see public agenda survey january-february 2002 organized by international idea and seeds network

1

SEE Public Agenda Survey

January-February 2002Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS

NetworkMain findings of the quantitative

survey14 March 2002

2

Objectives• The aim is to conduct a research of public agenda in nine countries and territories in

South East Europe, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina - Federation BH, Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania.

• The purposes of this base line study of public agenda in the region are:To gain information on people’s attitudes, fears and expectation in the main

issues that concern their ongoing life and their future;To compare the findings between countries and territories;To draw the conclusions relevant for policy making and strategies for regional

development and democratization;To set up a database for a longer term public agenda tracking.

3

Public Agenda• In the current meaning:

– Public = sum of persons entitled to vote (usually 18 years and over)– Public Agenda = Issues, fears and concerns regarding the state, society and personal

position within them• PUBLIC AGENDA MAIN ISSUES:

– Governing the state– Economic bases of the social and individual life– Violence, crime, personal security– Politics– Corruption– Environmental issues– International institutions– Domestic institutions

4

Public Agenda Tracking

• A public opinion poll, conducted with the same questionnaire on independent national representative samples at regular intervals (usually 1-3 months)– Euro Barometer in Europe and associated countries

(www.europa.eu.int)

– BOP-in Romania (www.imas.ro)

– SMMRI Omnibus – PULS Omnibus

5

Organisational structure• Financed by the Norwegian Foreign Affairs

Ministry and International IDEA

• Incepted and supported by International IDEA

• Driven by local researchers and think tanks who have organized themselves as the South East Europe Democracy Support Network - SEEDS

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List of research institutes• Research Area Institute Pop/mill Sample• Bulgaria VITOSHA 8.5 1,148• B&H - Federation PULS 2.4 610• B&H - R.Srpska SMMRI/B&H 1.5 1,034• Croatia PULS 4.3 1,010 • Kosovo IS Pristina 2.2 1,017• Macedonia SMMRI/Skopje 1.9 1,031• Montenegro SMMRI 0.6 1,012• Romania IMAS 22.5 1,553• Serbia SMMRI 7.8 1,523

7

South Eastern Europe

8

OPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISMOPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISM

9

• Kosovo and Serbia show greatest optimism both in relation to one year ago and in the view of the future

• Bulgaria seems to see the present and the future mostly in dark light

10

Right direction of the country

In the right direction

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

Romania

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

Bulgaria

11

Personal economic situation: worse and better than one year ago

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Bulgaria

Montenegro

Macedonia

Romania

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

B&H - Federation

Croatia

Kosovo

WorseBetter

worse

12

Personal economic situation: satisfaction with the current level

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Kosovo

Croatia

Serbia

B&H - Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Macedonia

Romania

Bulgaria satisfaction

13

Personal economic situation: one year to come

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

Romania

Bulgaria

BetterWorse

14

Personal economic situation : 5 year expectations

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Kosovo

Serbia

Croatia

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H - Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Romania

Bulgaria

BetterWorse

15

PUBLIC ISSUESPUBLIC ISSUES

16

Public Agenda:National Issues• The list with national issues on the public agenda was drafted during

the Oslo Meeting (May 2000), and checked during the qualitative phase. Almost all issues look to be important for the SEE public, with notable differences.

• However a large gap between the political, intellectual and media elite - as they were captured during the qualitative phase - and the public are to be underlined. The elite is more focused on ethnic issues, historical disputes, and philosophical analysis, whilst the public is more concerned with unemployment, corruption, poverty, inflation and family income.

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Public Agenda Quantitative Measurement

• Unemployment• Corruption• Poverty• Crime• Inflation• Family income• Stability of the State• Drug and alcohol abuse

• Jobs for our children• My country’s acceptance into EU

and/or NATO• Legal system• Ethnic conflicts• Lack of morality• Welfare system• Inadequate bureaucracy

“There are many problems facing our country today. I'm going to hand you a card that lists some. Please pick and rank what you believe are the three most important issues”.

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• The three most important issues for SEE are: – unemployment, – poverty and – corruption.

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Public Issues: Summary

20

Public Issues: UnemploymentUnemployment

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

B&H - FederationKosovoCroatiaBulgaria

MacedoniaB&H - R. Srpska

SerbiaMontenegro

Romania

21

Public Issues: CorruptionCorruption

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

RomaniaB&H - R. SrpskaB&H - Federation

MontenegroMacedonia

SerbiaCroatiaKosovoBulgaria

22

Public Issues: PovertyPoverty

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BulgariaRomania

MacedoniaB&H - Federation

MontenegroKosovoCroatia

B&H - R. SrpskaSerbia

23

Public Issues: CrimeCrime

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Bulgaria

B&H - Federation

Kosovo

Croatia

Serbia

Macedonia

Romania

24

Public Issues: InflationRising prices/Inflation

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Romania

Bulgaria

Serbia

Montenegro

Kosovo

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H - Federation

Macedonia

25

Public Issues: Family IncomeFamily income

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

SerbiaBulgariaRomania

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

CroatiaB&H - Federation

Macedonia

26

PERSONAL FEARSPERSONAL FEARS

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Public Agenda: Personal Fears

• Personal fears (or potential threats to the personal life) are usually in the field of personal health, job security, future of children, pensions etc. When personal fears are almost the same as national issues, the public believe that their personal lives are profoundly affected by national policies.

