science-based targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
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Science-based Targetsfor agriculture and forestry commodities
September 25, 2015
Giel Linthorst (Ecofys)
Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen)
© ECOFYS | |
Agenda for stakeholder workshop
PART 1
1. Welcome & introduction
2. Background of this project
3. Climate science and agriculture emissions
4. Science-based target setting
5. Methodology developments for agriculture and forestry commodities
6. Project planning
7. Collaboration with stakeholders
8. Q&A
PART 2
1. Interactive discussion based on specific methodological issues
2. Polling
CLOSURE AND NEXT STEPS
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
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PART 1. Background of this project
> Agricultural and forestry commodities (ranging from meat, diary to rice, wheat
and to wood) have a large impact on the environment and on the other hand
suffer from climate change in many regions
> Growth of global population and welfare will lead to almost doubling of demand
for agriculture and forestry commodities in 2050
> Increase of productivity combined with mitigating of GHG emissions are
required to meet global development and climate goals
> Companies play important role in increasing productivity while mitigating GHG
emissions
> However, there is no transparent methodology that guides companies to
improve efficiency and to reduce GHG per unit of agricultural and forestry
commodity
t GHG/unit food productt GHG/ha/yr
e.g. Smith et al. (2008); IPCC
e.g. Macdiarmid et al.(2013)
t GHG/t commodity
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
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Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might
increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century
Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII Mitigation of Climate Change, 2014
• To prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2010 to
commit to a maximum temperature rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
© ECOFYS | |
Mitigation in agriculture and forestry is crucial to keep global
warming below 2 °C
Source: RCP2.6, Detlef P. van Vuuren et al (2011)
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
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Science-based Targets setting for companies
Inspire and enable companies to set GHG emission reduction
targets in line with the level of decarbonization required to
keep global warming 2°C
a) By the end of 2015 over 100 leading multinational
companies will have commited to adopt science-based
emission reduction targets
b) By 2020 this will be more than 250 companies
c) This initiative will also demonstrate to policy-makers the
scale of ambition among leading companies to reduce their
emissions and act as a positive influence on international
climate negotiations
Goal
Expected outcomes
Science-based Targets25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Science Based Targets initiative
Launched by CDP, UN Global Compact, WRI and WWF
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51 companies already committed to set Science-based Targets
Full list: https://www.cdp.net/en-US/pages/rtp/adopt-science-based-targets.aspx
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
> ”If your argument is tied to climate science, it becomes very hard
for people to say: well, that’s the wrong target.’
Kevin Rabinovitch, global sustainability director
> “Investing in sustainability is an investment in the company’s future
as well as in the communities where the company operates.”
Karl-Johan Persson, CEO
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New methodology was developed to set Science-based
Targets
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
• For the Science Based Targets initiative, Ecofys
developed with CDP, WRI and WWF a new
methodology, called the Sectoral Decarbonization
Approach (SDA)
• The SDA methodology is based on the least-cost
modelled 2oC scenario (2DS) developed by the
International Energy Agency (IEA) as part of
its publication, Energy Technology Perspectives
2014
• Development of the SDA methodology involved
intensive stakeholder consultation
• The SDA methodology is freely available
• Scientific backing published in Nature Climate
Change
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Current sectoral coverage of the SDA methodology
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Currently, over 60% of the global GHG emissions
are covered by the methodology.
However, not covered are:
• Other Energy, e.g. fossil fuel extraction and
production
• Agriculture, forestry and Land Use
(AFOLU)
Note that some sectors are intertwined.
• Fertilizer is produced in industry, but used in
AFOLU
• Biofuels reduce emissions in Transport, but
generate emissions in AFOLU
AFOLU
Industry
Other energy
Electricity
and heat
Transport
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SDA methodology – From sectors to companies:
convergence of carbon intensity towards 2050
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Implication: companies with growing market share should do more
Sector average
Company with higher carbon intensity
… and growing market share
… or decreasing market share
Company with lower carbon intensity
Carb
on
in
ten
sit
y (
t C
O2eq
/ t
of
pro
du
ct)
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A similar methodology will be developed for 10 major
agriculture and forestry commodities
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Step 1. Breakdown AFOLU emissions and selection of commodities
Step 2. Assess growth of production volumes and different production methods
Step 3. Create MACCs of measures and model scenarios
Step 4. Develop decarbonization pathway 2010-2050
Sta
keh
old
er a
nd
exp
ert
inte
ractio
n a
nd
revie
w
© ECOFYS | |
Step 1. Breakdown AFOLU emissions and selection of
commodities
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
AFOLU GHG emissions (GtCO2eq)
Agriculture FOLU (LULUCF)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Direct agriculture GHG emissions
Rest
Palm oil
Soy
Chicken
Maize
Wheat
Pigs
Dairy
Rice
Beef
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FOLU (LULUCF) GHG emissions
(GtCO2eq)
Rest
Palm oil
Beef
Soy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Total GHG emissions (GtCO2eq)
Electricity and Heat Other Energy
Industry Transport
Buildings AFOLU
24%
6%
14%
21%
10%
25%
51%
