ObjectivesSASCOF meetings so farPreparation and Evaluation of Consensus ForecastConsensus Forecast Issued and Verification (2010-2015)Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2010Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2011Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2012Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2013Verification of Forecast for South Asia - 2014Consensus forecast of SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued in April every year) �Consensus outlook for 2015 northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South AsiaOperational Activities for Climate Monitoring�Climate Publications Operational Data Services, to support� operational LRF and climate monitoringCOMPLETED PLAN PROJECTSTraining in the use of operational RCC products and services�Slide Number 41SASCOF Training workshops�Future PlansThank you
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