republic of the philippines department of energy coal market outlook in the apec region alejandro f....

Republic of the PhilippinesDEPARTMENT OF ENERGYDEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

IN THE APEC REGION

Alejandro F. Oanes

Geothermal & Coal Resources Development Division

Energy Resource Development Bureau

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

I. Introduction

II. Current Coal Market Situation in APEC

III. Energy Outlook within APEC

IV. Coal Market Outlook for Major Players

V. Coal Price

VI. Conclusion

THE BOGOR GOALS OF APEC

• Trade and investment liberalization that works for the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade and investment

• Business facilitation to work for improved access to trade information and aligned policy and business strategies for trade

• Economic and technical cooperation for capacity building to enable members to meet their economic potential

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

Coal Proven Reserves, Million Tonsat end 2005

APEC Countries68%

Non-APEC Countries

32%

APEC Countries

75%

Non-APEC Countries

25%

Coal Production (million TOE)as of end 2005

Coal Consumption (million TOE)as of end 2005

APEC Countries

73%

Non-APEC Countries

27%

CURRENT COAL MARKET

SITUATION IN APEC

Australia13%

China19%

Indonesia1%

Russia26%

USA39%

Others1% Canada

1%

APEC Coal Reserves as of end 2005

615.309 Million Tons

Australia9%

China51%Indonesia

4%

Russia6%

USA26%

Vietnam1%

Others1%

Canada2%

APEC Coal Production2,175 MTOE

APEC Coal Production

as of end 2005

China50%

USA27%

Australia2%

Japan6%

Russia5%

Indonesia1%

South Korea3%

Canada2%

Chinese Taipei2%

Thailand1% Others

1%

APEC Coal Consumption2,133.7 MTOE

APEC Coal Consumptionas of end 2005

Net coal

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Australia

Indonesia

China

Russia

Canada

New

Zealand

United S

tates

Peru

Mexico

Chile

Philippines

Thailand

Malaysia

Hongkong

Chinese T

aipei

S. K

orea

Japan

Mil

lio

n T

on

s O

il E

qu

iva

len

t (M

TO

E)

Net Coal as of end 2005

ENERGY OUTLOOK

WITHIN APEC

Source: Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (2005)

Primary Energy Supply Outlook 2002-2020

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Others

1999 2005 2010 2015 2020

MT

OE

Source: Asia Pacific Energy Center 2002

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

FOR MAJOR PLAYERS

Coal Consumption Forecast to 2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/NewZealand

Russia China

Milli

on

Sh

ort

To

ns

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: Reference Case Projections, InternationalEenergy Outlook 2006, EIA

AVERAGE PRICE PER METRIC TON (C & F)TO THE PHILPPINES

0

20

40

60

80

100

2003 2004 2005 2006

YEAR

PR

ICE

(U

S$

) Australia

China

Indonesia

South Africa

Vietnam

Source: Philippine Department of Energy

Panian Pit, Semirara Mining Corporation, Philippines

TERIMA KASIHTERIMA KASIHSalamat Po!

Thank You!