science into policy and other thoughts eur geol garth earls director, gsni igi natural resources...

Science into Policy and

Other Thoughts

Eur Geol Garth EarlsDirector, GSNI

IGI Natural Resources Reporting Workshop, Dublin Castle, 15th May 2009

"The bulk of government is not legislation but administration." "Men can never escape being governed. Either they must govern themselves or they must submit to being governed by others."

Theodore Roosevelt, Jamestown, VA, April 26, 1907

Presentation Structure

• Science into Policy• Communication and Risk • Examples

– Natural Resources and SD– Security of Supply– Environmental

• Future Challenges• Last word on Communication

Science into Policy

• Policy-makers need to know about the ongoing science

• Scientists need to recognise policy-relevance in their science and identify which policy-makers it’s relevant to

• We need to engage these policy-makers in the science from its outset

Science into Policy

• We must communicate science outputs to policy-makers in an accessible form

• Policy-makers must recognise/ be shown how this science fits into their political agenda

• Policy-makers do not use science in a way that follows a standard set of rules

Science into Policy

• Political realities and serendipity often have significant roles

• The approach taken by scientists, and the specific needs of the policy-maker, will differ depending upon the circumstances

NERC flowchart of consultation

Key People and Strategy

• Make sure you’re speaking to the right person/people

• Always emphasise what you can do

• All communications must be brief and digestible, and contain a timely, realistic and politically acceptable message

• Giving options is the best way of getting science into policy

Key People and Strategy

• Remember the media’s influence on policy-makers

• Long-term relationships with frequent interaction and feedback are critical to building mutual understanding and trust

• Be proactive about building up relationships

If I press this does it blow up Stormont?

How Not to Meet a Decision Maker

Michael Stone, Parliament Buildings, November 2006

Are We Credible?

Credibility Ladder: Environmental Health

• Citizen advisory panels • Safety/emergency response professionals • Professors/educators • Media• Environmental/advocacy groups• Industry• GovernmentGovernment• Consultants from “for-profit” firms

Most

Least

Who cares about Geology?

• Not very many people

• 0.003% of EU are geologists– c. 1 in 35,000

• Need to identify match with our agenda and others agendas

Why people should care about Geology?

So What Are We Trying To Do?

• Communicate our science• Communicate risk

Who are we Communicating With?

• Government• Politicians• Civil Servants• NDPBs• Professional Bodies• NGOs• Lobby Groups• Public

• PR advice is critical

Communicating Risk

Information on geological hazards:A shrink-swell clay database for developers & insurers

This is long term Communication

• Ministers, Politicians and Civil Servants are only in post for a few years

• News media are always looking for stories• We might have heard our various mantras several

times – don’t assume that everyone else has

1633 tonnes

If you cannot grow it

You have to extract it

Living requires materials

Key Drivers

• Security of Supply• Financial Regulation• Environmental Regulation• Professionalism• The Champion

– the REAL Driver

Definitions Can Be Different

• Natural Resources can be different things to different people

• Sustainable Development in the extractive industries is a hard sell in many quarters

• There is a diverse group of interested parties

–Companies–Investors–Regulators–General public

Need to match communication story with appropriate group

What are Natural Resources?Natural resources can be thought of in five overlapping ways. Each of these reflect values that we associate with them

1. Raw materials - minerals and biomass2. Flow resources – geothermal, wind, tidal and solar energy3. Environmental - water, soil and air4. Space is required to produce or sustain all the above5. Biological - species and genetic information

Sustainable Development 1. Has arisen because of population increase and land and

many resources are finite

2. It is about getting a balance between development, government, society and environment by trying to equitably share development benefits

3. Evolution is development; all species are designed to develop and flourish, usually at the expense of other species. But growth is normally self-limiting - unsustainable populations will die back or become extinct

4. No development and no life-form has zero impact on the environment, but the environment on this planet has an extensive ability to absorb change

Sustainable Development5. The human population is projected to grow 50% by

2050 (from ~6 bn to ~9 bn). Is this sustainable?

6. Newly mined materials will be essential to support this growing population. It is estimated that 5x the amount of metal mined in the world to date must be mined in the next 50 years to satisfy this growth

7. Per capita consumption rates in the developing world are growing fast, and would be huge if they matched US rates.

8. Recycling cannot satisfy this demand when population and per capita consumption are growing.

Thus, we have no option but to continue mining

Sustainable Development - Regional

UK objectives for SD

• Social progress which recognises the needs of everyone;

• Effective protection of the environment;

• Prudent use of natural resources; and

• Maintenance of high and stable levels of economic growth and employment.

