richard boyd--metaversial

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"Attack of the Algorithms: Serious Play with Netbots" Machine Algorithms in the form of automation are slowly and steadily inserting themselves everywhere. They are trading stocks, reading the news for us, educating our children, and are beginning to drive cars. If we are to avoid the dark side of the Singularity, and instead evolve towards a symbiotic, platonic relationship with machines; what Hans Moravec calls "Ourselves in more potent form", we need to learn to play nice with them. In this talk, Singularity Capital Partner Richard Boyd will reveal just how far down the rabbit hole we have gone, and give some hopeful direction for how we can evolve towards a more peaceful coexistence with the machines. Since the demise of Google Reader a whole host of automated bots have emerged to inform and entertain us. This session will describe the emerging bot landscape and what it means for the evolving human and machine relationship.

TRANSCRIPT

Attack of the

Algorithms

serious play with bots

Richard Boyd

Managing Partner

Singularity Capital

Serious Play August 21, 2013 Redmond, WA

Me@RichardBoyd.is

Twitter: Metaversial

Perspective

Digital Natives Rise Stereoscopic 3D

New Interfaces

My gaming street cred

Simulation

Mobility

Augmented Reality

Flow State Achieving Super-Proprioception

Flow (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990)

My talk last year at Serious Play about Flow State

and Digital Fluency

The Simulation Century

The 20th century was about recorded moving images,

This century is about Simulation

Core Concepts in this

talk

• This is the Simulation Century

• The central problem in an accelerating information

age is how to achieve the right balance between

humans and automation to optimize outcomes

• Those who attain fluency with automation and

digital tools will out-perform those who do not, and

will begin to appear Super Human.

• How do we teach digital fluency by allowing humans

and machines to play together?

Boyd, Richard. "SuperHuman Education", Getting Smart, (March, 2013)

http://gettingsmart.com/2013/03/superhuman-education/

Boyd, Richard and Rob Szczerba. "SuperHuman Healthcare", Intelligent Hospital Today,

(September, 2012) http://intelligenthospitaltoday.com/?p=721#comment-299

Boyd, Richard. "Nearer the Holodeck", Armed Forces Journal, (May, 2010)

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2010/05/4578938/

Algorithm Humble Origins

An algorithm is a specific set of instructions for carrying

out a procedure or solving a problem, usually with the

requirement that the procedure terminate at some

point. Specific algorithms sometimes also go by the

name method, procedure or technique. The word

"algorithm" is a distortion of al-Khwārizmī, a

Persian mathematician who wrote an influential treatise

about algebraic methods. The process of applying an

algorithm to an input to obtain an output is called

a computation.

Euclid's algorithm for calculating the greatest common divisor (g.c.d.) of two numbers a and b in locations named A and B.

al-Khwārizmī

The $264 Billion algorithm company

On September 15, 2011, beginning at 12:48:54.600, there was a time warp in the trading of Yahoo! (YHOO) stock. HFT has reached speeds faster than the speed-of-light, allowing time travel into the future. Up to 190 milliseconds into the future, or 0.19 fantaseconds is the record

so far. It all happened in just over one second of trading, the evidence buried under an avalanche of about 19,000 quotes and 3,000 individual trade executions. The facts of the matter are indisputable.

The Rise of the Machines

When Machines Read

Over $200 billion in market value

lost in less than 5 minutes

Fear Index Spikes!

“Your call may be monitored or recorded”

The Machines Take Over

Time Permitting… Robot Talk

Foxconn building a robot army

Of one million by 2013

Autonomy

(algorithms that drive)

In 2020 the U.S. will have 123

million high skill high pay jobs, but

only 50 million Americans qualified

to do them

The Hunt Library at NCSU January 2013

Anything that can be automated… will be. If your job can be done by automation, the most you can ever expect to be paid is the cost of renting the machine. Don’t compete against the machines. Learn to compete with them.

Accelerating Technology Disappearing Jobs

Prepare for Double Digit Unemployment

Prepare for Double Digit Dow Returns

Keep in Mind…

1800: 90% of US worked in Agriculture

1900: 41% of US worked in Agriculture

2000: 2%

Algorithms

that Mimic Nature Scheduling problem

Job-shop scheduling problem (JSP)[11]

Open-shop scheduling problem (OSP)[12][13]

Permutation flow shop problem (PFSP)[14]

Single machine total tardiness problem (SMTTP)[15]

Single machine total weighted tardiness problem (SMTWTP)[16][17][18]

Resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP)[19]

Group-shop scheduling problem (GSP)[20]

Single-machine total tardiness problem with sequence dependent setup times (SMTTPDST)[21]

Multistage Flowshop Scheduling Problem (MFSP) with sequence dependent setup/changeover times[22]

Vehicle routing problem

Capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP)[23][24][25]

Multi-depot vehicle routing problem (MDVRP)[26]

Period vehicle routing problem (PVRP)[27]

Split delivery vehicle routing problem (SDVRP)[28]

Stochastic vehicle routing problem (SVRP)[29]

Vehicle routing problem with pick-up and delivery (VRPPD)[30][31]

Vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW)[32][33][34]

Time Dependent Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (TDVRPTW)[35]

Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows and Multiple Service Workers (VRPTWMS)

Assignment problem

Quadratic assignment problem (QAP)[36]

Generalized assignment problem (GAP)[37][38]

Frequency assignment problem (FAP)[39]

Redundancy allocation problem (RAP)[40]

[edit]Set problem

Set covering problem(SCP)[41][42]

Set partition problem (SPP)[43]

Weight constrained graph tree partition problem (WCGTPP)[44]

Arc-weighted l-cardinality tree problem (AWlCTP)[45]

Multiple knapsack problem (MKP)[46]

Maximum independent set problem (MIS)[47]

Others

Classification[48]

Connection-oriented network routing[49]

Connectionless network routing[50][51]

Data mining [48][52][53][54]

Discounted cash flows in project scheduling[55]

Distributed Information Retrieval[56][57]

Grid Workflow Scheduling Problem[58]

Image processing[59][60]

Intelligent testing system[61]

System identification[62][63]

Protein Folding[64][65]

Power Electronic Circuit Design[66]

Ant Colony Optimization

Energy

“In the information-based economy, creative

ideas are the ultimate resource”

"...the first industrial revolution was the revolution

of coal and steam, the second was oil. This Third

Industrial Revolution is the internet of energy and

is not only about energy. It involves many key

sectors, from raw materials, to manufacturing,

services, construction, transport, Information

Technologies and even chemistry."

Smart Grid

Evolutionary Algorithms

•Polymorphism

•Self-Modification

•Genetic Algorithms

•Neural nets

Target Pal

“TargetPal on”

“Yes, Sergeant?”

“Target all potential enemy

actions within 100 meters”

“Targeted”

“Fire on all”

“Firing on 137 potential enemy

actions”

PKM: Personal Knowledge

Management (Google Reader died July 1!)

PRISMATIC

Algorithms for Education

Young Lady’s Illustrated

Primer

Suggested Reading

Before it’s too late

Digital Natives at home with

Automation

One digital native playing 36

characters at once. Talk about

multi-tasking! Does this teach

management of task saturation?

How do we train people to do this

better? Should we?.

Multi-boxing Where is the Serious Play Research?

Is it cheating?

What is the policy?

Do we ban it? (The way we

once banned calculators

and now ban smart

devices from some

schools?)

How do we design Serious

Games that teach

human/machine

cooperation?

Where is the research?

Where could this lead?

“Achieve the Perfect Balance Between Humans and Automation

To Optimize Outcomes” -Boyd

The 21st Century Imperative

“The future is already here, it is just unevenly distributed”

-William Gibson

Me@RichardBoyd.is

Twitter: Metaversial

www.DearDylan.com

2020 Vision

Factory of the Future

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