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Securing Water for Our Future

“Water is a silent servant”

James Dalton, Director of Civil Works, COE HQICWP Conference, March 2018

Byzantium/Constantinople

Emperor Valens

400 mile aqueduct in the 300’s- Equivalent mileage: Spfd to Dallas

We have been solving the problem of getting access to water

resources since civilization began.

Surface water sources include streams and rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and oceans.

http://www2.worldwater.org/chronology.html

Global Supply – Surface Water

Day Zero, Cape Town, South Africa2018

These tree trunks were submerged when the Theewaterskloof Dam in Villiersdorp, South Africa, was full.

“Day Zero" was forecast for April 12, 2018. Cape Town (4 million people), was preparing to

be the world's first major city to run dry.

• If "Day Zero" had arrived, many people would have had to go to collection points guarded

by security forces for a daily ration of 6.6 gallons.

• Since around the end of white minority rule in 1994, the population has soared by about 80

percent, straining municipal infrastructure.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/water-crisis-hits-cape-town-south-africa-day-zero-looms-n841881?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

With one-fifth of the world’s population relying on seasonal Himalayan melting, the

disappearance of the Third Pole is sending warning signs.

• 1.3 billion people live in the watersheds directly supplied by glacial melt from the

Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region.

• As the Himalayan glaciers disappear, ten major Asian river systems are

threatened.

http://www.circleofblue.org/himalayas/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/tracking-the-himalaya-rsquo-s-melting-glaciers

The disappearing third pole.

• City reduced water demand per capita by almost 50 percent.

• Invested millions in infrastructure.

• That included a pipeline that would deliver water over mountains.

• Invested more than $6 billion in the construction of the Wonthaggi Desalination Plant,

• Which to this day has never been used.

• Rebate programs for residential graywater systems—used for gardening.

• The government invested heavily in increasing the use of recycled water.

• Citizens also invested in rainwater holding tanks—by the end of the drought, nearly 1 in 3 citizens of

Melbourne had one.

• Water restrictions were implemented and education programs launched.

• Electronic billboards that flashed reservoir levels.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-australia-can-teach-the-world-about-surviving-drought/

Australian Drought, 1997 to 2009

• Worst drought in history.

• Melbourne (4.3 million people) water levels dropped to an all-time low capacity of 25.6 percent before the drought eased.

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE; WHYMAP; MARGAT, 2008; MARGAT AND VAN DER GUN, 2013, GROUNDWATER AROUND THE WORLD

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/07/world-aquifers-water-wars/#/world-aquifer.jpg

Key groundwater basins on every inhabited continent are being drained, according to the study.http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2015/world/groundwater-depletion-stresses-majority-of-worlds-largest-aquifers/

More than 2

billion people rely

on aquifers as

their primary

water source.

Water reserves in

21 of the 37 largest

aquifers have

declined since 2003.

University of California, Irvine,

analysis of data from NASA’S

GRACE satellite mission.

Source: Water Resource Research

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-30/global-aquifer-water-level-anomalies/6584460

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/can-graphene-make-the-worlds-water-clean/

“By the middle of the century more than half of the planet will live in areas of “water

stress”, where supplies cannot sustainably meet demand.”-The Economist

Projected Water Sources Stress in 2030

http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/aqueduct/maps-data

Global Factors – World Population Growth and Agriculture

Between 1800 and 2000 the human population increased

about six-fold. Will there be enough water and food to

support the projected population of 9.2 billion in 2050? In

the U.S., agriculture is 80% of consumptive water use.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/irrigation-water-use.aspx

https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.12952/journal.elementa.000083/

Global Supply – Use by Sector

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/maps-art-gis-geography-robert-szucs

U.S. Supply - Surface Water

New 3D maps created by geographer Robert Szucs, show not only the rivers, but

also the massive, sprawling basins that feed them.

The U.S. population is projected to increase from 314 million in 2012 to 420

million in 2060 -US Census Bureau

U.S. Supply – Surface Water

Visible at the top of the Hoover Dam, this 'bathtub ring' shows the devastating effects of

drought and over-assignment which has seen the level of Lake Mead drop to an historic

low.

