russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs 2017 - alpha … · russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs...

Russian pharmaceutical market:

2016 vs 2017

Anna Ermolaeva AlphaRM General Manager

Russian pharmaceutical market volume ‘16 ~1,13 (trln, RUB)* & ~5,3 (bln, units) Including Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others ~1,4 trln, RUB and 7,7 billion, units

*Excluding Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

958 1059 1127

307 336 351 651 723 776

2014 2015 2016

billion, RUB

25,1

17,4 16,8

8,0 5,5 5,2 17,1 11,9 11,6

2014 2015 2016

billion, USD

5,51 5,29 5,26

1,08 1,05 1,02 4,43 4,24 4,24

2014 2015 2016

billion, units

18,9 15,6 15,2

6,1 5 4,7 12,8 10,7 10,4

2014 2015 2016

billion, EUR

Total market State segment Retail segment

69% 80%

69% 69%

+11% +7% -4% -1%

-30% -3%

-17% -3%

Consumer price

68,8 % RETAIL

4,7 %

13,0 %

13,5 %

State budget

Reimbursement

Clinical segment

Target segment

State procurement

Out-of-pocket money

68% 15%

13% 4% Retail

Clinical segment

Reimbursement

Target segment

2015

*Excluding Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Russian Pharmaceutical Market Structure 2016, national currency, consumer price

Retail Pharmaceutical Market Started Growing In The Second Half of ‘16

2016/2015:

+7%

0%

-2%

-2%

+35% +15% +16% +23%

+8% 0% +3% -3%

-9% -2% -5% +9%

Un

its

0%

+25% +7% +13% +19%

-2% -12% -9% -16% -7% -7% -3%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EUR

2015 г. 2016 г.

+28% +19% +15% +56%

+8% -18%

-31% -26% -15% -12% -19%

-3%

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data (Sell-out)

+16% +17% +27% +9% -21% -16%

-27% -25% -14% -11% -9%

USD

+51%

RU

B

Retail pharmaceutical market growth 2016 vs 2015 (%)

34%

22% 10%

17%

17% Local chains

Small local chains

Regional chains

Federal chains

Independent pharmacies

There are more than 60 K pharmacies in Russia

2016г. - 60,2 K Pharmacies + 4 %

Segmentation by revenue (sell-out), (%) RUB:

Segmentation by No. of pharmacies:

2015г. - 57,7 K Pharmacies

30%

21% 13%

18%

18%

30%

13% 20%

24%

13%

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

35%

14% 15%

23%

13%

Dynamics of aggregate market shares among largest retailers Share of biggest players (by sales value, included in the TOP 100 pharmacy chains) is more than 50% of the retail commercial market. Consolidation continues...

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

8,5

19

,2

49

63

,6

5,6

14

,1

34

,3

47

,8

9,8

21

,7

50

,6

64

,0 6

,3

15

,6

35

,2

47

,9

12,1

26,0

54,3

66,2

9,0

17,5

37,5

50,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

ТОР3 ТОР10 ТОР100 ТОР300 ТОР3 ТОР10 ТОР100 ТОР300

Share, RUR. Share, pharmacies

2014 2015 2016

Share, RUB

TОР-20 Manufactures in the Retail Segment ’16 (sell-out)

Corporation Share

( %, RUB)

Pharmstandart 5,48%

Sanofi 4,32%

Novartis 4,04%

Bayer 3,92%

Servier 3,25%

GSK 3,21%

Gedeon Richter 2,91%

STADA 2,83%

Berlin-Chemie 2,81%

Teva 2,69%

Abbott 2,53%

Johnson & Johnson 2,50%

Takeda 2,21%

KRKA 2,06%

Astellas 1,92%

Valenta 1,73%

Allergan 1,69%

Dr. Reddy's 1,68%

Pfizer 1,49%

Boehringer Ingelheim 1,37%

55%

Growth 2016/2015, RUB

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Boehringer Ingelheim

Pfizer

Dr. Reddy's

Allergan

Valenta

Astellas

KRKA

Takeda

Johnson & Johnson

Abbott

Teva

Berlin-Chemie

STADA

Gedeon Richter

GSK

Servier

Bayer

Novartis

Sanofi

Pharmstandart

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Russian Pharmaceutical Retail Market includes > 8 000 brands

