resource efficiency is key to resilient local governments

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Resource Efficiency is the Key toResilient Local Governments

Presentation for ICLEI

Dennis Meadows

Seville

21 March 2007

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Overview of my Comments• Humanity’s use of energy and resources has grown above

sustainable levels. • Although hopes and expectations are for continued growth, energy

and resource use will decline over the coming decades (we can choose the path, or it will be forced on us.)

• CO2 emissions and petroleum use are just two things that must be reduced (also food, ground water, trees, biodiversity, and others.)

• Responsibility for passing through the period of decline peacefully and equitably, while reducing the permanent damage to the ecosystem, will fall on local governments.

• Governments must solve global and universal problems using both adaptive strategies and preventive strategies - increased efficiency is essential for both of these.

• New technologies will be helpful, but they will not eliminate the need for ethical and cultural change.

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World Population

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Industrial Production

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Index of World Metals Use

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CO2 Concentration

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Wackernagel’s Indicator of Overshoot

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Overshoot and Decline

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food

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Sustainable Development

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food

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“Sind die Menschen noch zu retten?” Die Zeit, 16.11.06

If current trends of overfishing and pollution continue, .. all seafood faces collapse by 2048.

By the middle of the century … no fewer than 7 billion people in 60 countries may be faced with water scarcity.

Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. .. Fundamental changes are urgent….- more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries

(Ignoring climate change) “could create risks of major Disruption to economic and social activity… on a scaleSimilar to those associated with the great wars.”Stern Review October 2006

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Resources& EnergyPer Year

# of people ** Satisfaction

Person - Year

Resources & Energy

Satisfaction

Resource Efficiency

Policies

Demography Culture Technology

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Two Types of Problems

• Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation.

• Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved locally by local action: soil erosion, water pollution, oil depletion.

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Two Types of Policy

• It is too late to avoid some problems; for these adaptive strategies are required, for example climate change.

• Strong, new preventive policies imple-mented now can avoid some potential future problems, for example epidemics, nuclear proliferation

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Gap between Discovery and Use

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Global Oil Production will Peak Soon

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Energy Gap

• Today 13 TW, 2050 projected - 30• Projected shortfall is 17 - 20 TW• Building 1 1000 MW nuclear plant/day for

50 years would give 10 TW

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Easy Problems

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Actual Desired

Action #2

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Difficult Problems

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

Action #1Action #2

ActualDesired

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Difficult Problems Become Easy with Greater Time Horizon

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

Action #1

Action #2

ActualDesired

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The Goal

• Move your fist in a clock-wise direction

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Clock-wiseDirection

CounterClock-wiseDirection

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The Rules

• Always keep your thumb up• Do not stop the movement of your fist• Do not change the direction of your fist• Slowly move your fist from above your

head down to the level of belt