• The lake's surface now sits at just over 1,000ft, the lowest point it has been since it

started being filled in the early 1930s when the dam was finished.

• The water level is so low that officials from Las Vegas, which draws its water from

Lake Mead, have been forced to spend $800million building a third pipe to ensure

their supply does not run out.

LAKE MEAD WATER LEVEL

1,078.87 Feet MSL

October 24, 2018 7:00:00 PM

Level is 150.13 feet below full

pool of 1,229.00

U.S. Supply – Example Surface Water Decline

http://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp

The California Aqueduct is a system

of canals, tunnels, and pipelines that

conveys water collected from the

Sierra Nevada Mountains and valleys

of northern and central California. The

over 400-mile aqueduct is the

principal feature of the California State

Water Project.

The Central Arizona Project is a

336 mi diversion canal in Arizona

in the United States.

• Cotton, corn, and hay are all crops that could see significant declines in yield by 2050, according to researchers at MIT. They found that stress on water supplies will cut irrigation, leading to the declines. MIT News

• Outside of Phoenix, in the scorching Arizona desert, sits a farm that Saudi Arabia's largest dairy uses to make hay for cows back home. That dairy company, named Almarai, has planted thousands of acres of groundwater-guzzling alfalfa to make that hay. Saudi Arabia can't grow its own hay anymore because those crops drained its own ancient aquifer.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/11/3/1443993/-Saudi-Arabia-has-a-hay-farm-in-Arizona-because-Saudi-Arabia-is-out-of-water-to-grow-hay

Principal aquifers of the United States (modified from Principal Aquifers, U.S. Geological Survey, 2003)

In this map, a principal aquifer is defined as a regionally extensive aquifer or aquifer system that

has the potential to be used as a source of potable water.

http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/aquifer/map.html

USGS Map of the Principal Aquifers of the United States

U.S. Supply - Groundwater

U.S. Supply – Example Cumulative Groundwater Depletion

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/maps/groundwater-depletion-map-united-states

10.7 million acre-feet: Net

decline, between 2013 and

2015, in water storage in the

Ogallala Aquifer.

EPA.gov

U.S. Water Supply – Population Growth and Migration

WHERE DOES MISSOURI DRINKING WATER COME FROM?*

•Surface (rivers, lakes) – 61%• 47% from Missouri River

o 8 of 10 biggest cities

•Ground (aquifers) – 39%• High quality water

• Abundant but not endless

o Cones of depression

o Well interference

o Cost of pumping

o Saltwater intrusion

o Contamination

o Subsidence

o Dependent on re-charge

*Missouri Water Resources Plan/DNR MW

Six Drivers of Concern

No major river for supply.

Population growth.

Aquifer drawdowns – projected gaps in supply.

Drought - which is overdue.

Water is cheaper than dirt.

Riparian law leaves us vulnerable in the water marketplace.

Population densities

stress groundwater

oCones of depression

oWell interference

oCost of pumping

oSaltwater intrusion

oContamination

oSubsidence

oDependent on re-charge

2030

Average Growth

55%

Christian: 141%

Webster: 72%

Taney: 71%

Polk: 49%

Jasper: 46%

Stone: 41%

Greene: 37%

Lawrence: 34%

Barry: 30%

Newton: 27%

https://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/population/pop_proj_2030.stm

Projected increase or

decrease

in county population:

2010 to 2030

Source: Missouri Office of

Administration Division of

Budget & Planning

Branson’s 9 million

visitors a year

averages out to

750,000 people a

month in addition to

full-time populations.

Updated growth

Southwest Missouri Water Supply – Surface and Groundwater

MDNR Water Resources Center

Only five

communities

have access to

surface water

as a secondary

source.

The rest have

a single water

supply source

– groundwater

from the

common

aquifer.

GROUNDWATER LEVEL DECLINE FROM

PREDEVELOPMENT TO 2006-2007

Little or no change

Less than 100 feet

100 to 199.9 feet

200 to 299.9 feet

300 feet or more

Source: Mo DNR, Water Resources Center

Southwest Missouri Water Supply

Annual Average Precipitation 1895-2016

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(in

.)