ТОР10 Brands Sales Growth

(RUB) Share (RUB)

Variation 2016 vs.2015

Cardiomagnyl 18,93% 0,82% +4

Kagocel 0,11% 0,77% 0

Theraflu 14,86% 0,74% +3

Nurofen 5,53% 0,73% 0

Actovegin 1,60% 0,73% -2

Ingavirin 46,18% 0,72% +4

Essentiale N -16,11% 0,70% -6

Concor 9,23% 0,70% -1

Pentalgin 19,96% 0,69% 0

Detralex 35,28% 0,63% +6

Number of brands in the Russian market grew in 2016 by 5% to exceed 8 000 items

~ 600 Brands account about 80% of sales

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Evalar - FS market leader

Value of FS market ‘16 reached 43 bln. RUB, other product categories (MD, сosmetics and others) – 213 bln. RUB

TOP10 FS MANUFACTURERS

Value (bln, RUB) Share (RUB) Growth, ‘16/’15,

(%)

Evalar 7,97 18,29% 13,33%

Pharmstandart 2,40 5,50% 38,53%

Pharmamed 2,20 5,05% -7,12%

Valeant 1,96 3,84% -3,46%

VIS 1,65 3,77% -50,60%

Queisser 1,45 3,32% 5,44%

Solgar 1,44 3,31% 37,96%

Dr Reddy’s 1,41 3,24% 18,58%

Obnovlenie 0,92 2,11% 50,87%

Polpharma 0,86 1,98% 13,33%

billion, RUB.

196 213

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016

MD+

FS

17%

165 196 213

41 45 43

206 241 256 6%

261

355

460

229

323

413

2014 г. 2015 г. 2016 г.

Maximum Purchase Price, bln RUR. Final Purchase Price, bln RUR.

Structure of State Purchases (by auction date)

37,8

26,8

24,6

10,8

0,04

Clinical segment

Reimbursment

Rest (under 223-FL)

Target Segment

State Pharmacies (under 44-FL)

28,2 23,6 16,3 9,4 22,6

Shared by funding source (%)

Institutional Budget Regional Budget Federal Budget

Fund of OMI Other Sources

75,2 8,6 7,3 4,6 3,9

0,4 Shared by supplier selection type (%)

e-Auction RFP

Single-Source Contract Open Auction

Quote Request Other

Shared by purchase type (%)

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

-9%

-12%

-10%

+40% +28%

ТОР10 Suppliers of MS Tender Purchase (RUB, in bidding winner price) ‘16

Supplier Share (%) Value, RUB

(mln)

1 R-Pharm 8,72 36 077

2 Pharmstandart 6,48 26 825

3 Pharmimex 3,78 15 621

4 Lancet 2,70 11 184

5 Pharmastor 2,45 10 133

6 Protek 2,19 9 079

7 Euroservice 1,95 8 062

8 Katren 1,91 7 901

9 Medipal-Onco 1,81 7 482

10 Irvin-2 1,77 7 312

ТОР10 33,76 139 679

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Clinical Segment

Clinical Segment Dynamics, ‘14-’16

150,77 151,76 155,13

2014 2015 2016

Bln. RUB

+2% +1%

858,08 814,33

772,50

2014 2015 2016

Mln. Units

-5% -5%

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Recipients share (%) by type of medical institution in clinical segment ’16

2,0 0,3

88,0

4,1 5,6

RUB (%)

Out-patient clinics

Out-patient clinics (institutional)

