seismic zonation: a policy tool that facilitates earthquake resilience walter hays, global alliance...

SEISMIC ZONATION: A POLICY TOOL THAT

FACILITATES EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

SEISMIC ZONATION: A POLICY TOOL THAT

FACILITATES EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

SEIMIC ZONATION IS A POLICY TOOL FOR SEIMIC ZONATION IS A POLICY TOOL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE

SEIMIC ZONATION IS A POLICY TOOL FOR SEIMIC ZONATION IS A POLICY TOOL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE

EDUCATION

PUBLIC-STAKE-HOLDER INTER-ACTION

ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE

COMMUNITY EQUITY AND EMPOWERMENT

A GOAL OF DISASTER RESILIECE

FOUNDATIONS OF SEISMIC ZONATION

FOUNDATIONS OF SEISMIC ZONATION

SEISMIC ZONATION IS A KNOWLEDGE

MANAGEMENT TOOL THAT FACILITATES ADOPTION OF

POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES TO PROTECT PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

SEISMIC ZONATION IS A KNOWLEDGE

MANAGEMENT TOOL THAT FACILITATES ADOPTION OF

POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES TO PROTECT PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

QUAKE LAKES

AFTERSHOCKS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL-STRUCTURE RESONANCE

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

LACK OF DETAILING/POOR CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL

EXPOSURE MODELVULNERABILTY

MODEL

SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

RESISTANCE TO LATERAL FORCES

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE

POLITICAL PROCESS

ACCEPTABLE RISK

BENEFIT/ COSTS

EXPERIENCE AND RESEARCH

DAMAGE ALGORITHM

INCORPORATE NEW KNOWLEDGE

INSPECTION AND REGULATION

AN EARTHQUAKE AN EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT CITY RESILIENT CITY

AN EARTHQUAKE AN EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT CITY RESILIENT CITY

SEISMIC ZONATION: SEISMIC ZONATION: A POLICY TOOL A POLICY TOOL

SEISMIC ZONATION: SEISMIC ZONATION: A POLICY TOOL A POLICY TOOL

SEISMIC ZONATION: INCREASES PROTECTION OF

PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND INFRASTRUCTURE

WHEN IMPLEMENTED BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE STRIKES

SEISMIC ZONATION: INCREASES PROTECTION OF

PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND INFRASTRUCTURE

WHEN IMPLEMENTED BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE STRIKES

POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS:

RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES

• PROTECTION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• RELOCATION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS:

RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES

• PROTECTION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• RELOCATION

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

SEISMIC ZONATION CAN GUIDE ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF BEST PRACTICES

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER STUDIES

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER STUDIES

RESEARCHRESEARCH

YOUR YOUR CITY CITYYOUR YOUR CITY CITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

SESMIC ZONATIONSESMIC ZONATION

•MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICIES/BEST PRACTICES POLICIES/BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEFOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

SEISMIC ZONATION: ENSURES EARTHQUAKE

RESILIENCE WHEN IMPLEMENTED

DURING POST-EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION

SEISMIC ZONATION: ENSURES EARTHQUAKE

RESILIENCE WHEN IMPLEMENTED

DURING POST-EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION

EXAMPLES OF PAST EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

• APRIORI IMPLEMENTATION OF SEISMIC ZONATION AS A KNOWLEDGE MANAGE-MENT TOOL WOULD HAVE SAVED OVER 1 MILLION LIVES AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

HAITI- 2010: $ BILLIONS IN LOSSES AND DEATH TOLL OVER 200 THOUSAND

SICHUAN, CHINA: 2008

• LOSS OF HOPE COULD EASILY HAPPEN DURING THE HUGE RECONSTRUCTION PROJECT NOW FACING CHINA.

ICA, PERU; 2007

SOLOMON ISLANDS: 2007

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN; 2005

BAM, IRAN; 2003

KOACELI, TURKEY; 1999

The Kocaeli(Turkey) Earthquakeof 17 August 1999

KOBE, JAPAN; 1995

ERZICAN, TURKEY; 1992

SPITAK, ARMENIA; 1988

MEXICO, 1985MEXICO, 1985

MEXICO, 1985 MEXICO, 1985

TANGSHAN, CHINA; 1976

NIIGATA, JAPAN; 1964

KANTO-TOKYO, 1923

SAN FRANCISCO, 1906

CREATING GLOBAL TURNING POINTS FOR EARTHQUAKE

RESILIENCE AND OTHER COUNTRIES

INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS INTO BEST PRACTICES

ATIOIN AND MONITORING CREATING EQUITY EARTHQUAKE

SUSTAINABILITY ON A GLOBAL SCALE

PRINCIPLES THAT WILL MAKE SEISMIC ZONATION AN

EFFECTIVE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

TOOL IN THEFUTURE

PRINCIPLES THAT WILL MAKE SEISMIC ZONATION AN

EFFECTIVE GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

TOOL IN THEFUTURE

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINT

• GOVERNMENTS PROVIDING THE BEST POSSIBLE DISASTER RESILIENCE FOR THEIR PEOPLE AT RISK

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES• TURNING POINT

• KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IS AN INTER-ACTIVE PROCESS AMONG THE INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED IN IT

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES• EACH

COMMUNITY REDUCING ITS IGNORANCE, APATHY, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • EACH

COMMUNITY FORMULATING STRATEGIES TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS• MANDATED

DESIGNS TO PROTECT PEOPLE, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND LIVELI-HOODS.

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS

• EMPOWERED AND ENABLED PROFESSIONALS AND POLICY MAKERS AT COMMUNITY AND NATIONAL LEVELS

BARRIERS TO SUCCESS

INEVITABLE OBSTACLES

• COMMUNITIES UNABLE TO OVERCOME IGNORANCE, APATHY, ORGANIZATIONAL BOUNDARIES, AND LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

GOAL:GOAL: CREATING CHANGE FOR A CULTURE CREATING CHANGE FOR A CULTURE OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

GOAL:GOAL: CREATING CHANGE FOR A CULTURE CREATING CHANGE FOR A CULTURE OF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCEOF EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

EDUCATION

FROM IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT

FROM APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT

FROM BOUNDARIES TO SEAMLESS

FROM LACK OF POLITICAL WILL TO ENABLEMENT

CRITICAL CHANGES CRITICAL CHANGES

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES• TURNING

POINTS• IGNORANCE IS

TRANSFORMED INTO ENLIGHTEN-MENT

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES• TURNING

POINTS• APATHY IS

TRANSFORMED INTO EMPOWERMENT

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS

• DISCIPLINARY AND POLITICAL BOUNDARIES ARE TRANSFORMED INTO SEAMLESS, ENFICHED UNIVERSES

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS• LACK OF

POLITICAL WILL IS TRANSFORMED INTO POLITICAL ENABLEMENT THAT PRODUCES SUCCESS STORIES

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES• TURNING

POINTS• COOPERATION,

COMMUNICATION, COORDINATION, AND COLLAB-ORATION IS THE NORM IN ALL COMMUNITIES

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS

• COMMUNITIES OF DEVELOPED NATIONS ASSISTING COMMUNITIES IN LESS DEVELOPED NATIONS

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

• PRINCIPLES • TURNING POINTS

• A CONTINUING DIALOGUE ON THE PROBLEMS AND THE SOLUTIONS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE