rising seas and solutions: mit club of southwest florida

RISING SEAS &

SOLUTIONS Paul H. Carr, PhD, BS MIT ‘57 AF Research Laboratory, Emeritus MIT Club of Southwest Florida March 16, 2017 Miami’s King High Tide Flooding

Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.

• Miami is spending $400,000,000 to build sea walls, but the sea is seeping under its limestone foundations.

• Increasing sea levels are encroaching on fresh water supplies.

“It’s as if the country was being attacked along every border, simultaneously,” said Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Florida and one of the world’s leading experts on rising seas. “It’s a slow, gradual attack, but it threatens the safety and security of the United States.”

As the problem worsens, experts are warning that national security is on the line. Naval bases, in particular, are threatened; they can hardly be moved away from the ocean, yet much of their land is at risk of disappearing within this century.

1. RISING SEAS• Sea levels are now rising 4 times

faster than in 1900. • Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft

by 2058. • 2015 & 2016: warmest years on

record.

2. SOLUTIONS: Nuclear Technology & Legislation.

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The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%)

SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMINGTHAN AIR TEMPERATURE

Carbon dioxide, presently 405 ppm, is increasing.

Oxygen is decreasing.

Increasing CO2 gas density in our atmospheric blanket is warming our planet via the Greenhouse effect.

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Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Sea level rise has increased to 12 in/century at present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924.

12 in./100 years.

7.5 in./100 years

3 in. /100 years

Increasing temperatures are melting Greenland’s glaciers.

GREENLAND IS MELTING: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing water & land. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-photography

Climate Scientist Hansen’s 1981 Predictions Came True.

What about 2016?

1981 2015

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.

1980 – 2017: CO2 increased 52 ppm. 14

This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University by Dr. Makiko Sato.Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen, Ruedy, Sato & Lo

2016 & 2015Warmest years On Record

“CO2 warming should emerge from the noise of natural variability (1981)” Hansen

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous

James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N. Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4

1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USACorrespondence to: James Hansen (jeh1@columbia.edu)Received: 11 June 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 July 2015 Revised: 17 February 2016 – Accepted: 18 February 2016 – Published: 22 March 2016

Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015Revised: 17 Feb 2016 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016

Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years.

Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al.

1 M TIPPING LEVEL

5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western Antarctica.

Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it would raise sea levels 10 ft.”

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TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015

Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate and nature’s ability to sequester carbon.

INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

THE “WICKED PROBLEM” OF CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US?

63nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age of Science, www.iras.org

June 24—July 1, 2017. Star Island off Portsmouth, NH.

• Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms.

• How can global warming be a catalyst for spiritual and societal transformation? 

Solomon H. Katz, Ph.D is a leading expert on the anthropology of food, U of Penn. He was editor-in-chief of the Encyclopedia of Food and Culture published by Scribner (2003). Prof Katz was Chair of the AAA Task Force on World Food Problems.

Barry Costa-Pierce, Ph.D, Chair of the Department of Marine Sciences, University of New England. Biddeford, Maine. Pioneer of the field of “Ecological Aquaculture” and helped develop the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s global protocols.

Can World Food Production Keep up with Population Growth in the Face of Climate Change & Sea Acidification?

Solar PVs on historic Star Island form the largest off-grid array in New England

S Sunrise on Star Island

SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND Learn more at www.iras.org

2. SOLUTIONS: ADAPTATON, MITIGATION,

NON-CO2 EMITTING SOLAR, WIND, & NUCLEAR

TECHNOLOGY

Do nothing different: then complain and blame.

The poor will suffer the most. Pope Francis “On Care for our Common Home.”

SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL WARMING from CO2

Electric Cars powered by

• Windmills• Solar Cells• Nuclear Fission Power Plants

Electric cars get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon.

U.S. solar industry is creating new jobs at nearly 20 times the rate of the overall economy.

2016 NISSANLEAF®As low as:$27,700*Net value after federal tax credit

106City MPGal107 mi range.