Data Source: Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

5 yr. running meanLong-term average: 39.91”

Dry PeriodWet Period

1927 1973 19852008

2015

1963198019521901

1936

http://climate.missouri.edu/

U.S. Drought Portal

www.drought.gov

DROUGHT

2012

2018

DROUGHT YEAR 2012

MO Cost share

program to drill or

deepen wells got

11,000 applications

in two weeks.

Water is not priced to reflect its value

Average pool is ~20,000 Gallons

Pool full of topsoil (bags) cu ft $2.64 = $7,057

Pool full of gasoline at $2.50 per gallon = $50,000

Pool full of milk at $4 per gallon = $80,000

Pool full of perfume at 1 oz/$29 = $3,712 per gallon = $74,240,000

Pool full of water – City Utilities $140 (as of 8/29/18) = .007 cents per gallon

U.S. Supply - Price

12 Gallons–CU/Springfield = .08 cents 12 Gallons of Ozarka Water Sam’s Club = $12.54

“Ozarka Drinking Water is a refreshing alternative to tap water.”

“What’s the difference between tap water and spring water?

Spring water comes from a naturally occurring spring source (like one of the three

Texas springs we use for our Ozarka® Brand 100% Natural Spring Water). Tap

water usually comes from a municipal source that flows directly to your faucet.”

12 Gallons of

Fiji Water =

$120

FIJI Natural Artesian Water, 11.15 Fl Oz, 6 Ct

Average rating:5out of5stars, based on10reviews10

reviews

FIJI Water

Walmart # 558149629$5.49

Jefferson City Water Treatment Plant - 2018

.0045 cents per gallon – less than half of

one cent a gallon.

That means you can buy 2,222 Gallons of

Jefferson City municipal water, or one

gallon of Fiji Water.

Might be worth investing in a cup!

U.S. Supply – Price 2017

Map shows average

monthly cost for a

family of four using

12,000 gallons water a

month (the EPA’s

estimate for average

household use).

Water rates have

increased on average

by 54 percent across

the US 2010-2017.

2017 increase 4 percent

Federal funding for water infrastructure now hovers at just 9 percent, when it once accounted

for more than 60 percent in the late 1970s.

The price tag for overhauling America’s drinking water system will be at least $1 trillion over

the next 25 years. Add to that the estimated $14 billion to $26 billion needed to adapt water

systems to climate change by 2050 and you can see that there is a serious water affordability

crisis looming. http://www.circleofblue.org

Memphis

$36.12

Santa Fe

$284.10

Price of Water 2014: Up 6 Percent in 30 Major U.S. Cities; 33 Percent Rise Since 2010

EPA measure of affordability: average water and sewer bill not to exceed

4.5% of median household income in a utility’s service area

U.S. Supply – Price 2015 Combined Water, Sewer, Stormwater

We’ve got it good living on top of the Ozark Plateau Aquifer.

Steve Harper, Executive Director, Colorado Rural Water Association.

Met at CoBank conference in Colorado, Summer, 2018

“Wells are hit or miss in Colorado”, he said. Recently they drilled a well

3400 feet deep, it cost $2 Million, and they withdrew only 30 gpm.

Missouri is a water rich state, and we function under Riparian Law – the wild west of

water law. As other areas of the country become dryer, our water resources will

become more valuable and sought after.

Water = jobs. Water = commerce. Water will be an economic magnet, much like

inexpensive electricity or available broadband.

Affordable, quality water will be a big economic advantage and opportunity. How

should we be investing in wise water planning today, to maximize that opportunity

and to mitigate potential problems – for us, and for the next generation?

The Water Marketplace Under Riparian Law

Issues Ahead

No major rivers for supply.

Population growth.

Aquifer drawdowns – projected gaps in supply.

Drought - which is overdue.

Water is cheaper than dirt.

Riparian Law leaves us vulnerable.