• That is the case in all SEE countries.

“What do you fear the most in the present?”Open answer question-top of mind answer.

28

Personal Fears: Summary

29

Personal Fears: Poverty

Poverty, bad living standards, misery, hunger

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Romania

B&H - Federation

Serbia

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

Macedonia

Bulgaria

Kosovo

30

Personal Fears: Unemployment

Unemployment, lack of jobs

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Bulgaria

Serbia

Kosovo

Romania

Macedonia

B&H - R. Srpska

Montenegro

31

Personal Fears: Bad Political Situation

Bad political situation

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

B&H - R. SrpskaMontenegro

SerbiaRomania

MacedoniaCroatiaKosovo

B&H - FederationBulgaria

32

Personal Fears: WarWar, conflicts, terrorism, disasters, desintegration

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

MacedoniaKosovoBulgaria

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

SerbiaRomania

B&H - FederationCroatia

33

Personal Fears: CrimeCriminality, crime, violence

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

KosovoB&H - Federation

BulgariaCroatia

B&H - R. SrpskaSerbia

RomaniaMontenegroMacedonia

34

INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

35

KOSOVO

ROMANIA

B&H - FEDERATION MONTENEGR

OCROATIA

SERBIA B&H – REPUBLIC OF

SRPSKA

MACEDONIABULGARIA

GENERAL TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS

36

TRUST IN DOMESTIC TRUST IN DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

37

• Most trusted institutions in SEE are the Church, Army and Universities

• Parliaments, governments and courts are among the least trusted institutions

38

Church

Army

Universities

Presidency

Police

Mass media

Private entreprises

Government

Courts

Local authorities

Parliament

NGOs

Trade Unionc

BosniaBulgariaCroatiaKosovoMacedoniaMontenegroR. SrpskaSerbiaRomania

39

Trust in Institutions: ChurchTrust in Church

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

RomaniaB&H - R. Srpska

KosovoSerbia

CroatiaBulgaria

MacedoniaB&H -Federation

Montenegro

40

Trust in Institutions: PresidencyTrust in Presidency

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

KosovoBulgariaRomania

SerbiaCroatia

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

MacedoniaB&H -Federation

41

Trust in Institutions: ParliamentTrust in Parliament

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

KosovoRomania

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

CroatiaSerbia

BulgariaB&H -Federation

Macedonia

42

Trust in Institutions: GovernmentTrust in Government

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

KosovoRomania

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

BulgariaSerbia

CroatiaB&H -Federation

Macedonia

43

Trust in Institutions: Local Authorities

Trust in Local authorities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Croatia

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

44

Trust in Institutions: CourtsTrust in Courts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Kosovo

Romania

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

Bulgaria

45

Trust in Institutions: PoliceTrust in Police

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Kosovo

Romania

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

Croatia

Montenegro

Serbia

46

Trust in Institutions: ArmyTrust in Army

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

KosovoRomania

MacedoniaSerbia

B&H - R. SrpskaBulgaria

B&H -FederationCroatia

Montenegro

47

Trust in Institutions: Trade UnionsTrust in Trade Unions

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Kosovo

Romania

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H - R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Macedonia

Bulgaria

48

Trust in Institutions: NGOsTrust in NGOs

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Kosovo

Macedonia

Montenegro

Serbia

Romania

Croatia

B&H -Federation

B&H - R. Srpska

Bulgaria

49

Trust in Institutions: UniversitiesTrust in Universities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

KosovoRomania

B&H - R. SrpskaSerbia

MacedoniaCroatia

B&H -FederationMontenegro

Bulgaria

50

Trust in Institutions: Summary

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STEPS FORWARD...STEPS FORWARD...