3 year old Leaf $10,000

®

Mitusbishi i

ELECTRIC CARS

2012 Chevy Volt: 90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator.

ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV• Over 200 mile range• $30,000 with Federal Rebate.

How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael Shellenberger

Solar energy is only available 26% of the time and wind 33%.

Nuclear is 24/7.

We are decommissioning nuclear reactors faster than the increase in wind and solar.

To make up for this net decrease, we are increasing our burning of fossil fuels, raising carbon dioxide emissions, and warming our planet.

Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewablesby Richard Martin. May 24, 2016 MIT Technology Review

Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will the rest of the world learn from its lesson?

At one point this month renewable energy sources briefly supplied close to 90 percent of the power on Germany’s electric grid.

At night when the wind is not blowing, they are burning more dirty coal to generate electricity because they are phasing out their nuclear power plants.

NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and two other top climate scientists have recently written an open letter (Scientific American, Dec 2015) They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem by burning current waste and using fuel more efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can make new power plants even cheaper than existing plants.” Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig.It would cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and take about half the time to build. Floating reactors wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard (NIMBY).

Bill Gates is funding new clean energy, but it's not solar or windhttp://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission-plant-terrapower-2016-4

Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot plant will be built in China. The economics, safety, waste, and all the key parameters are dramatically improved.

The traveling wave reactor converts depleted uranium, a byproduct of the nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.

THORIUM MOLTEN SALT (MSR) NUCLEAR REACTORS Demonstrated 1965-1970 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Consume nearly 100% of their fuel, compared with 3% for older reactors with solid uranium fuel.

• MSRs eliminate need for Yucca Mountain storage by consuming nuclear waste.

• Thorium fluoride molten fuel for MSRs is of no weapons value.

• Thorium fuel is more abundant and cheaper than uranium.

• MSRs require no expensive containment since they operate close to atmospheric pressure.

Safer Nuclear Power, at Half the PriceTransatomic is developing a new kind of molten-salt reactor designed to overcome the major barriers to nuclear power.by Kevin Bullis. March 12, 2013 Technology Review

Transatomic Power, a MIT spinoff, is developing a nuclear reactor that it estimates will cut the overall cost of a nuclear power plant in half. It’s an updated molten-salt reactor, a type that’s highly resistant to meltdowns.

A conventional nuclear power plant is cooled by water, which boils at a temperature far below the 2,000 °C at the core of a fuel pellet. Even after the reactor is shut down, it must be continuously cooled by pumping in water.

Using molten salt as the coolant solves these problems. The salt, which is mixed in with the fuel, has a boiling point significantly higher than the temperature of the fuel. The reactor has a built-in thermostat—if it starts to heat up, the salt expands, spreading out the fuel and slowing the reactions. That gives the mixture a chance to cool off. “It’s walk-away safe,” says Dewan, the company’s chief science officer. “If you lose electricity, even if there are no operators on site to pull levers, it will coast to a stop.”

The company’s biggest challenge might come from China, which is investing $350 million over five years to develop molten-salt reactors of its own. It plans to build a two-megawatt test reactor by 2020.

Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017By James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-Energy-Boom-In-2017.html

When I asked MIT Prof of Nuclear Science & Engineering, Ian Hutchison about this he replied, “The Republicans are less scared of nuclear energy than the Democrats.”

MIT is presently designing tethered off-shore nuclear reactors

10/9/15

www.CitizensClimateLobby.org

- Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. (RNCFD)

-Dividend would be returned to everyone. $2000 / family.

-Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.

1. RISING SEAS• Sea levels are now rising 4 times

faster than in 1900. • Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft

by 2058. • 2016 & 2015: warmest years on

record.

2. SOLUTIONS: Nuclear Technology & Legislation.

.  

-

2. SOLUTIONS: ADAPTATON, MITIGATION,

NON-CO2 EMITTING SOLAR, WIND, & NUCLEAR

TECHNOLOGY

Do nothing different: then complain and blame.

The poor will suffer the most. Pope Francis “On Care for our Common Home.”