Our Mission

To ensure adequate,

affordable, long-term

water supplies for

southwest Missouri

Missouri Department of Natural Resources, Water Resources Center

Missouri Water Supply - State Level Planning Through Regional Water Supply Coalitions

Atchison County Wholesale Water

Great Northwest WholesaleWater

Cameron Pipeline

LittleOtter Creek

N Central MO

E. Locust Creek Reservoir

Clarence Cannon

Wholesale Water

Tri-State Water Coalition

~800,000 people

~13% of Missouri taxpayers

Howard

Building Additional Regional Water Infrastructure

The Southwest Missouri Joint Municipal Water Utility Commission

Tri State WaterResource Coalition

Tri State Board of Directors

Tri State /JMUC Executive Director

Staff

SW MO Regional Water Commission(April, 2012)

JMUC Board—Will Consist of one director

from each JMUC member

Tri State/JMUC Executive Director

Project A

Project B

Project C

Members:

Carthage Water & Electric* Christian County City of Branson*

City of Republic City of Joplin* City of Lamar*

City of Monett* City of Mt. Vernon* City of Nixa*

City of Springfield CU of Springfield* Empire District Electric

Greene County Jasper County MO American Water Co

Stone County City of Pierce City

Ozark and Willard are considering becoming members.

Total population for our 16 county footprint is 815,300** = 13.6% of Missouri’s population.

*

**US Census, 2010

Grand Lake Table Rock Lake

Truman Lake

Stockton Lake

Joplin

Missouri

Arkansas

Kansas

Oklahoma

Pomme de Terre Lake

Beaver

Truman Lake

Bull Shoals Lake

Potential regional water supply

sources originally considered for

additional surface water supply

for southwest Missouri.

Potential reservoir sites have been defined,

however the decision was made to make

already impounded water in Stockton and

Table Rock Lakes the priority option.

Southwest Missouri Water Supply

Example of Storage Taken from Multi-Purpose Pool

Surface Elevation Does Not Change / Storage Allocated Differently

892

892

With water supply storage

Different apportion-

ment of storage space

within the lake

Without water supply storage

Source: City Utilities of Springfield

Red - City Utilities water withdrawals since reallocation, in feet.

Blue – Variation of lake level since filled, in feet.

Southwest Missouri Water Supply – Stockton Lake Surface Variation

A reallocation study is a complex multi-step, multi-year process which includes,

among other tasks, determining:

• The needs and impacts of all users of the facility

• Whether alternative supplies exist

• Whether structural or operational modifications are needed

• The cost of storage to the sponsor

• If the conservation pool can be raised, and

• If Congressional approval is required

The number of reallocation agreements rose steadily from the 1960's through the 1990's. Despite continued demand, the

number of reallocation agreements dropped to 35 in the 2000's, with only another 13 being approved between 2010 and

2015.

The main issue preventing approval of more reallocation storage contracts is, according to the Corps of Engineers, a lack

of funding. With budget cutbacks in recent years, the Corps has received less funding to conduct reallocation studies.

The Reallocation Marathon (this aint no sprint).

Southwest Missouri Long-Term Water Supply Investments to Date

as of 8/1/18

Tri-State Water Resource Coalition

(2006, 2009, 2010, 2018 studies)

$352,600

Missouri American Water Company

(2003 study)

$150,000

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Little Rock District

(2006, PAS studies)

$475,000

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District

(PAS, initial assessment & reallocation studies)

$1,786,000

Missouri Department of Natural Resources

(2009, PAS, 2018 studies)

$640,000

TOTAL INVESTMENT as of 8/1/18 $3,403,600

Technical Studies Completed & Underwaywww.tristatewater.org

•Joplin Hydro Study (Wittman Hydro Planning Assoc.)

