risk and vulnerability assessment in the climate change adaptation process

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in the Climate Change Adaptation Process

Jeff ZukiwskyZumundo Consultants

Fernie, Canada

March 25, 2010

2

Agenda

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Topic Time

4 Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

40 min

Summary of Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 10 minCommunity updates 10 min

Brainstorming discussion: How to proceed with risk and vulnerability assessment

30 min

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Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Risk/ VulnerabilityAssessment

• Develop strategies to address key risks/ vulnerabilities

• Implement

• Monitor

• Develop a team

• Create a plan

• Engage and inform stakeholders

• Understand potential future climate scenarios

• Identify planning areas/ sectors affected by climate change

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Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

1. Risk-based Approach

2. Vulnerability Assessment

3. Hybrid – Combined RA/VA Approach

4. Kimberley ‘working group’ approach

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Grounded in ISO/CSA Risk Management standards

Guidebooks for Alberta, Ontario, Caribbean, Arctic, and BC Municipalities

Adopted and modified by Australia Federal Gov. (workshop approach)

Tested in several CCA Plans: Chicago, IL Toronto, ON Halifax Regional Municipality, NS Micronesia and The Cook Islands

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

3 Step Risk Assessment Process1. Risk Identification

(Preliminary Analysis)2. Risk Estimation3. Risk Evaluation

From: ISO/CSA Risk Management standards

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 1: Risk Identification: Identify ‘planning areas” within the

communit

Develop ‘risk scenarios’ for each planning area (impact mapping or linear flows)

Consider:• Include a verb in every scenario• Aim for a cause effect statement

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 2: Risk Estimation Estimate probability and consequence for each

‘risk’ identified in step 1

Public safety Environment Community

and lifestyleLocal

economy and growth

Public Administration

Critical Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives

Widespread loss of environmental amenity/ irreversible.

Major

Moderate

Minor

Insignificant

Sample Consequence Scale

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 2: Risk Estimation Sample Consequence Scale

Social Factors Economic Factors Environmental Factors

Health and

safety

Displacement

Loss of Livelihood

Property damage

Financial impact

Community impact

Air Water Land

Very low

Low

Moderate

Major

Very Severe

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 2: Risk Estimation Sample Likelihood / Probability Scale

Single Events Recurring Events

Remote Very unlikely, improbable , probability small, less than 10%

Not very likely to occur during the next 30 years

Unlikely Less likely than not, but still appreciable – probability 10-40%

May arise once in 10-30 years

Possible About as likely as not – probability 40 to 60% May arise once in 10 years

Likely Likely, probable – probability 60 to 90%

May arise about once per year

Almost certain Highly probable, virtually certain – probability greater than 90%

Could occur several times per year

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 3: Risk Evaluation Assemble risk ratings (probability x

consequence) on a risk matrix or risk table

Evaluate costs and benefits of each risk

Manually adjust any risks found to have been over or under-rated

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Consequence

High

Low

Unlikely Likely

Probability

Negligible- No action required

Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable

Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels

High - High priority control measures required

Extreme - Immediate controls required

Step 3: Risk Evaluation Sample Risk Evaluation Matrix

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The Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Step 3: Risk Evaluation Sample Risk

Evaluation Table

Risk Level Risk

Critical

High

Moderate

Minor

Insignificant

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The Risk-Based “Workshop Approach”

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

From: Government of Australia (2008)

1.Identify threats and opportunities

2.Assess threats and opportunities

3.Evaluate threats and opportunities

1. Define scope2. Identify

stakeholders3. Develop climate

scenarios4. Agree on

evaluation frameworks

5. Define ‘key elements’

Before Workshop

Risk Assessment Workshop

After Workshop

1. Treated immediately without further analysis

2. Set aside without further action for the time being

3. Requires more detailed analysis

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The Vulnerability Assessment Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Initiated by the IPCC

Recommended by: NRCAN C-CIARN

Used primarily in: Academic journals Developing countries

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Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

IPCC 4AR: 7 criteria to identify ‘Key Vulnerabilities’

1. Magnitude2. Timing3. Persistence and Reversibility4. Likelihood5. Potential for adaptation6. Distribution7. Importance of the system

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Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

NRCAN Model

Steps 2 – 4 are the “VA”1. Assess current situation2. Estimate future conditions3. Estimate future vulnerability

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Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability influenced by: Adaptive capacity:

Ability to moderate damages and cope with consequences

Coping Ranges: The range of circumstances within which

significnt impacts do not occur Critical Thresholds

Upper and lower boundaries of coping range

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Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Ford & Smit (2004) V = f (E, A)

Vulnerability is a function of exposure and adaptive capacity

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Hybrid Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

CIG Guidebook Vulnerability Assessment followed by

Risk Assessment

Process Step Purpose

Vulnerability Assessment

• Find weak spots• Figure out which risks can be adapted to with

available capacity, and which require actions outside available capacity

Risk Assessment• Figure out the highest risks needing action• What to pay attention to first