52

Domestic Economy vs. International Integration

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60Domesticeconomyoriented(having astrongeconomy)

Internationalinstitutionsoriented(joiningEU,NATO orboth)

53

TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL PERSONALITIESPERSONALITIES

54

Kofi AnnanAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

Kosovo

Serbia

B&H -R. Srpska

MontenegroB&H -Federation

Croatia

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

55

George RobertsonAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

56

George W. BushAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

57

Vladimir PutinAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Kosovo

B&H -Federation

Serbia

Croatia

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Montenegro

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

58

Romano ProdiAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Montenegro

Croatia

Kosovo

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Trust Awareness

59

INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS

60

• The four most trusted institutions in SEE are EU, UN, the World Bank and NATO

61

TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

EU

UN

WB

NATO

ICTY

IMF

OSCE

WTO

SPSE B&H - FEDERATION BULGARIACROATIAKOSOVOMACEDONIAMONTENEGROB&H - R. SRPSKAROMANIASERBIA

62

EUAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

MontenegroB&H -Federation

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

63

UN Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

Croatia

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

64

WBAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

65

NATOAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

B&H -R. SrpskaMacedonia

Montenegro

CroatiaB&H -Federation

Bulgaria

RomaniaKosovo

Trust Awareness

66

ICTY (The Hague Tribunal)Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Macedonia

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

67

IMF Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Serbia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

Kosovo

Trust Awareness

68

OSCE Awareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

Serbia

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Croatia

Montenegro

B&H -Federation

Romania

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Trust Awarness

69

STABILITY PACTSTABILITY PACT

70

Stability Pact for SEEAwareness vs. Trust

0 20 40 60 80 100

SerbiaMacedonia

B&H -R. SrpskaCroatia

MontenegroB&H -Federation

KosovoRomaniaBulgaria

Trust Awareness

71

SPSEE AWARENESS - TRUST

72

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSINTERNATIONAL RELATIONSCooperation & ThreatsCooperation & Threats

73

COUNTRIES PREFERRED FOR COUNTRIES PREFERRED FOR COOPERATIONCOOPERATION

74Germany

Italy

Sweeden

Great Britain

France

Slovenia

Norway

United States

Hungary

Greece

Turkey

Russia

Croatia

Romania

B&H - Federation

Montenegro

Macedonia

Bulgaria

Serbia

B&H - R. Srpska

Albania

Kosovo

B&H - FEDERATION

BULGARIA

CROATIA

KOSOVO

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

B&H - R. SRPSKA

ROMANIA

SERBIA

75

COUNTRIES PERCEIVED AS A COUNTRIES PERCEIVED AS A THREATTHREAT

76

Albania

Kosovo

Serbia

United States

B&H - R. Srpska

Russia

Croatia

B&H - Federation

Turkey

Macedonia

Montenegro

Great Britain

Greece

Germany

Hungary

France

Bulgaria

Romania

Italy

Slovenia

Norway

Sweeden

B&H - FEDERATIONBULGARIACROATIAKOSOVOMACEDONIAMONTENEGROB&H - R. SRPSKAROMANIASERBIA

77

MASS MEDIAMASS MEDIA

78

Trust in Mass MediaTrust in Mass Media

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

RomaniaBulgariaKosovo

B&H -FederationB&H - R. Srpska

MacedoniaCroatiaSerbia

Montenegro

79

Perceived Mass Media Behaviour

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

CroatiaBulgariaSerbia

MontenegroB&H - R. Srpska

RomaniaB&H - Federation

MacedoniaKosovo

Reporting the truth Always/often Reporting the truth Sometimes/never

80

Mass Media: Perceived Independence

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

MacedoniaCroatia

B&H -R. SrpskaMontenegro

B&H - FederationSerbia

KosovoRomaniaBulgaria

Independent Non-independent

81

APPRECIATION OF PUBLIC APPRECIATION OF PUBLIC SERVICESSERVICES

82

PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMHealth system

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

BulgariaSerbia

Romania

B&H -R. SrpskaB&H -Federation

Macedonia

CroatiaMontenegro

Kosovo

83

PENSION FUNDSPension Fund

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

KosovoB&H -R. Srpska

BulgariaRomania

B&H -FederationSerbia

CroatiaMacedonia

Montenegro

84

EDUCATION SYSTEMEducation system

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Bulgaria

Serbia

Romania

B&H -Federation

Macedonia

B&H -R. Srpska

Croatia

Montenegro

Kosovo

85

HEATINGHeating

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Kosovo

Bulgaria

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Romania

Macedonia

Serbia

Croatia

86

WATER SUPPLYWater

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Romania

Macedonia

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

B&H -Federation

Bulgaria

Croatia

Serbia

87

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATIONPublic transportation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Bulgaria

Kosovo

Serbia

Montenegro

B&H -R. Srpska

Romania

Croatia

Macedonia

B&H -Federation

88

ELECTRICITYElectricity

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Kosovo

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

Macedonia

Croatia

Romania

B&H -Federation

B&H -R. Srpska

89

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Transport infrastructure

0 10 20 30 40 50

BulgariaSerbia

RomaniaKosovo

B&H -R. SrpskaB&H -Federation

MontenegroMacedonia

Croatia

90

SOCIAL CARESocial care

0 10 20 30 40 50

B&H -R. SrpskaBulgaria

B&H -FederationSerbia

RomaniaMacedonia

MontenegroKosovoCroatia

91

POLICEPolice

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Serbia

Montenegro

Bulgaria

Romania

B&H -R. Srpska

Macedonia

Croatia

B&H -Federation

Kosovo