richard bent
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Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
The Economics of Policing:
The Scope and Complexity of
Modern Policing in Canada
Richard C. Bent, Dr. Paul Brantingham, Dr. Bryan Kinney,
Dr. Patricia Brantingham, et al PRIMERA CUMBRE INTERNACIONAL DE ANÁLISIS CRIMINAL CIENTÍFICO
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Purpose and Scope of Research
• Combining Two Complementary Research Pieces
▫ Complexity of Policing
▫ Economics of Policing: 30 Year Police Costing
• Assertions that policing complexity has increased
• Need to inform decision makers on current nature of police activities and how that has changed, and relative costs of policing
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Policing Complexity Study –
Purpose and Scope
• To determine whether it is feasible, at present, to describe and define “police work” in a way that points to the complexity of the work in which police forces engage.
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Policing Complexity Study – Purpose
and Scope - Continued
• If so, to determine whether it is feasible to identify measures of police work complexity that could be used to:
▫ Provide an index number that could be used to better understand the context of police statistics;
▫ Provide a measure that could be used to better forecast policing workloads;
▫ Provide a set of policing complexity measures that could be used as control variables in the use of some reasonable police performance measure, and;
▫ Provide better input to the front end of the British Columbia Criminal Justice System Simulation modeling project.
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Literature Review Summary Findings
• No examples were found that describe either the development or use of a policing complexity index.
• Very little describes policing complexity as a specific approach to performance measurement.
• The literature, however, suggests that elements of a full model of policing complexity might include: ▫ Context variables ▫ Police organizational and administrative
characteristics ▫ Workload character and volume issues
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Definition: The policing context
Policing operates in an often fluid or ever changing environment where a variety of forces act on police agencies which serve to influence, direct or otherwise impact on police service delivery
These include: • Government, Community
and internal priorities • Constitutional, statutory,
and case laws touching both substance and procedure
• Resource levels • Geography • Economy • Demographics • Technology
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Levels of Policing
Complexity
• Category 1: Strategic Policing and Strategic
Police Management
• Category 2: Technically complex or complicated policing and management
• Category 3. Regular policing and routine management
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Characteristics of
Complexity
• Characteristic A: Impact/Risk
• Characteristic B: Urgency
• Characteristic C: Priority
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Measures of the Complexity of Police
Work
• REACTIVE: Responses to call for service.
• PROACTIVE: Much contemporary police work is proactive.
• RESOURCES: Police activities are governed by the available resources.
• CONTEXT: All police work is conditioned by context.
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Potential Measures of
Policing Complexity
• Crime Metrics
• Workload Metrics
• Administrative Metrics
• Capacity Metrics
• Context Metrics
• Community Context Metrics
• Legal Context
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Findings • We were breaking new
ground! • Data review promising,
need further exploration on other indicators
• Range and variety of police work raises concerns about challenges of limiting the focus to a ‘court funnel’ only
• Range of issues identified with developing single index/single metric
• Stakeholder consultation and engagement needed in relation to:
• Purpose and use of PCI
▫ Is a PCI the best option
• Definition and typology • Appropriateness &
relevance of indicators • Adoption &
implementation issues
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Potential Areas for Future Study
• A study to assess whether and how the complexity of policing has increased.
• A study to assess whether the cost of policing has increased in real terms and if so, to examine why and how costs have increased.
• Specific examination of workflows in policing.
• A study developing appropriate performance measures for policing at the Provincial level
• Develop an index of context variables to aid understanding of performance variation.
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Potential Areas for Future Study
• A study examining the capacity and capability impact on different police occupational groups (managerial, specialist, general duty) of increased complexity in police work.
• A number of data studies are recommended to support further work on performance measures and resource analysis. Work will be needed to develop appropriate metrics and their data sources to support complexity analysis.
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Updated Economics of Policing (30
Year Costing) Study
• Why are the courts still at capacity if the crime rate is going down?
▫ Premier of British Columbia.
• Why are the costs of policing skyrocketing while reported crime has declined?
▫ Mayors and Councils, Federation of Canadian Municipalities, and the public.
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Findings: 30yr Study (2007) • Increases in demand for police
services that exceeded increases in police;
• A series of court decisions substantially increased the required number of steps and the amount of paperwork generated in handling cases;
• Increases in time required to prepare and handle cases administratively as new computer systems were introduced
• Time from initial call to referral of a case to Crown increased dramatically
▫ Break & Enter cases required 58% more time in 2003 than in 1983;
▫ Driving Under the Influence cases required 250% more time;
▫ Domestic assault cases required 964% more time.