Hospitals

2,9 0,2

88,5

3,7 4,7

Units (%)

Hospitals (institutional)

Other purchases (under 223-FL)

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Rate

Variatio

n

Manufacturer Value (bln,

RUB)

Volume (mln,

units)

Share (%,

RUB)

Growth,

‘16/’15,

(%)

1 8 Biocad 5,26 0,82 3,34 78

2 - Roche 4,45 1,13 2,87 -22

3 - Sanofi 4,39 4,69 2,83 -17

4 3 Pfizer 3,43 1,82 2,22 5

5 -2 AstraZeneca 3,21 1,44 2,07 -15

6 1 Bayer 2,93 1,39 1,89 -6

7 2 Abbott 2,67 2,25 1,72 10

8 2 MSD 2,67 0,57 1,72 7

9 -2 Novartis 2,66 0,62 1,58 -18

10 3 Johnson & Johnson 2,27 0,73 1,47 12

TOP10 33,94 15,46 21,71

TOP 10 Clinical Segment Manufactures ‘16

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Dynamics of reimbursement segment, ’14 -’16

117,6

139,1 144,2

44

,3

44

,1

39

,1

32

,4

40

,7

45

,0

40

,9

54

,3

60

,2

2014 2015 2016

RUB, (bln)

Overall Reimbursement High Cost Nosologies

108,2

128,0 129,4

4,3

3,0

2,1

52

,3

79

,3

75

,0

51

,6

45

,7

52

,3

2014 2015 2016

Units, (mln)

Federal Reimbursement Regional Reimbursment

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

+3,7% +18,2%

+1% +18,3%

Dynamics of Reimbursement Share (%) by localization

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 г. 2016 г.

Локальные

Импортные

Local

Import

High cost nosologies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 г. 2016 г.

Regional Reimbursement

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 г. 2016 г.

Federal Reimbursement

31,7 64,6

15,4 25,3

28,3 37,2

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

RUB

ТОР10 Manufacturers in Reimbursement Segment ‘16 (RUB) R

ate

Var

iati

on

Manufacturer

Value (bln,

RUB)

Volume

(mln, units)

Share

(%)

Growth

‘16/’15, (%)

1 9 Nativa 10,23 1,67 7,09 144

2 - Celgene 9,86 0,03 6,84 11

3 1 Sanofi 7,72 4,04 5,35 11

4 -1 Biocad 7,58 0,47 5,26 8

5 - 4 Roche 6,72 0,68 4,66 -43

6 - Novo Nordisk 6,08 3,46 4,22 14

7 - AstraZeneca 5,52 1,84 3,82 5

8 - 3 Novartis 5,36 1,69 3,72 -11

9 5 Johnson & Johnson 5,24 0,51 3,63 64

10 - 2 Alexion 4,27 0,01 2,96 -17

ТОР10 68,58 14,4 47,55

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

ТОР10 Brands in Reimbursement Segment ‘16 R

ate

Var

iati

on

Brand Manufacturer

Value (bln,

RUB)

Volume

(mln,

units)

Share (%) Growth

(%)

1 - Revlimid Celgene 9,42 0,02 6,53 7

2 2 Lantus Sanofi 4,49 1,36 3,11 -

3 - Soliris Alexion 4,27 0,01 2,96 -17

4 new Aksoglatitan FS Nativa 3,92 0,19 2,72 new

5 1 Boramilan Nativa 3,25 0,10 2,25 -

6 - 4 Acellbija Biocad 2,71 0,66 1,88 -52

7 5 Symbicort AstraZeneca 2,04 1,06 1,41 -

8 6 Levemir Novo Nordisk 2,01 0,82 1,39 30

9 - Remicade MSD 1,84 0,04 1,28 -18

10 7 Novorapid Novo Nordisk 1,83 1,07 1,26 26

ТОР10 35,78 5,33 24,79

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Dynamics of Target Segment ‘14-’16

38,6

46,1 52,4

0,6 0,4 0,6 1,5 0,9 1,4

11,4 8,2 7,7

5,8

8,6 11,6

19,5

27,7 31,1

2014 2015 2016

RUB, (bln.)

