research practices that hinder innovation- webinar
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Nobody’s Unpredictable
Predicting market potential for business initiatives, with 20+ years validated history
Research Practices that Hinder Innovation
Stephen Bohnet, SVP & General Manager Ipsos Vantis
© 2011 Ipsos 2
Innovation is an investment
© 2011 Ipsos 3
Accelerating Returns
© 2011 Ipsos 4
The Video Rental Market
?
© 2011 Ipsos 5
Your role
© 2011 Ipsos 6
Predicting Market Potential for business initiatives,
with 20+ years of validated history
Ipsos Vantis Specializes in Innovation
A suite of powerful, fast, and affordable
services to help you identify winning
initiatives early in development by
assessing their true market potential.
Predict market potential
Prioritize features, ideas, & concepts
Define the consumer target
Measure the strength of the message
Identify key/motivating phrases in the
message
Measure buzz potential
A suite of customizable forecasting tools
for optimizing price, features, product
design, and marketing. Used for modeling
new products, portfolios, and categories.
Forecast units, revenues, profits
Feature simulation
Pricing simulation
Product & Prototype Design simulation
Measure Incrementality vs.
Cannibalization
Competitive war-gaming
Marketing plan simulation
Optimize & simulate launch scenarios Identify winning initiatives
© 2011 Ipsos 7
Business units focused on technology,
financial services, health, and durable
goods
World’s largest database of key measure
survey scores – over 25,000 concepts
tested (Consumer and B2B)
Proven track record of forecasting
accuracy through rigorous post-launch
validation and R&D relating survey results
to demand
Independent study of new products and
services, to strengthen our models and
build relevant case studies to share with
our clients
Leading edge innovations in quantitative
research
About Ipsos Vantis
© 2011 Ipsos 8
Ongoing Validations:
Past 6 Month Technology Innovations Studied
Iconia
Veriton Z290G
iPad 2
Macbook Air 2nd Edition
TV Second Edition
Buy Back Program
Playbook
Bluetooth Headset
Soundlink Wireless Music System
Boxee Box
Umi
Cloud Computer
Ultra HD
Kids Designer Tablet
TV
HD7
Surround
BRAVO MB520
FLIPOUT
FLIPSIDE
XOOM
3Ds
Rear-view Mirror
Viera Tablet
Ping
Switchblade
3D HDTV
Galaxy Tab
HT-D7100: Home Theater Cube
Virtually Edgeless LED HDTV
Full HD 3D camcorder
Playstation PSP2
Flex View
XVT Series 3D HDTV
XFINITY
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Predicting market potential for business initiatives, with 20+ years validated history
Research Practice #1:
How we measure success
© 2011 Ipsos 11
What do these new products & services have in
common?
© 2011 Ipsos 12
11% 15%
8%
19%
8%
6%
8%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
iPad Kindle Hulu+ Straight Talk
Top Two Box Purchase Intent
Definitely Would Buy/Sign Up
Probably Would Buy/Sign Up
All of these offers had average to low purchase intent
scores
19% 21%
16%
30%
© 2011 Ipsos 13
The Problem with the Hurdle
© 2011 Ipsos 14
Research Performance vs. Market Success
Concept Testing Rank
© 2011 Ipsos 15
Consumers like this idea and consider it highly unique, but have trouble
believing the claims or accepting the price. As its benefits become more
accepted and/or the price comes down, this product will have mass
potential.
Expect a fiercely competitive marketplace. Margins are likely to be tight
and payout will take time, as competitors vie for brand leadership in the
emerging category
Every Concept has a Unique Personality
Bottom 20 Percentile
Below Average Average
Above Average
Top 20 Percentile
Seek Information (Top Two Box %)
Purchase Intent (Top Two Box %)
Liking (Mean 6-Point Scale)
Price/Value (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Uniqueness (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Believability (Top Box%)
Need Fulfillment (Top Two Box %)
Bt
Breakthrough $
© 2011 Ipsos 17
Four Key Winning Profiles
Mass Potential Breakthrough Niche/Targeted Price/Fee Imbalance
Purchase Intent (Top Box %)
High Ave High Low
Purchase Intent (Top Two Box %)
High Low to Ave Low to Ave Low to Ave
Liking (Mean 6-Point Scale)
Ave to High High Low to Ave High
Price/Value (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Ave to High Low to Ave Low to Ave Low
Uniqueness (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Ave to High High Low to Ave Ave to High
Believability (Top Box%)
Ave to High Low Low to Ave Ave to High
Need Fulfillment (Top Two Box %)
Ave to High Low to Ave Low to Ave Ave to High
Van
tis K
ey M
easu
re
© 2011 Ipsos 18
How to Go Forward
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history
Percentage selecting phrase:
1-19% 20-34% 35-49% 50%+
© 2011 Ipsos 19
Linking Concept Performance and Message Execution
Strive for Clarity Market Ready
Winning ideas that are communications
challenged. These ideas may be more
difficult to communicate in market.
Strive for better message clarity and
focus.
Winning ideas with clear marketing
messages. Marketing investment
likely to solidly payoff.