•Water Supply Study (Black & Veatch)

•Reservoir Site Screening (Freese & Nichols)

•Supplemental Reservoir Study (Freese & Nichols)

•Report Summary (TSWRC)

•S.W. Missouri Water Resource Study – Phase I (CDM)

•S.W. Missouri Water Resource Study – Phase II (CDM)

•S.W. Missouri Water Resource Study – Phase III (CDM)

Under way

•Stockton Lake Reallocation Study (USACE / FY18 Year 4)

•Pomme de Terre Reallocation Study (USACE / FY17 Start)

•Table Rock Lake Reallocation Study (USACE / FY17 Start)

•Rate Study, Economic Impact Analysis (USACE,DNR/ FY18 Start)

Estimated S.W. Missouri Baseline and Projected Average Water Demands to 2060 (GPD)*

YEAR HIGH GROWTH MEDIUM GROWTH LOW GROWTH

2010** 338,503,791 338,326,175 338,326,175

2030 414,026,845 382,615,101 358,502,024

2060 581,735,120 462,337,386 387,226,057

% INCREASE 71.9% 36.7% 14.5%

Southwest Missouri Water Resource Study – Phase I (2012): Forecast of Regional Water Demands 2010 – 2060 (CDM)

–September 2012 (Revised November 2012)

Demand

Medium growth scenario, baseline demand for study area,

projects an increase of 125 million gallons per day by 2060.

Southwest Missouri Water Resource Study – Phase II: Forecast of Regional

Water Supply and Gap Analysis (2014)

Evaluated water supply sources followed by a gap analysis.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

MGD

2060

Surface WaterDemand

Groundwater Demand

Total Water Supply

16 County total Supply Gap

Medium Growth / Drought

Phase II Water Supply

What about Conservation? – A piece in the puzzle, not a total solution

Two scenarios for regional publically supplied municipal and industrial water demands.

• Metering (residential and commercial)

• Leak detection programs

• Educational programs on water savings

• Residential and commercial water audits

Scenario I (moderate)

• Water demands are estimated to decrease by 1-3% annually

Scenario II (substantial)

• Water demands are expected to be reduced by 4-7% annually

Reducing Demand with ConservationGap analysis: supply versus demand

Phase I Water Demand Study

Reallocation Request Marathon2007 – 2018…

Additional elements

• Assessment of existing treatment capacities in the region.

• Possible transmission corridors defined.

• Water treatment and transmission systems were preliminarily sized and planning level costs identified.

• Environmental assessment and environmental impact review.

• Alternative sources of water evaluated.

• Impacts to current users of Stockton Lake evaluated.

• Raw vs treated water considered.

Don’t panic.Do plan.

What About Water from Table Rock?

• The reallocation request by Tri-State Water for water storage out of Table Rock Lake was funded, then paused.

• The Little Rock District Corps of Engineers intends to complete a larger study of the entire five-lake system on the White River, of which TRL is a part, before proceeding further with our reallocation request.

What About Water from Pomme de Terre?

• Pomme de Terre is currently being considered as part of a reallocation study. Water from Pomme de Terre could potentially supplement water from Stockton Lake, though that option would be much more expensive, and therefore is less desirable.

Overall Process / Task Schedule

Timeline for Reallocation Studies: Stockton, Pomme de Terre, Table Rock LakesAs of November, 2017

Next Steps:Rate Study Economic Impact Analysis Staging & Timing of Demand Study

Communication!

Springfield

Joplin

Branson

Mt Vernon

MonettCarthage

Nixa

Republic

Lamar

Stockton

Laying the groundwork to communicate regionally about water supply.

• Citizen Water Survey, 2018

• Define key messages

• Define key communicators

• Create hard-copy materials

• Develop social media

We

Value

Water!

• 3,287 surveys

• 104 communities

• Overall findings have a margin of error of +/- 1.7% at the 95% confidence interval.

A relatively large

percentage of respondents

(46%) did not know the

source of their home tap

water. This was particularly

true for younger

respondents (65%) and

newer residents (62%).

Nearly 70% of

respondents residing in

Southwest Missouri said

their monthly water bill

was inexpensive

compared to other

monthly essentials and

68% rated the value of

their home water (price

paid for amount

consumed) as either

excellent or good.

54%Respondents least

able/willing to pay

anything extra per month

were lower income (less

than $25,000 per year)

and less formally

educated (high school or

less).

