robert david steele nisa 15 nov 02
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Information Peacekeeping & The Future of Intelligence
The United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes
Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>
NISA 15 Nov 02
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Abstract #1: Seven Tribes
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
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Abstract #2: ISO Standards
Generic to All Tribes• Open Source Collection
• Multi-media processing
• Analytic toolkits
• Analytic tradecraft
• Operations security
• Defensive counterintelligence
• Leadership skills
• Training & culture skills
Unique to Some Tribes• National clandestine & covert
collection, offensive CI
• Military targeting, mobility
• Police arrest & interrogation
• Business fiscal accountability
• Media attention-getting skills
• NGO humanitarian values
• Religious faith-based insights
• Ethnic blood-based insights
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Abstract #3: Multi-Lateral Sharing
80% of Global Intelligence Will Be Via:
• Shared Collection--Open, Human, Technical
• Shared Processing--Data Entry, Translation
• Shared Analysis--Multi-cultural, indigenous
20% of National Intelligence Will Be Via:
• Unilateral or bi-lateral secret collection
• Unilateral or bi-lateral secret analysis
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Abstract #4: Public Intelligence
• Intelligence as mixed public-private good• Must be taught in all schools at all levels• Public intelligence will drive public policy• Greatest impact will be on total national
budgets--allocations among the instruments of national power (less on military, more on diplomacy, intelligence, public health, etc.)
• Art of the long view will re-emerge.
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Abstract #5: UNODIN & IP
• Will take 10-25 years• UN DPI is a one-way
road with 77 lanes• UN in denial on all
aspects of intelligence• Goals: to change how
Nations spend money and how UN does business
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State of the Tribes Today
0102030405060708090
100Objective
National
Military
Business
Academic
NGO-Media
Religious
• National 50%• Military 40%• Business 30%• Academic 30%• Law Enforcement 20%• NGO-Media 20%• Religious 20%
We have much to do.
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TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer
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New Measures of Merit
• Open Source Collection• Multi-Media Processing• Analytic Toolkits• Analytic Tradecraft• Defensive Security• Leadership• Training• Culture
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Sharing the Burden• Open Source Collection,
Translation, Digitization• Distributed Processing• LINUX/OS as new
standard for all tribes• XML Geo and open API as
mandated standards• Generic analyst toolkit• Share leaders, training• Create global culture
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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
Processing Desktop:
Generic Analytic Functionalities
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New Paradigm (1 of 2)
OLD• Policy Over Intelligence• Unilateral• Mostly Secret• Technical Emphasis• Collection Emphasis• One-language filter• Mistakes hidden• Short-term thinking
NEW• Intelligence Over Policy• Multilateral• Mostly Public• Human Emphasis• Analysis Emphasis• Multi-lingual filters• Mistakes acknowledged• Long-term thinking
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New Paradigm (2 of 2)
NATIONAL• One leader, 3 deputies
– Secret Collection
– Open Collection
– All-Source Analysis
• Unite the tribes• Pool resources• Serve the people
GLOBAL• Multi-lateral Councils
– Collection
– Processing
– Analysis
• Unite the tribes• Regional Centers• Serve the people
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Regional Intelligence Center
O SINTH U MINT
IM INTSIG INT
D ep uty fo r Co lle ctionAu stra lia
D igitizationTran slation
V isua liza tionAn alytic Su p po rt
D e pu ty for Pro ce ssingM a laysia
W a rn ingEstima tiveC ou n tries
Issu es
D e pu ty for An a lysisC hina
C hie f o f Ce nterS ing a po re
Deputy for CounterintelligenceJapan
Deputy for Covert ActionThailand
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Change in Time Focus
• 7th Generation Thinking– Public Health
• Bacteria, Preventive Medicine• Cultures of Violence• Education & Mental Health
– Water– Food– Energy
• Accountability of Leaders Over the Longer Term
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Information Peacekeeping #1Changing What We Spend Money On
• Public intelligence can change public spending priorities
• Less on military, more on everything else
• Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace0 500
USA
Europe
Russia
Other
s
Health
Culture
Education
Assistance
Intelligence
Diplomacy
Military
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Information Peacekeeping #2Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention
– More Peacekeeping
– More Education
– More Long-Term Aid
– Less Corruption
– Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.“Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.
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Information Peacekeeping #3Changing Who Does the Thinking
® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data withpermission © 2002 A. Jongman
• Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values
• Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action
• Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.
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Information Peacekeeping #4Changing Who Makes a Difference & How
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
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Information Peacekeeping #5Changing How the World Views Intelligence
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OPGVPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
DistanceLearning
VirtualLibrary
SharedCalendar
VirtualBudget
Shared24/7 Plot
SharedRolodex
Creating the World Brain:Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
• Weekly report• Distance learning• Virtual library• Expert Forum• Shared directory• Shared calendar• Shared budget• Shared “plot” (map)
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Information Peacekeeping #6Changing the Strategic Focus
• Connectivity everywhere• Content is digitized• Coordination of
standards and investments
• C4 Security across all seven tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets
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Conclusion
• The new craft of intelligence is the best hope for world peace through a world brain.
• A United Nations Open Decision Information Network (UNODIN) is a possibility.
• We work for the public. Only by educating the public, creating Smart Nations, can secret and open intelligence endeavors hope to succeed.
• Millions more will die before we get it right.• There is no time to waste--we must start now.
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Headlines, Books, & Conferences
UN INTELLIGENCE: Does Not Exist, Will Not Exist, Until Secretary General Makes Intelligence the Second Half of the Planned Reform of the Department of Public Information
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