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Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability = sensitivity x adaptive capacity

Planning

Area

Current Stress/ Impact

Future Stress with

climate change

Sensitivity analysis

(high, medium,

low)

Adaptive Capacity

(high, medium

low)

Vulnerability

(function of sensitivity

and AC)

Water Managing summer drought

Lower snowpack and warmer drier summers = more drought

High – drought conditions likely to worsen, summer demand exceeds supply

Low- cannot influence snowpack, limited options to expand water supply

High

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Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Risk Assessment Risk = Consequence x Probability

Current Stress/ Impact

Future Stress with

climate change

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

Vulnerability

Consequence

(low, medium,

high)

Probability

(low, medium,

high, unknown)

Risk

(high, medium, low)

Managing summer drought

Lower snowpack and warmer drier summers = more drought

High Low High High – public safety threat, loss of confidence

High – alreadya concernand warmer,drier conditionsexpected.

High

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Hybrid Approach – CIG Guidebook

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

End Result: Priority planning areas based on risk and

vulnerability assessment

Low Vulnerability

High Vulnerability

High Risk May be priority planning areas

Should be priority planning

areas

Low RiskAre unlikely to

be priority planning areas

May be priority planning areas

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Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Same as CIG, but substituted consequence for vulnerability in the risk assessment process

“Workshop’ approach

Flooding Risks Sensitivity(L, M, H)

Adaptive Capacity(L, M, H)

Vulnerability(VL,L,M,H,VH)

Flooding of buildings or lands High Low Very HighDamage to bridge integrity High Low Very High

Storm water management stress Moderate High Low

Death/ injury to river recreation users Low Moderate Low

Pumphouse floods and compromises water supply High Moderate High

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Hybrid Approach- District of Elkford

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability

Very high  Wildfire

enters town

High Evacuation

Mine closure

Damage to Infrastructure

Road highway closure

Smoke alert

ModerateLawsuit

Loss of life

Low  

Backcountry forest

closure

Very Low

    Unlikely to occur

May occur once

Likely to occur at

least once

Likely to occur

several times

Occurs frequently

Probability (20 year planning period)

Sample: Wildfire Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Summary

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Kimberley “Working Group” Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Used climate science, local observations, and input from workshops and community survey to identify priority issues: Water and Forests Municipal Infrastructure Tourism

Multi-stakeholder working groups formed to conduct vulnerability assessment and identify adaptive actions for each issue

1st meeting: Identify and screen vulnerabilities:

Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

2nd Meeting Outline adaptation actions for

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What about opportunities?

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Opportunity(e.g. increased revenue for tourism businesses)

Impact(e.g. prolonged outdoor recreation and summer tourism)

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Opportunity Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Risks

Probability

V. High

High

Mod

Low

V. Low

V. Low Low Mod High V.

High

Consequence

Adopted from Hilson (2002)

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Opportunity Assessment

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Risks Opportunities

Probability

V. High

V. High

Probability

High High

Mod Mod

Low Low

V. Low

V. Low

V. Low Low Mod High V.

HighV.

High High Mod Low V. Low

Consequence

Adopted from Hilson (2002)

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Summary

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Strengths WeaknessRisk-based Approach

• Linear, step by step approach

• Supported by International Standards

• Consistent methodology and terminology

• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)

• Not grounded in climate change

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Summary

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Strengths WeaknessRisk-based Approach

• Linear, step by step approach

• Supported by International Standards

• Consistent methodology and terminology

• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)

• Not grounded in climate change

Vulnerability Assessment

• Climate change specific• Incorporates non-climatic

future scenarios

• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical

thresholds are difficult to determine

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Summary

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Strengths WeaknessRisk-based Approach

• Linear, step by step approach

• Supported by International Standards

• Consistent methodology and terminology

• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)

• Not grounded in climate change

Vulnerability Assessment

• Climate change specific• Includes non-climatic

future scenarios

• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical

thresholds are difficult to determine

Hybrid – combined RA/VA

• Comprehensive• Step by step guide

• Longer process, more resources required

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Summary

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Strengths WeaknessRisk-based Approach

• Linear, step by step approach

• Supported by International Standards

• Consistent methodology and terminology

• Complex and subjective assessment (likelihood)

• Not grounded in climate change

Vulnerability Assessment

• Climate change specific• Includes non-climatic

future scenarios

• Non-linear• Coping ranges and critical

thresholds are difficult to determine

Hybrid – combined RA/VA

• Comprehensive• Step by step guide

• Longer process, more resources required

Kimberley ‘working group approach’

• Cost effective• Builds community

support for process• Few technical experts

needed

• No standardized process• Subjective VA process

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Selecting a RA/VA Approach

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

Which process struck a cord with you?

Which process seems most appropriate for your community?

What is your capacity/ resource availability?

Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

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Selected References• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved

November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November

22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations.

University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp • Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website:

www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–

240.• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11,

2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British

Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For

Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf

• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp

• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.

• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.