research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
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Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-‐
livestock-‐tree systems
Henry Neufeldt World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
Nutritional content of global cereal supply has declined as
production has increased since 1960.
DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240 Published by AAAS
Intensifica<on has spared 18 to 27 million hectares that would have been required to produce the same amount of cereals with yields equivalent to those in the mid-‐1960s.
But intensifica<on can exacerbate land-‐clearing in the absence of appropriate policies and enforcement. Moreover, intensifica<on relies on high inputs of energy, fer<lizer, pes<cides, and water.
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.019
79
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Years
Rea
l GD
P g
row
th (%
)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Var
iabi
lity
in R
ainf
all (
Met
er)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Correla8on between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe
• Farmers most interested in reducing food insecurity • No long-‐ or medium-‐term planning possible under food insecure situa<on • Tree plan<ng (and other investments in livelihood improvements) only
aTer basic food security is guaranteed • Food insecurity rose by at least one month (above on average 3 months)
during drought and flooding • Coping strategies lead into ‘poverty trap’ • Agroforestry reduced food insecurity by about 1 month
All #s in %
Reduce Quan<ty, Quality or # of meals
Comm-‐unity or family support
Help from Gov, NGO, Church
Borrow money
Casual Labor
Sell possess-‐ions or livestock
Consume Seeds
Children a^end school less
Lower Nyando
85 30 42 32 28 72 72 38
Middle Nyando
38 23 18 37.5 25 40 61 12.5
Farmer climate coping strategies
Thorlakson and Neufeldt 2012
Climate change impacts on yields
2°C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shar
e of
wor
ld G
DP 3°C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shar
e of
wor
ld G
DP
Extra costs without adaptationAdaptation costsMitigation costsResidual damages
Baseline
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shar
e of
wor
ld G
DP
Globally, residual damages can be limited with 2 degrees and adapta<on
(Source: Hof et al., 2010)
Photos: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Humanity’s provisioning at the
land water energy nexus and
“safe(r) space”
What will we call the boundaries of Safe(r) opera8ng spaces for the food systems?
Beddington et al, 2012. Science And how will we nest scales effec<vely and efficiently?
Short term Long term
Food security
Mi<ga<on Adapta<on
Small scales
Large scales
Climate-‐smart agriculture
Efficiency
Fairness
Food Systems
Presenter ICLT systems/ prac8ces
Labor demand
Land area available
Degree of mechaniza8on
Scalability?
Luis Alvarez Welchez
Sistema Quesungual High Low Low Low?
Tilahun Amede
CLS in SSA Rainwater management Micro dosing
High High High
Medium Low L to H
Low Low to high Low
Medium? High High
Paulo Herrmann
iLPF (ICLF) in Brazil Low High High High
Muhammad Ibrahim
Live fences Mul<strata systems Silvopastoral systems
Medium High High
Low Low Medium
Low Low Low
Medium Low Medium?
Paul Burges Dehasa Montado Bocage Wood pastures Intercropping Grazed orchards Alley cropping
Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Low
Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High
Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High
Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium? Medium High
Sustainability Challenges – Land Use
Food vs. Fuel
Pastoral Land Use
Biodiversity
Watershed
Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability
Innova8on and food security
Rela<onship between innova<veness (number of farming system changes) and household food security (number of food deficit months). Error bars indicate the 95% confidence interval of the mean
Kristjanson et al 2012
Financial benefits of no-‐<ll wheat produc<on in northern Kasakhstan
Derpsch et al 2010
Researching, learning, impac8ng together!
hQps://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&trk=&gid=6657402
hQp://ccsl.wikispaces.com/Sandbox
h^p://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/CCAFSbaseline/faces/StudyLis<ngPage.xhtml;jsessionid=efc0985167adbf520e185e5a39b1?mode=1&collec<onId=4844
Effects of tenure on land management
Constraints: insecure tenure
Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts Unadjud Freehold Tenure
Effect Net returns to land ($ ha-‐1 y-‐1) $126 $288 2.28 Woody crops, woodlots etc (ha km-‐2) 5.4 25.6 4.7 Hedgerows (km km-‐2) 5.2 23.6 4.5 Social cost from embedding -‐$40 $30 $70 Social "tax" -‐32% +10% Norton-‐Griffiths 2012
Priority Ac8ons: v Improve networking and partnership
building for climate adapta<on along the value chain by strengthening exis<ng plaoorms at all levels and explore the role of market incen<ves in suppor<ng such ac<vi<es,
v Develop new, flexible financial products to support climate-‐resilient and inclusive agro-‐value chains through capac i ty bui ld ing and innova<ve public-‐private partnerships,
v I n v e s t i n c l i m a t e -‐ r e s i l i e n t infrastructures such as roads, irriga<on systems, storage fac i l i<es and telecommunica<ons should remain a top priority to support agro-‐value chain development and build produc<ve capaci<es in a changing climate.