Overall Segment

Regional Dedicated Programmes

Federal Dedicated Programmes

+15% +19%

107,1 103,2 113,7

2,2 1,4 2,1

23,9

9,6 11,0

51,5 56,1 48,1

9,1 11,0 11,1

20,4 25,0

41,4

2014 2015 2016

Units (mln.)

Maternity Certificate

Federal Penal Correction Service

Other

+10%

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

-4%

ТОР10 Manufactures in Target Segment ‘16

Rate

Variatio

n

Manufacturer Value (bln,

RUB)

Volume

(mln,

units)

Share

(%)

Growth (%)

1 - AbbVie 6,74 0,83 12,74 30

2 1 Pharmasyntez 4,61 4,75 8,71 40

3 -1 Pfizer 4,56 3,60 8,62 -5

4 3 Microgen 2,96 10,54 5,31 58

5 2 Bristol-Myers Squibb 2,33 0,32 4,33 16

6 -1 MSD 2,21 0,22 4,17 -3

7 -1 Johnson & Johnson 2,03 0,20 3,84 -9

8 4 Petrovax 1,96 8,33 3,71 169

9 - ViiV 1,42 0,36 2,68 -6

10 17 Biocad 0,89 0,46 1,68 250

ТОР10 29,71 29,61 55,79

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

ТОР10 Brand in Target Segment ‘16 Rate V

ariation

Brand Manufacturer Value

(bln, RUB)

Volume

(mln,

units)

Share

(%)

Growth

(%)

1 - Kaletra AbbVie 5,79 0,80 10,94 15

2 - Prevenar Pfizer 4,27 3,48 8,07 -6

3 - Isentress MSD 2,00 0,15 3,78 -

4 7 Grippol Petrovax Pharm 1,94 8,27 3,67 174

5 - Sovigripp Microgen 1,79 7,94 3,38 64

6 -2 Reyataz Bristol-Myers Squibb 1,77 0,23 3,33 4

7 3 Intelence Johnson & Johnson 1,42 0,13 2,68 64

8 - Kemeruvir Pharmasyntez 1,32 0,07 2,49 31

9 -2 Olitid Pharmasyntez 0,80 0,28 1,51 -20

10 -2 Kivexa ViiV 0,68 0,15 1,29 -27

ТОР10 21,78 21,5 41,14

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

Pharmaceutical Market. Key Trends ‘17

Retail Consolidation ‘16/’15: Federal &

Regional Pharmacy Chains share + 8%

Shift of State Pharmacy Chains to 44-FL Purchase 6 K Pharmaсies

Retention of Health Care Financing ‘17/‘16: +5,9%

«Reference price» System

New Pharmacy sales channel — remote pharmaceuticals sales

QR-coding – Pilot Project

Pharmaceutical market growth, 2015’01 – 2017’03

45

55

65

75

85

Billion, RUB

Retail segment

10

30

50

Billion, RUB 2015 2016 2017

State segment

+16% +13% +11%

-3% 32%

-28%

Q1’17/ Q1’16

+14%

MAT 03’16/ MAT 03’17

+13%

Q1’17/ Q1’16

-3%

MAT 03’16/ MAT 03’17

-3%

Q1’16 vs Q1’17 total market growth is 10% (RUB), MAT 03’16 vs MAT 03’17 is 10%

2017 - 10% Pharmaceutical Market Growth in RUB

2014 2015 2016 2017*

State segment Retail segment

720 775 875

Billion, RUB

650

Retail segment is expected to grow by more than 12%, Pharmaceutical market growth will significantly exceed official inflation rate

1 060 1 125

7% 960 11%

10% 1 240

According to AlphaRM’s analytical data

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