reliability challenges white paper
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Challenges White Paper
Victoria L. Ravenscroft Senior Policy Analyst
Conclusions/Results
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
Conclusions/Results
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
3
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Challenges White Paper
• First step in operationalizing the Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
• Culmination of conversations over last 4 months
• Staff developed, now seeking stakeholder feedback
• Feeds development of Work Plan Priorities
Changing Resource Mix
Potential challenges …• Ensuring resource
adequacy
• Considering a wide range of drivers
• Accounting for system composition, e.g., resource location
2013 Capacity and Energy ProductionWestern Interconnection (U.S. only)
Retirement of Conventional Generation
Potential challenges …• Planning for hydro
limitations
• Re-evaluating nuclear’s role
• Maintaining Essential Reliability Services
• Accounting for local, state, and federal policies
2013 Added and Retired Capacity (MW)
Natural Gas-Electric Interdependencies
Potential challenges …• Understanding supply
issues
• Reconciling differences in scheduling practices
• Planning for and operating during severe weather events
2012 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector
Changing Load Composition
Potential challenges …• Managing high levels of new
types of demand, e.g., PHEV• Accounting for demand-
related policies, e.g., energy efficiency
• Leveraging demand control and reduction mechanisms, e.g., demand-side management
2012 Electricity Consumption by Sector(Western Interconnection U.S. only)
Effects of Changing Climate
Potential challenges …• Managing the operational impacts
from changes in – Temperature– Extreme weather events– Wildfires
• Planning for resource adequacy impacts
• Coping with immediate and long-term effects of drought
• Responding to policies addressing climate change
Western Climate Regions
Integration of Variable Generation
Potential challenges …• Understanding the
drivers
• Managing uncertainty
• Balancing variability
Wind and Solar Capacity Additions (MW)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
SolarWind
Balancing Variability
Potential challenges …• Planning for flexibility
• Holding Operating Reserves
• Diversifying variability
• Implementing scheduling changes
Example Wind and Solar Base-Load Ramping Scenario
34
30
26
22
18
14
10
8
6
4
2
0
Load
& N
et L
oad
(1,0
00 M
W) W
ind & Solar (1,000 M
W)
0:00
6:00
12:0
0
18:0
0
24:0
0
Distributed Generation
Potential challenges …• Managing variability• Improving visibility of DG resources• Coordinating control of DG resources• Reconciling practices and standards on response to
faults
Situational Awareness
Potential challenges …• Increasing use of real-
time tools
• Coordinating information and data exchange
• Expanding external visibility in models
• Improving consistency and quality of next-day studies
Use of Situational Awareness Tools(% Entities Surveyed in 2014)
Equipment Failure
Potential challenges …• Reducing outages
caused by equipment failure
• Minimizing the impact of equipment failures
Automatic Transmission Outages Caused by Equipment Failure
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
50
100
150
200
250
300
Protection System Reliability
Potential challenges …• Evaluating and managing
the interaction of RAS
• Ensuring proper relay settings
• Reducing relay misoperations
2013 Misoperations by Cause
Operational Practices
Potential challenges …• Evaluating trends in operational practices
• Identifying best practices
• Promoting adoption of practices across diverse entities
Cybersecurity
Potential challenges …• Securing assets and managing access • Detecting potential threats• Balancing benefits of technology with increased
exposure to cyber risks• Identifying significant vulnerabilities on
regional/Interconnection-wide basis
Physical Security
Potential challenges …• Ensuring proactive
approach to physical security
• Securing grid against a range of threats
• Implementing CIP-014-1
• Managing costs
• Addressing accessibility of assets
2011 2012 2013 Total
Physical Attack 1 2 6 9
Physical Attack – Vandalism 38 11 25 74
Suspected Physical Attack 12 22 5 39
Suspicious Activity 2 1
Total 53 35 37 125
Physical Security Electric Disturbances (DOE Form OE-417)
High-Impact Low-Frequency Events
Potential challenges …• Preventing coordinated cyber and/or physical attack• Mitigating potential impacts of geomagnetic
disturbances• Identifying potential impacts of a pandemic• Predicting and mitigating impacts of large-scale
disasters• Balancing probability v. risk in investment decisions
Impacts of State Policy and Regulation
Potential challenges …• Identifying policy and
regulatory drivers
• Ensuring policies and regulations consider reliability concerns
• Emphasizing interconnected nature of the grid
Western Climate Regions
EPA 111(d) Clean Power Plan
Potential challenges …• Evaluating the reliability impacts
• Accounting for flexibility in implementation
EPA 111(d) Compliance Building Blocks
Building Block 1: Coal Plant Efficiency
Improve the heat rate of coal-fired power plants by 6%.
Building Block 2: Increased Gas Use
Increase utilization of gas plants up to 70% capacity factor.
Building Block 3: Renewables and Nuclear
Increase renewable and nuclear generation. Delay or cancel nuclear retirements.
Building Block 4: Energy Efficiency
Increase energy efficiency to reduce demand by 1.5% per year.
Functional Model
Potential challenges …• Aligning registration with
the Functional Model
• Addressing gaps in Planning Coordinator registration
• Evaluating role of the Path Operator
• Coordinating seams issues between registered functions
Count of Selected Registered Entities in the Western Interconnection
Registered Entities #
Balancing Authority (BA) 37
Generation Operator (GOP) 241
Generation Owner (GO) 247
Load Serving Entity (LSE) 121
Planning Authority (PA) 31
Reserve Sharing Group (RSG) 3
Resource Planner (RP) 56
Transmission Operator (TOP) 65
Transmission Owner (TO) 97
Transmission Planner (TP) 47
Transmission Service Provider (TSP) 37
Workforce
Potential challenges …• Managing the workforce retirement transition• Addressing the reduction in knowledge capital• Managing cognitive overload created by increasing
volume of tools, information, etc.
23
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Feedback
Seeking feedback on• Challenges• Actions• In-Progress and Planned
WorkNOT seeking• Redline or editorial
changes
Website www.wecc.biz
(link on front page)
Email feedback to reliabilitychallenge@wecc.biz
Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014
Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
Conclusions/Results
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Performance Analysis
Registered Entity Oversight
Reliability Planning
Stakeholder Outreach
AdequacyAssessments
Contingency Analyses
Event Analysis
Policy Impact Studies
Congestion Analyses
Stability Studies
Reliability Issue
Integrated Approach to Addressing Key Reliability Issues
What are the potential impacts to RELIABILITY?
Reliability Issue
26
W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
White Paper Feedback
Website www.wecc.biz
(link on front page)
Email feedback to reliabilitychallenge@wecc.biz
Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014
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