CRCV ini<a<ve
Value chains: a case of climate-‐resilient coffee (2)
Global market forces
Chesterman and Neely, 2015
– Moving from sex disaggregated diagnos<c research towards informing, catalyzing and targe<ng adapta<on and mi<ga<on solu<ons to women
– Finding: Gender norms must be addressed to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Gender and inclusion for resilience
• Can we predict what makes integrated crop-‐livestock-‐tree systems scalable? • How can we incen<vize the adop<on of ICLTS through horizontal and ver<cal scaling? • What are the metrics we need to characterize system proper<es at appropriate scales? • How can we support decision-‐makers (at all relevant scales) in making be^er decisions?
Evergreen agriculture with
Faidherbia albida
Sendzimir et al 2011
GHG mi<ga<on through agroforestry by regions
Region Annual rate 2000-‐2010 2011-‐2030 (Mt CO2/yr) (Mt CO2) (Mt CO2)
North America 24.6 270 491 Central America 10.1 111 201 South America 157.3 1,730 3,145 Europe 7.2 79 144 N Africa + W Asia 2.7 29 53 Sub-‐Saharan Africa 10.0 110 201 N + Central Asia -‐4.0 -‐44 -‐79 South Asia 23.5 258 469 South-‐East Asia 23.8 262 477 East Asia 36.2 398 723 Oceania 19.2 211 384 Globe 262.8 2,891 5,256
% Gt CO2/yr 0 0.26 20 0.37 25 0.39 30 0.41 50 0.47
"The landscape approach has been championed by organiza<ons ac<ve in the development and conserva<on sectors for many years, though the concept has been slow to migrate into mainstream corporate thinking. Now this report from the Landscape for People, Food and Nature Ini<a<ve, sets out a case for companies to think about their business in landscape terms."
-‐ José Lopez, Execu?ve Vice
President, Opera?ons, Nestlé S.A.
Connec<ng commodi<es to landscapes through public-‐private-‐civic partnerships SBSTA 40, 6 June 2014
Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
Agribusinesses and food sector response to sustainability risks from field to landscape
Connec<ng commodi<es to landscapes through public-‐private-‐civic partnerships SBSTA 40, 6 June 2014
Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
The$Guardian$
www.getreal.com,
Photo: Guardian
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
AGROECOSYSTEM
ASSETS
Mi<ga<on Economic changes Buffer filter
Abundant Limited
Fragile Robust
Strong
Weak
A
External drivers,
hasards and exposure
PATHWAY Time 1 à Time 2 SCENARIOS A. Different driver B. Same asset
Less vulnerable
More vulnerable
1
2
B
UNCERTAINTY CLOUD
Indicator -‐ AE 1 -‐ AE2 -‐ AE3 -‐ … -‐ AEN
Indicator -‐ A1 -‐ A2 -‐ A3 -‐ A4 -‐ … -‐ AN
Indicator -‐ I1 -‐ I2 -‐ I3 -‐ … -‐ IN
Reduced Risk
Increased Risk Based on Fraser et al, 2011
Agreement on goals/values
No agreement on goals/values
High uncertainty
Low uncertainty
The role of science and research in complex systems
Straighoorward design
Providing arguments
Monitor emerging change
Collabora<ve ac<on research
Study diversity
Experiment with mul<ple op<ons
Extracted from Leeuwis, 2014
Complex systems thinking
Discovery, tes<ng and implementa<on of mechanisms across scales that allow for adap<ve management and adap<ve governance of social-‐ecological systems essen<al for long-‐term human provisioning Development of integrated metrics of safe space that are prac<cal and meaningful for decision-‐making by relevant communi<es in near real <me Systema<c gathering and integra<on of quality data and informa<on to generate knowledge in <me frames and at scales relevant for decision-‐making through analy<cal tools, models and scenarios Establishment of legi<mate and empowered science policy dialogues that frame post–disciplinary science agendas on local, na<onal and interna<onal scales
Key areas of science innova<on
Neufeldt et al 2013, Agriculture and Food Security
Research for the advancement of integrated crop-‐livestock-‐tree systems will need to become more integrated, post-‐disciplinary
and systems oriented
Thanks for a future
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