renewable energy: an iea perspective
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© OECD/IEA 2010
Renewable EnergyAn IEA Perspective
Amb. Richard H. JonesDeputy Executive DirectorInternational Energy Agency
VI Encuentro Internacional de Energías RenovablesSantiago, Chile, 10-11 May 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010
Contents
Recent trends
Costs and Benefits
Outlook for renewables in IEA scenarios
Opportunities for Chile
Principles and examples for effective policies
© OECD/IEA 2010
Strong Growth in Electricity …
Wind Bioenergy Solar PV Hydro other
Generation 2010 [TWh]
338 296 31 3503 74
CAGR 2005-2010 [%]
26.5% 8.8% 50.8% 3.1% 4.6%
© OECD/IEA 2010
…and in Heat and Transport• 3% share of road
transport • Grew at 26% per
year in average• Growth focused in
Brazil, US, EU
• Rapid growth in solar water heating
• Focused mainly in China
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Brazil bioethanol US bioethanolEU-27 biodiesel RoW biofuels
Mto
e
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20406080
100120140160180200
Rest of world China
GW
th
© OECD/IEA 2010
Costs are Reducing
Growing deployment has led to cost reductions in key technologies
Hydro and some geothermal already cost-competitive
New technologies such as wind onshore and biomass are competitive in a broader set of circumstances
Data from Breyer and Gerlach, 2010
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 0001
10
100
< 1976
< 1980
< 1990
< 2000
< 2010
Cumulative capacity (MW)
PV
Mo
du
le P
ric
e (
US
D 2
01
0/W
p)
Learning Rate: 19.3%
PV still expensive but 19% cost reduction for each capacity doubling; parity with retail prices in the next fiveyears in countries with high insolation and electricity prices
© OECD/IEA 2010
Renewable Electricity Generating Costs
Bioenerg
y
Bioenerg
y cofirin
g
Geotherm
al
Solar
PVCSP
Hydro
Wind onsh
ore
Wind offsh
ore
Wav
e and tidal
New co
al
New ga
s CCGT
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
LCO
E
($/M
Wh)
Large ranges depending on technology and resource Competitiveness with new fossil power plants depending on local
conditions, but getting competitive in more circumstances
© OECD/IEA 2010
Why Renewables?Climate Protection
Economic Development
Energy Access and Security
• Improved diversity• Reduced exposure to
volatile world energy prices
• Using natural resource
• Import savings
• Green jobs• Impact on
rural employment
• Stimulus for innovation and development
• CO2 savings• Air quality
© OECD/IEA 2010
Market Expansion Opportunities
Leading countries
New opportunities
New opportunities
© OECD/IEA 2010
Policy Trends
Many more countries putting policies in place, particularly outside OECD than in 2005
45 of the 56 focus countries in Deploying Renewables 2011 now have RE Electricity targets, including 20 non-OECD members
53 of the 56 focus countries have electricity support policies in place, compared to 35 in 2005
© OECD/IEA 2011
Low-carbon power technologies come of age
Global installed power generation capacityin the New Policies Scenario
Renewables account for about half of all the new capacity added worldwide through to 2035
Nuclear additions
Renewable additions
Fossil-fuel additions
Existing 2010 capacity
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GW
© OECD/IEA 2011
Growing shares of renewables
All scenarios point out a large growth of renewables
2008 CPS scenario 2035 NPS scenario 2035 450 scenario 20350.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
Electricity Heat Transport
3900 TWh
11100 TWh
2009
15000 TWh
© OECD/IEA 2010
Continuing Policy Support: Necessary and Justified
Policies need to continue to deliver energy security, environmental and economic benefits
Need for economic incentivesRE technologies not yet generally cost competitive under
current pricing mechanisms (e.g. lack of global carbon pricing)Transitional support needed to stimulate learning and cost
reduction and bring a larger portfolio of RET to competitiveness
Address non-economic barriers that hamper deploymentAccess to market and administrative hurdlesAccess to finance Infrastructure barriersLack of awareness and skilled personnelPublic acceptance and environmental barriers
Policies need to have highest impact at lowest costs
© OECD/IEA 2010
Many opportunities for Chile
• Hydro• Geothermal• Wind• Biomass• And even Marine
energy
Source; NREL
A large and well diversified RE potential!
Not only the best solar resource in the continent but also:
© OECD/IEA 2010
Overarching Best-PracticePolicy Principles
1. Predictable RE policy framework, integrated into overall energy strategy
2. Portfolio of incentives based on technology and market maturity
3. Dynamic policy approach based on monitoring of national and global market trends
4. Tackle non-economic barriers5. Address system integration issues
© OECD/IEA 2010
Many Good Market Based Policy Examples…
US States – quotas and fiscal incentives Brazil – tendering scheme Europe – emerging flexible and market-
oriented premium systems
• Opportunity to benefit from many years of policy experience and emerging best practice
• Policy portfolio needs to be tailored to national priorities and conditions
© OECD/IEA 2010
Conclusions
RE is an important component of any secure and sustainable energy economy
Renewables are cost competitive in an increasingly wider set of circumstances
Chile has a large and diverse resource base Policy experience is available to help develop
portfolio of policies suited to Chile’s priorities and conditions
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