Sustainable Development - Regional

• Our economy is minerals based

• Minerals can only be worked where they occur

• Good quality information on the spatial extent and quality of mineral resources critical in sustainable development

• Spatial information allows system to:

– Identify extraction areas/ sites with least negative environmental impact

– Safeguard resources for future generations by preventing unnecessary sterilisation

East Midlands Minerals Information Online Web GIS

Sustainable Development must be underpinned by Baseline data

A Sustainable Minerals Approach

Global NaturalResource

Stewardship

Governance at all levels

Community Issues

Environment& Planning

StakeholderDialogue

ConsensualDecisionMaking

Economic Drivers

It’s a bit like Evolution

• Progress happens out of catastrophes or disasters

• Loss of confidence• Bre-X causes an

extinction event• Creates a vacuum /

opportunity• New species develop

Security of supply and the West‘Europe is confronted with large risks regarding securing sustainable access to raw materials for industry, which will very probably even

further intensify.’ Vice-President Verhuegen, European Commissioner for Enterprise

and Industry, 10 November 2008

Mantra Repetition

• Minerals are vital to the national economy

• Provide essential primary raw materials for UK industry

• Continuity and security of supply at local, regional and national level is essential for the sustainable development of a modern economy

Float glass manufacture

Security of supply –what do we mean?

• Defined in terms of ‘criticality’ and ‘vulnerability’

• Criticality relates to the contribution a mineral makes to the national economy

• Vulnerability relates to the risk of distribution to supply – the fewer the sources the more vulnerable the supply

• Minerals that are critical and vulnerable were ‘strategic minerals’ – principally ferroalloy elements and platinum

• All imports must appear on a scale of vulnerability

Security of UK Minerals Supply

• UK (and EU) increasingly dependent on imports for minerals and metals

• Sources often few in number and competition for supply is increasing

• Pressure on world commodity prices

• UK became a net importer of gas in 2004

• Net importer of oil by 2010

• Coal imports are at record levels

Energy in Northern IrelandPolicy into Practice

• Lignite – all parties against open cast mining

• No indigenous commercial hydrocarbons

• At end of European gas pipeline network

• Gas fired power stations

Possible Solution• Examine gas storage in salt beds• Written into Energy Strategy and

science funded

Green politics and the impact of climate change

"I do not intend that our natural resources shall be exploited by the few against the interests of the many."

— President Theodore Roosevelt

Foundation of the European economy

• About 2.7 billion tonnes produced in 2005

• Construction output is 6.2% of EU GDP (2006)

• 26 million EU jobs directly or indirectly depend on construction

• 60 tonnes aggregate required to build average house (400 tonnes if associated infrastructure included)

NIMBYISM: the politics of land-use

• Population up, open space down, opposition up

• Society places higher value on environment

• Fixity – resources, people – no exit - voice

• UK Saint Index - opposition 79 to 86 % (landfill, power stations, quarrying and casinos)

• Permitting costs are a significant barrier to entry

NIMBYISM: the politics of land-use

• Risks associated with permitting are strong influence on industry structure

• Posing issues for government

• How do we gain social acceptance – community grants / goodwill payments?

• Real need for more deliberation and better communication between policy makers, technical experts and public

Cavanacaw

Nickel in soil

Nickel above SGV*

* SGV = Soil Guideline Value (DEFRA & EA) Was 50ppm – now 130ppm Ni

What Next for Resource Reporting• CCS – need to estimate and value pore space and connectivity• Carbon footprint of resources• Geothermal Inter-regional

flows of crushed rock 2005

Communication to Public

• Force the question• Relate the issue to

their lives• Where does

commodity x, y and z come from

• More environmentally responsible to exploit indigenous resources than import

Communication to Students

• How much is taught at School– Not much but increasing

• How much is taught at University– Too prosaic – not enough relevance

• What is more important – detailed knowledge of S4 cleavage

or understanding natural resources• Need more geoscience students in

decision making roles

Communication to Kids

• Probably the most important area• Long term policy• Potential to change attitudes• Range of geoscience issues

– Gold– Volcanoes– Dinosaurs

Communication to Kids

• Climate Change• Energy and

Minerals• Water• Hazards

DETI Minister Arlene Foster and BBC geologist Iain Stewart at Methodist College Belfast

Thank You

NEW

Pollution preventionStrategicRights and responsibilitiesPrecautionary approaches‘Guarantee positive good’Social ReportingIndicatorsFinancial Drivers

Corporate Citizenship: A New Paradigm

OLD

Polluter paysTangentialRegulation and complianceCrisis–management‘Do no harm’Public RelationsDescriptionRegulatory Drivers

Source: Alyson Warhurst, Warwick University

1. Gains emanating from the transformation of subsurface capital (e.g. minerals) contribute more positively to sustainable development

2. Pro-active interpretation of environmental and social responsibility beyond legal obligations to employees and shareholders

3. Products contribute to QoL and wellbeing4. Sustainability Performance Management, Sustainability

Indicators and Sustainability Reporting

From Rights To Responsibilities

Our stakeholders

Statutory bodies

Industry

Financial sector

Government departments

RegulatorsConsultants

Campaigning groups

Academia

General public

Overseas governments

MineralsUKCent re fo r sustainable min eral deve lop men t