Adjust & Retest Reconstruct or Bow-out
Poor performing ideas with unclear
messages. Adjustments to messaging
can often improve these weak
performers.
Poor performers with clear messages.
Consumers “get it” but don’t want it.
These are either simply poor ideas, or
ideas that need a major positioning
overhaul before they will succeed.
Message Power Score
Win
nin
g
Arc
hety
pe
Low
Lo
w
Pote
ntial
Mark
et
Pote
ntial
High
© 2011 Ipsos 20
High purchase intent is good, but it is not the only way forward
Recognize the other profiles of winners
– Many big innovations do not have high purchase intent initially
Be willing to iterate on ideas that show promise, but aren’t ready
Giving good guidance on HOW to move forward is as important as
identifying the right ideas
– Is your idea easy to communicate in the market?
– Are there ideas that aren’t ready for advancing, but should go through some fix-it steps,
then retest?
Recap: Measuring Success
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Predicting market potential for business initiatives, with 20+ years validated history
Research Practice #2:
What we show to the respondent
© 2011 Ipsos 22
Golden Rule: Model the Buying Process
If our purpose in evaluating a new offer is to
determine it’s potential in the market, then we
must show the idea to the consumer/customer
in such a manner that reflects what that person
will learn or experience when encountering the
product offer in the real world.
© 2011 Ipsos 23
The Concept
© 2011 Ipsos 24
In many categories it is becoming increasingly difficult to
differentiate the hardware
© 2011 Ipsos 25
Show Me, Don’t Tell Me
© 2011 Ipsos 26
© 2011 Ipsos 27
51%
13%
31%
3.8
3.3
3.6
44%
29%
Microsoft Kinect Scores
Seek Information (Top Two Box %)
Purchase Intent (Top Box %)
Purchase Intent (Top Two Box %)
Liking (Mean 6-Point Scale)
Price/Value (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Uniqueness (Mean 5-Point Scale)
Believability (Top Box%)
Need Fulfillment (Top Two Box %)
Raw Score
Vantis Database Ranking
Bottom 20%
Below Ave.
Above Ave.
Top 20%
Ave
64%
23%
47%
4.5
3.9
4.1
37%
47%
Written Concept + Images
Video Concept
Raw Score
© 2011 Ipsos 28
Liberally apply Single Minded Proposition
The basic tenet works: structure your idea using insight, benefit, and
reason to believe
BUT… give people the information that they would have when buying – Non CPG products are often multi-faceted
– There is rarely only 1 reason to believe.
Steal a play from the Apple playbook: Show me, don’t tell me
Convey the user experience
More Flash, Video, Images, even PPT in research to simulate the offer
The offer doesn’t have to be fully baked or prototyped
Recap: What We Show the Respondent
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Predicting market potential for business initiatives, with 20+ years validated history
Research Practice #3:
The Need for Speed
Speed for speed’s sake, except in very special instances, is rarely
effective. This is not to say that speed is unimportant.
Jason Brown, President & CEO Ipsos Vantis
Innovation Strategy, Misconceptions (Oct 2010)
© 2011 Ipsos 30
Research has gotten faster and cheaper over the past 15
years
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Pre-Internet
Online
Online Rush
Time (Weeks)
Research Timeline
Setup Recruit & Fieldwork Analysis
Cuts here are detracting
from the true goal
© 2011 Ipsos 31
The #1 Problem Area for Innovation Research is….
The Concept
© 2011 Ipsos 32
Recognize there are several paths leading to success
High purchase intent as the primary hurdle misses 3 out of the 4 winners
Be willing to nurture and iterate on the ideas that show potential, but
aren’t ready to move ahead.
Get real: Show the consumer what they’ll really experience
Integrate the user experience where needed
Steal a play from Apple: Show me, don’t tell me
Make sure the way you communicate the product simulates what you
would do in market.
Spend enough time getting your concepts right
Your role: Help your company make the right investments!
Recap of Today’s Key Points
© 2011 Ipsos 33
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© 2011 Ipsos 34
Vantis Concept Testing Offers
Multi-Client Study Custom Study
© 2011 Ipsos 35
Innovation Misconception (articles 1 through 7) (2010) Jason Brown
Ipsos Vantis
http://www.innovationpov.com/2010/10/11/innovations-common-misconceptions-1/
Taking product development lessons from a robot (2011) Stephen Bohnet
Ipsos Vantis
http://www.innovationpov.com/2011/05/20/product-development-lessons-robot/
Why innovation funnels don’t work and why rockets do (2007) David Nichols
The BrandGym
http://thebrandgym.com/downloads/bgym%20Market%20Leader%20Innovation%20
Rocket%20article%20-%20Sept%2007.pdf
Using Research to Avoid the Pitfalls of Concept Development
(2011) Martha E. Guidry
The Rite Concept
Quirks: http://www.quirks.com/articles/2011/20110725-1.aspx
Related Articles
Stephen Bohnet, SVP & GM
O. 925.327.2032
M. 925.325.5969
stephen.bohnet@ipsos.com
@IpsosVantis
www.innovationpov.com
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