49%
59%
41%
24%
76%
Sources: IPCC, 2014 & CEA, 2014
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Step 1. Selection of agriculture and forestry commodities
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
The following commodities are selected:
1. Meat – Beef
2. Dairy
3. Poultry (Chicken)
4. Meat – Pig
5. Rice
6. Maize
7. Wheat
8. Palm Oil
9. Soybeans
10.Round wood
The choice for these commodities was based on:
> Their large role in AFOLU emissions
> Their large volumes traded
© ECOFYS | |
Step 2. Assess growth of production volumes and different
production methods
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
million m3/year
(roundwood only)
million t DM/year
(all agro commodities)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Growth of production volumes
Beef million t DM/yr Diary million t DM/yr Poultry million t DM/yr Pigs million t DM/yr
Rice million t DM/yr Maize million t DM/yr Wheat million t DM/yr Palm oil million t DM/yr
Soy million t DM/yr Round wood million m3/yr
© ECOFYS | | 25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Step 3. Assessing potential and costs of mitigation measures
Commodities Mitigation measures CostUpland crops (Maize, Wheat, Soybean, Palm oil, Upland rice)
Reduced fertilization Reduced cost
Increased fertilization Increased cost
100% residue incorporation No cost
Nitrification inhibitors Increased cost
Split N fertilization Increased labour cost
No-till adoption No cost
Wetland rice
Mid-season drainage Increased cost
Alternate wetting and drying Increased cost
Dry seeding −
Upland rice −
Residue incorporation-50% No cost
Residue incorporation-100% No cost
No-till No cost
Ammonium sulphate Increased cost
Nitrification inhibitors Increased cost
Slow release Urea Increased cost
Reduced fertilization Reduced cost
Livestock (Meat-beef, Dairy, Poultry-chicken)
Improved feed Increased cost
Antibiotics Increased cost
Bovine Somatrotropin (bST Increased cost
Propionate Precursors Increased cost
Antimethanogen Increased cost
Intensive Grazing Increased cost
Manure management (Anaerobic digesters) Increased cost
SOURCE: USEPA 2013
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Step 3. Create MACCs of measures and model scenarios
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
© ECOFYS | |
Step 4. Develop decarbonization pathway towards 2050
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ind
ex v
alu
e
Year
Wheat
Emission intensity index Emissions Index
Production activity index
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ton
ne
CO
2eq
/to
nn
e w
he
at
Year
Wheat emission intensity (CO2 eq) (present-2050)
CO2 CH4 (CO2 eq) N2O (CO2 eq)
© ECOFYS | |
Key characteristics of new methodology for agriculture and
forestry commodities
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
1. The methodology will be based on a new least-cost modelled 2oC scenario
taking into account latest insights in mitigation potential and costs of
climate-smart solutions.
2. The methodology is based on intensity pathways per commodity, using
physical indicators (tonne of product) for the 10 major agriculture and
forestry commodities
3. Both carbon intensity and absolute targets can be set by the methodology
4. The methodology can be applied by farmers up to retailers to reduce GHG
emissions during production and to green the supply chain
5. The methodology is flexible to set targets for each year until 2050
6. The methodology will be improved continuously based on new insights
© ECOFYS | |
Planning of methodology development
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Task M J J A S O N D J F M A M
1. Current emissions breakdown and selection of commodities
2. Assess production volume and different production methods
3. Create MACCs of measures and model least-cost 2 oCscenarios
4. Develop decarbonizationpathway 2010- 2050
Stakeholder and expert interaction and review- Stakeholder workshops- Technical Advisory Group
© ECOFYS | |
Four potential opportunities for collaboration
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
1. Join stakeholder group and
participate in online workshops
2. Be member of Technical Advisory
Group (TAG)
3. Pilot test draft methodology
4. Assess positive impact of your
solutions
Opportunities
• Stay up-to-date on project and developed methodology
• Provide input to methodology development • Discuss issues with other stakeholders
• Get in-depth insights in methodology development
• Provide pro-active input and feedback on methodology
• Get visibility as TAG-member on stakeholder workshops
• Be one of the first companies that applies the development methodology to its commodities
• Get valuable insights in current performance and targets
• Get valuable insights in potential and cost to mitigate emissions
• Get overview of positive impact of your solutions on global scale and in 2oC scenario
Benefits for you
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Questions on Part 1
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Please feel free to ask your questions:
- by raising your hand in the WebEx or
- by typing your question in the Chat box
After raising your hand, we will unmute you to hear your questions and we will
monitor the Chat box to answer the main questions.
After this short Q&A we will
address more specific points for
debate in part 2 of this workshop
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PART 2. Topics for discussion
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
1. Selection of commodities and differentiation between production methods, e.g.:a. Differentiation between wet and dry riceb. Differentiation between intensities of production methodsc. Differentiation between production systems
2. Corporate practices of measuring GHG emissions on farm level linked to physical indicators used in the methodology
3. Measures per commodity, e.g.:a. To increase yieldb. To mitigate emissionsc. To increase resilience
© ECOFYS | |
CLOSURE AND NEXT STEPS
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
Please contact Giel Linthorst of Ecofys if
• You have valuable input or feedback for our project
• You want to be invited for the next stakeholder workshop in March 2016
• You want to be part of the Technical Advisory Group
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you
Giel Linthorst
Programme leader Science-based Targets
T: +31 (0)30 662 3322
M: +31 (0)6 11 366 935
E: g.linthorst@ecofys.com
25/09/2015 Science-based Targets for agriculture and forestry commodities
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