15
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Other Examples
• Domestic Violence Investigations
▫ Public Policy Decision
▫ 1000% increase in time required to investigate
• Impaired Driving
▫ Inclusion of Administrative Sanctions
Increase of 250% investigative time
Court Days from 1 ¼ days to over 2 days
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Methodology – 2013/2014 Update
• Guided Focus Groups
▫ Operational Personnel
▫ Support Staff
• Direct Field Observation
• Mapping of Investigations/Police Activities
• Crime Trends
• Analyses of Policing Costs
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Context: Crime Rates; Police
Personnel, and; Costs - Updated
1. Reported Crime Rates in Canada have declined since mid 1990s.
2. Police personnel numbers – put into context
3. Expenditures on policing
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2776
10736
5608
221
1122
839
1891
6395
2516
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Cri
me
s kn
ow
n t
o P
olic
e p
er
10
0,0
0 p
op
ula
tio
n
Canadian Crime Rate Trends 1962-2012
UCR1 Aggregate Categories
Total Criminal Code Violent Offences Property Offences
Since their respective peaks in the early 1990's: Violent crime rates have declined 26% Property crimes rates have declined 61% Total Criminal Code rates have declined 48%
21
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Polic
e O
ffic
ers
Popula
tion in 1
,000s
Canadian Population and Police 1962-2011
Population Officers
22
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6770
11298
$-
$200.000.000
$400.000.000
$600.000.000
$800.000.000
$1.000.000.000
$1.200.000.000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Po
lic
ing
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re
s i
n C
on
sta
nt
Do
lla
rs
To
tal
Po
lic
e P
er
so
nn
el
- S
tati
sti
cs
Ca
na
da
Co
un
ts
Policing Expenditures (Constant Dollars) and Total Personnel
British Columbia 1986-2011
Total number of all personnel British Columbia Constant Dollars
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
196
219
63
196
419
65
196
619
67
196
819
69
197
019
71
197
219
73
197
419
75
197
619
77
197
819
79
198
019
81
198
219
83
198
419
85
198
619
87
198
819
89
199
019
91
199
219
93
199
419
95
199
619
97
199
819
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Trends in Canadian Crime and Police Personnel and Crime Count
1962=100
Recorded Crimes
Police Personnel
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20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BC
PR
IME
Ca
lls
fo
r S
er
vic
e
Large-Sized RCMP Detachments 2008-2012
Burnaby RCMP
Richmond RCMP
Coquitlam RCMP
Kelowna RCMP
North Vancouver RCMP
Langley RCMP
Upper Fraser Valley Regional RCMP
Nanaimo RCMP
Ridge Meadows RCMP
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2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,1
4,3
4,5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ra
tio
of
Ca
lls
fo
r S
er
vic
e t
o U
CR
To
tal
Vio
lati
on
Co
un
ts
Ratio of Calls for Service to Total Violations Large Detachment Group
2008-2012
Surrey CFS/UCR Ratio
Burnaby CFS/UCR Ratio
Richmond CFS/UCR Ratio
Coquitlam CFS/UCR Ratio
Kelowna CFS/UCR Ratio
North Vancouver CFS/UCR Ratio
Langley CFS/UCR Ratio
Nanaimo CFS/UCR Ratio
Ridge Meadows CFS/UCR Ratio
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Va
lue
Data Point
3 Year Moving Averages Proportion of All Municipal Expenditures for Policing
British Columbia 1983-2011
Actual
Forecast
Polinómica (Forecast)
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$746
$2.193
$149
$371
$768
$1.522
$0
$500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
Health, Police and School Board Expenditures Per Capita Canada 1986-2010
Health Expenditures per Capita Police Expenditures per capita School Board expenditures per capita
28
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pe
rc
en
tag
e o
f M
un
icip
ali
ty O
pe
ra
tin
g E
xp
en
se
s
Municipality Police Cost Trends Greater Vancouver Regional District
Anmore
Bowen Island
Burnaby
Coquitlam
Delta
Langley City
Langley Township
Lions Bay
Maple Ridge
New Westminster
North Vancouver City
North Vancouver District
Pitt Meadows
Port Coquitlam
Port Moody
Richmond
Surrey
Vancouver
West Vancouver
White Rock
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New Preliminary Findings
• Reinforced the findings of the 2007 study
• Changing public expectations
• Calls for Service – not just crime is key
• Increase in number and complexity of certain calls for service, e.g: Mental Health/Comorbid issues, missing persons, etc.
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New Preliminary Findings
• Increased need for support staff, e.g.: transcription, reduce paper work for sworn officers, increased data entry
• Training requirements increasing
• Increased computerisation and technology has benefits though increases inputs and investigative challenges. Legislation slow to respond to changing technology.
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Value of these studies
• Informs decision makers and policy makers with evidence based research
• Highlights that policing influenced to a great extent by external factors and context.
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Gracias
¿Preguntas?
Richard Bent
rcbent@sfu.ca
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