results used for ams meeting water fraction was not always in first column of rams input, so some of...

Results used for AMS meetingWater fraction was not always in first column of RAMS input, so some of the simulated changes were due to

unanticipated changes in open water extent, not urbanization.

2010 landcoverSimulation Observed

Need to fix problems with observed temperature record – known NCDC anomalies

2010 landcoverSimulation Observed

Note: Color scales are different

2010 / No Urban

2030 / 2010

New Resultsland cover fixed to have water

class in first column

2010 landcoverOld Sim. New Sim. Observed

New results are ~ 2.5 degrees warmer. Why?Better initial conditions for northern domain?

Note: Color scale is different for observed

2010 landcoverOld Sim. New Sim. Observed

New Ratios: 2030 / 2010

2030 / 2010 PrecipitationOld New

Changes are less heterogeneous, because fewer land cover changes were simulated (previous simulations would have assumed changes in open water class.)Seems reasonable.

2030 / 2010 Temperature Old versus New

Patterns less intense, also much less cooling than we saw previously.Seems reasonable

New Ratios: 2010 / No Urban

2010/no urban PrecipitationOld versus New

Same general character, although some reversal in signs. Heterogeneity about the same. Seems okay.

2010/no urban Temperature Old versus New

Patterns less intense, warming at Chicago much less, but more realistic continuous warming along southwest lake MI between Chicago and Milwaukee.