scaling up carbon fiber - spe automotive · 2015-08-28 · carbon-fiber reclaimer and composite...
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Scaling Up Carbon Fiber: Roadmap to Automotive Adoption
Anthony Schiavo
Research Associate
September 2015
About Lux Research
Helps clients find new business opportunities from emerging technologies in physical and life sciences
Offers ongoing technology and market intelligence, as well as market data and consulting services
Over 250 clients on six continents – multinational corporations, investors, governments, and SMEs
Global reach, with offices in Boston, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, and Tokyo
Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis to support strategic decisions
More at www.luxresearchinc.com
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Coverage areas
Advanced Materials
Agro Innovation
Alternative Fuels
Autonomous Systems 2.0
Bio-based Materials & Chemicals
BioElectronics
Energy Electronics
Energy Storage
Exploration and Production
Food and Nutrition
Intelligent Buildings
Solar
Sustainable Building Materials
Water
Wearable and Flexible Electronics
Sensors
Connected Objects and Platforms
Big Data
Future Computing Platforms
Agenda
Lay of the land and market updates
Key developers in materials and technology
Drivers beyond CFRP technology and the roadmap for adoption
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Agenda
Lay of the land and market updates
Key developers in materials and technology
Drivers beyond CFRP technology and the roadmap for adoption
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Composites value chain spans from precursor to end use
Precursor Fiber Intermediate Composite
PAN, rayon, pitch
Carbon fiber
Prepreg
Molded part
Heat, sizing, surface treatment
Add resin, mold
Polyolefin, lignin
Mold
Molded part
Braid, weave, or
spray
Preform
Add resin and braid, weave, or
spray
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CFRP market will grow to $35 billion in 2020
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Automotive CFRP partnerships deepen and proliferate
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Lux carbon fiber cost model takes precursor, processing methods, and fiber tow/grade as inputs
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Only textile PAN will reach full scale by 2020
Meeting automotive cost targets requires adoption of alterative precursors
2013 price
Precursor Oxidation
Carbonization Surface treatment and sizing
Spooling and packaging
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Automotive CFRP market will reach $6 billion in 2020
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Strategic Predictive Tool Methodology
1. Framework: compare a specific emerging material with a mature material of the same framework classification
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Strategic Predictive Tool Methodology
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1952 1954 1956#
of
Pat
ents
1954-1955: Patent
inflection
1. Framework: compare a specific emerging material with a mature material of the same framework classification
2. Patents: Identify years in which major shifts in the growth rate of the patent count occurred
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Strategic Predictive Tool Methodology
1. Framework: compare a specific emerging material with a mature material of the same framework classification
2. Patents: Identify years in which major shifts in the growth rate of the patent count occurred
3. Correlate key patent years with significant commercial adoption milestones
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Patent History of Glass Fiber Gives Insight to the Future Trajectory of Carbon Fiber
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
400019
36
1938
194
0
194
2
194
4
194
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194
8
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
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0
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2
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4
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6
196
8
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
198
0
198
2
198
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# o
f P
aten
ts
Glass fiber
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1939-1940: Patent spike
1965-1966: Patent spike
1953: Kaiser Darrin and Chevy Corvette are first production sports cars with fiberglass bodies
1984: Pontiac Fieroisis first mainstream car with fiberglass body
Penetration of Carbon Fiber in Mainstream Automotive Projected in mid-2020s
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1975
1977
1979
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
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198
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1
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3
199
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7
199
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01
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# o
f P
aten
ts
Automotive CFRP
2000-2001: Patent spike
2006-2007: Patent spike
2013: BMW launches i3
Mid-2020’s: Mainstream CFRP use in automotive
expected
Agenda
Lay of the land and market updates
Key developers in materials and technology
Drivers beyond CFRP technology and the roadmap for adoption
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Precursor Fiber and
resin Intermediate CFRP Recycling
Innovation spans the carbon fiber composites value chain
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Innovation in Automotive CFRP is Focused on Three Core Areas
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Fibers Resins Processing
Innovation in Automotive CFRP is Focused on Three Core Areas
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Fibers Resins Processing
Oak Ridge Carbon Fiber Technology Facility Low-cost carbon fiber production technology
Seeks to reduce carbon fiber cost via energy efficiency enhancements and alternative precursors.
