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Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke
Sec�on 1: Introduc�on
GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014
Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke
Outline
1. Sources of information
2. Recent and future climate change
3. Indicators and impacts
4. What can we do?
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke
Outline
1. Sources of information
2. Recent and future climate change
3. Indicators and impacts
4. What can we do?
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke
Climate change “denialism” abounds!
Global Climate Change 5 Prof J. Hicke
Listen to the experts!
Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke
“I don’t know anything about gall bladders and kidneys, but I do know something about windshields.”
Listen to the experts
Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke
3. Scientific organizations 4. National academies
2. National and international assessments
Listen to the experts!
1. Active climate scientists
97% are convinced of human-caused climate
change
Global Climate Change 8 Prof J. Hicke
Who is listening?
US military
hunters/anglers
religious groups
cities, states/provinces
Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke
Outline
1. Sources of information
2. Recent and future climate change
3. Indicators and impacts
4. What can we do?
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke
Headline Statements from IPCC 2013 report
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentra�ons of greenhouse gases have increased.” “Human influence on the climate system is clear.” “Con�nued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming... Limi�ng climate change will require substan�al and sustained reduc�ons of greenhouse gas emissions.”
Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke
What’s new in IPCC 2013 report?
improved analysis of observa�ons of climate system
climate models have improved
evidence for human influence has grown
addi�onal impacts to human and natural systems have been documented
Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke
Recent (last 100+ years) climate change
J. E. Hansen, NASA GISS, data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke
h�p://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-‐bin/details.cgi?aid=4030
Anima�on of map of temperature anomalies during last 100+ years
Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke
Global Climate Change 15 Prof J. Hicke
Historical (last 12,000 years) climate change
Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Global Climate Change 16 Prof J. Hicke
Historical climate change from IPCC 2013 report
temperature trends
ocean heat
content trends
sea ice trend
IPCC 2013 WGI report
Global Climate Change 17 Prof J. Hicke
Future climate change from IPCC 2013 report
IPCC 2013 WGI report
Global Climate Change 18 Prof J. Hicke
Future climate change from IPCC 2013 report
IPCC 2013 WGI report
Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke
Causes (“forcings”) of climate change
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Carbon emissions con�nue
Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke www.globalwarmingart.com
CO2 higher than any �me in last 400,000 years
Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Increases in greenhouse gases
Global Climate Change 23 Prof J. Hicke
Causes of climate change from IPCC AR5 SPM
Global Climate Change 24 Prof J. Hicke
Outline
1. Sources of information
2. Recent and future climate change
3. Indicators and impacts
4. What can we do?
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke
USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009
Changes in extreme events Historical observa�ons
Model projec�ons
Na�onal Climate Assessment, dra�, 2013
Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009
Impacts to snow, streamflow
Global Climate Change 27 Prof J. Hicke
1920 (H. Richardson)
1992 (D. Jensen)
Benson Glacier, Eagle Cap,
Wallowa Mtns, OR
(courtesy USDA)
Andrew G. Fountain Portland State University
Global Climate Change 28 Prof J. Hicke
Es�mated effect of climate change on crop yields 1960-‐2013
IPCC 2013 WGII report
Global Climate Change 29 Prof J. Hicke IPCC 2013 WGII report
Projec�ons of sea level rise
Global Climate Change 30 Prof J. Hicke
5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise
William Haxby, Lamont-‐Doherty Earth Observatory
If West Antarc�ca sheet melted…
Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidification, 2012
Ocean acidification from increased CO2
ocean pH (acidity)
1900-2000: observed increase by 30%
by 2100: projected doubling
Na�onal Climate Assessment, dra�, 2013
Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke National Climate Assessment, draft, 2013
3, 7. Tree mortality 8. Rocky Mountain high-elevation
areas: Flower phenology changes
11, 14. Earlier first flowering,
arrival dates 18. Northward movement of fish
Biological indicators and impacts
Global Climate Change 33 Prof J. Hicke
Bull trout habitat to decline with future warming
+0.6ºC
+1.6ºC +5.0ºC
Rieman et al. 2007
Joseph R. Tomelleri
Global Climate Change 34 Prof J. Hicke Raffa et al., BioScience, 2008
Bark beetle-‐caused tree mortality throughout North America
Photo by Craig Allen - USGS
© Parks Canada/Ross MacDonald/KNP/2004
Pinyon ips beetle
Mountain pine beetle
Spruce beetle
Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke
Wildfire: Projec�ons based on future climate change
Li�ell et al., Ecological Applica�ons, 2009; Na�onal Academies, Climate Stabiliza�on Targets, 2010
increase in burned area for 1º C increase in
temperature
Global Climate Change 36 Prof J. Hicke
IPCC 2013 WGI report
Observed evidence is consistent with warming
Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Impacts of future climate
change
Global Climate Change 38 Prof J. Hicke
Outline
1. Sources of information
2. Recent and future climate change
3. Indicators and impacts
4. What can we do?
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
Global Climate Change 39 Prof J. Hicke
1. Reduce energy use
1000bulbs.com
wikipedia.org
ehow.com
Global Climate Change 40 Prof J. Hicke
2. What else you can do
become more informed
talk to friends and family
vote with your dollars
support policy makers
www.homeartblog.com
www.port.ac.uk www.core77.com
blogs.villagevoice.com commons.wikimedia.org
consider career choices
www.dovetailsolar.com fullcircle.asu.edu
Global Climate Change 41 Prof J. Hicke
3. Increase use of renewable energy and avoid extracting more oil, gas, etc.
jonathanturley.org energy.gov
science.howstuffworks.com www.boem.gov
Global Climate Change 42 Prof J. Hicke
4. Develop new technology
ITER organiza�on
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Nuclear fusion Solar roads
Ar�ficial trees
breakthroughgen.wordpress.com
Global Climate Change 43 Prof J. Hicke
Summary and Conclusions
Climate change is happening and will continue global AND local
Serious impacts to environment, including humans
We can reduce future climate change, but we have to act now
J. Hicke
J. Hicke
Alan Wilson
Climate Change: The Current Science
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