2014 Survey City of Springfield/Greene County Community Survey (environmental issues)

Items Most Important to Respondent Households: Based on the sum of respondents’ topthree choices, 95% indicated that drink water protection was the most important to theirhousehold. Other most important items include: Clean air (90%), fishable water (58%),and swimmable water (42%).

Water Providers

• CU/Springfield

• Nixa

• Republic

• Branson

• Mt. Vernon

• Monett

• Carthage

• Mo Am/Joplin

• Lamar

Joplin – Metro ~175,000 people

Missouri American Water

Shoal Creek, 80 – 90%

Groundwater wells

Carl Junction – ~8000 people

100% Groundwater wells

Webb City – ~11,000 people

Mo Am water and groundwater

wells.

Springfield ~170,000

Springfield/Branson ~540,000

Divide between two basins

City Utilities Water Sources–

• Fullbright Spring

• James River

• McDaniel Lake

• Fellows Lake

• Stockton Lake

• 2 groundwater wells

• Valley Water Mill Reservoir

Fellows Lake is an 860-acre source of water for the city of Springfield, Missouri. The lake was created by the impoundment of the Little Sac River behind the Fellows Lake Dam. The dam was originally constructed in 1955 and modified in 1991.

Stockton Lake

*Wikipedia

McDaniel Lake is a 300-acre source of water for the city of Springfield, Missouri. It is currently owned and operated by City Utilities of Springfield as one of their public water supply sources. McDaniel Lake was created by impounding the Little Sac River in 1929, making it one of the oldest man-made dams in the area.

Water Supply – CU

Willard – ~5,500 people100% Groundwater wells.

Republic – ~16,000 people100% Groundwater wells.

Battlefield – ~6,000PWSD #1, Groundwater wells.

Nixa – ~21,000100% Groundwater wells (9).

Ozark – ~20,000100% Groundwater wells (19).

Branson – ~11,500 w 9 million visitors a year = 750,000 a month

5 to 7% Groundwater wells.

93-95% Surface water from Taneycomo.

All other Table Rock Area communities are 100% groundwater.

College of the Ozarks is the only exception. They have a small water plant that also pulls from Taneycomo.

BRANSON

Carthage – ~14,000 people

100% Groundwater wells (13).

Monett – ~9,000 people

100% Groundwater wells (12).

3 groundwater wells produce from

90% to 70% of the water, depending

on the time of year.

Mt. Vernon – ~5,000 people

100% Groundwater wells (7).

The former rehabilitation center has a

separate system containing 3 wells.

Stockton - ~2,000

100% Groundwater wells.

Three marinas. Hydropower is

generated at Stockton Lake.

Lamar – ~4,000 people

Lamar Lake

Groundwater well is used to pump

water into Lamar Lake when the lake

gets low.

Other Rural Areas –

100% groundwater wells

$$$

President Trump, 2018 State of the Union

speech, “…give us the safe, fast, reliable

and modern infrastructure our economy

needs and our people deserve.”

“A report by McKinsey & Company says that

a comprehensive fix would cost $1.8 trillion,

while the American Society of Civil

Engineers put the price tag at $2 trillion.

“All but $200 billion is supposed to come

from private investors.”

Funding Issues Ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/opinion/sotu-trump-infrastructure.html

Missouri is a water rich state, and we function under Riparian Law – the wild west of

water law. As other areas of the country become dryer, our water resources will

become more valuable and sought after.

Water = jobs. Water = commerce. Water will be an economic magnet, much like

inexpensive electricity or available broadband.

Affordable, quality water will be a big economic advantage and opportunity. How

should we be investing in wise water planning today, to maximize that opportunity

and to mitigate potential problems?

The Water Marketplace Under Riparian Law

Marketplace Issues Ahead

Two Big Hairy Audacious Goals

1. Secure additional water source(s)

for southwest Missouri.

2. Build infrastructure to deliver that

additional water supply to regional

communities

If Byzantium could do it, so can we!

Byzantium/Constantinople

Emperor Valens

400 mile aqueduct in the 300’s- Spfd to Dallas

We have been solving the problem of getting access to water

resources since civilization began.

Securing Water for Our Future