Recently demonstrated pilot-scale production of standard modulus fiber from textile-grade PAN
Established as an open-access carbon fiber research and development (R&D) facility
Also exploring lignin and polyolefin-derived fibers; these remain years out due to poor mechanical performance
Founded the Oak Ridge Carbon Fiber Consortium of major producers and end users of carbon fiber to promote faster technology development
Employees 2013 Revenue
75 $0
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Carbon Nexus Australian research center for carbon fiber and its composites
Seeks to reduce carbon fiber cost via energy efficiency enhancements and alternative precursors
Established as an open access carbon fiber research and development (R&D) facility with funding support from state and federal governments
Collaborating with Quickstep Technologies to develop out-of-autoclave composite manufacturing processes
Incorporates carbon nanomaterials into polyacrylonitrile (PAN) precursor to enhance carbon fiber tensile strength
Clients can consider leveraging this well-funded facility to further their carbon fiber interests, but compare membership specifics with that of the ORNL consortium
Employees 2013 Revenue
30 $0
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Innovation in Automotive CFRP is Focused on Three Core Areas
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Fibers Resins Processing
IB Steiner Polymer and composite molding technology
Developed Exjection, a thermoplastic and composite molding process similar to injection molding; Exjection decreases the required pressure and clamping force compared to injection molding, reducing equipment costs, and also can be used to produce parts of unlimited length
Partnered with equipment manufacturers Arburg and Engel; customer base includes Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier
Clients using injection molding, RTM, and other CFRP molding processes should engage with the company or its partners, as this technology could increase throughput and reduce capital costs compared to injection molding
Employees 2012 Revenue
23 $2.6 million
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RocTool Plastic and composite molding equipment using induction heating
Develops molding equipment and processes that use induction heating to more rapidly bring molds to the required temperature
Released a new version of its technology aimed at high-volume composite applications that it claimed eliminate the need for heavy compression equipment, but require higher operating temperatures
Claimed more than 40 licensees operating at scale including Hanwha Azdel, BMW, TenCate, SABIC IP, and Engel
Clients producing molded thermoplastic or composite parts should consider licensing this leader's processes
Employees 2013 Revenue
28 $7.23 million
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Materials Innovation Technologies Carbon-fiber reclaimer and composite manufacturer
Sells recycled chopped carbon fiber in fiber, non-woven mat, and prepeg forms
3-DEP preform process creates complex shapes with very specific fiber orientations; Co-DEP produces thermoplastic composite parts
Development partners include Boeing, GM, and Proterra
Collects scrap CF and CFRPs directly from manufacturers and end users; suppliers include Boeing, Airbus, Ford, and BMW
Clients with large CF disposal or recycling needs, or those interested in chopped-fiber composites for secondary structural applications, should sample its wares
Employees 2011 Revenue
38 $2.5 million
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Innovation in Automotive CFRP is Focused on Three Core Areas
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Fibers Resins Processing
Larger companies work on resins and molding
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Agenda
Lay of the land and market updates
Key developers in materials and technology
Drivers beyond CFRP technology and the roadmap for adoption
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Numerous Factors Contribute to the Pace and Extent of Automotive Adoption
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Long-term megatrends towards urbanization, connectivity, and automation could have even greater impact than materials
Urbanization
Connectivity and
Automation
Materials Revolution
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Safety is a thread that runs through those visions of future, and we are on the cusp of a revolution
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No one will die in a new car by 2030.
Would you choose a crash in Formula 1 car at 200 mph, or in your own car at 50 mph?
Formula 1 safety changed dramatically in 1980s, with
introduction of amazingly light carbon fiber composite body
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5
16 15
12
4 3
0 02468
1012141618
Racing driver
deaths in F1, by
decade
All automakers are already on the road toward driver-assist safety
U.S. government body for vehicle safety “adding two high-tech braking technologies to the list of safety gear it recommends to car shoppers”
This is just the start; 2015 Mercedes S-Class already offers semi-autonomous driving:
Adaptive cruise control up to 200 km/h
Self-steering to keep within lane
Emergency braking from 70 km/h
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If cars don’t crash, why do they need high strength materials like
carbon fiber?
Conclusions
Growth in automotive since 2012 exceeded expectations, but truly large-volume adoption depends on future technical advances and forward-looking partnerships
While the post-2020 potential market opportunity for CFRPs in automotive is very large relative to traditional applications, the exact timing of adoption that far out is uncertain
Commercial penetration depends on overcoming challenges throughout the value chain to unlock full opportunity – look to emerging developers for partnership opportunities
This is not happening in a vacuum: CFRP developers must beware competitive lightweighting and other innovations that reduce fuel consumption…
…as well as long-term megatrends that could have even greater impact
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Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Anthony Schiavo Research Associate Anthony.schiavo@luxresearchinc.com +1 617 502 5318
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