september 2009 harrisonburg & rockingham county real estate market report
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
1/16
September 2009
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Real Estate Market Report
and Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker,
Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors
provided courtesy of
October 8, 2009
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Perhaps as a result of the $8,000 tax credit, this month we see that home sales
were not as low as could be expected given the year-to-date trends. During the rst
nine months of this year, we have seen an overall decline of 21% in home sales, yetSeptember 2009 versus September 2008 only shows a 11% decline. Furthermore,
both the median sales price and average sales price increased when comparing
September 2009 sales to September 2008 sales. The year-to-date median and
average sales prices are sll showing declines (4%, 2%), so we wont call this a trendyet -- but hopefully a sign of posive changes to come.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County October 8, 2009
# Home Sales 2008 2009 % Change
September 80 71 -11.25%
Year To Date 762 603 -20.87%
762
603
2008 2009
Median Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change
September $199,942 $203,000 1.53%
Year To Date $197,900 $190,000 -3.99%
$198k $189k
2008 2009
Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change
September $216,034 $219,781 1.73%
Year To Date $223,704 $219,956 -1.68%
$225k $220k
Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change
September 200 219 9.50%
Year To Date 167 189 13.17%
157190
2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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October 8, 2009
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Between 2005 and 2008, sales declined an average of 28% between August and
September. This year, however, we have only seen an 8% decline in home sales.
This, again, is likely an elevated number of home sales related to the $8,000 taxcredit to rst me home buyers. The deadline for closing on a home as a rst me
buyer to receive the $8,000 tax credit is November 30th, thus we will likely connue
to see relavely strong sales through October and November, at least in the lower
price ranges, and as compared to previous years. Within the next month we shouldalso know whether Congress will extend this tax credit.
200
Month-By-Month Home Sales History
2005
2006
1752007
2008
2009
125
150
CondoSales
95
100
,Townhom
e
57
75
86
77
71
50
75
SingleFamil
37
51
25
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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October 8, 2009
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This graph tracks the overall pace of home sales in our market, aer eliminang
the seasonal increases and decreases that we always experience regardless of
the annual pace of sales. Each data point on this graph represents the sum of theprevious 12 months of home sales, thus the most recent data point is showing the
total number of home sales between October 1, 2008 and September 30, 2009.
Home sales connue to decline when examined from this perspecve, and I predict
that we may see several more months of declines before this trendline (hopefully)stabilizes and starts to slowly increase.
1,800
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All HomesSum of Preceding 12 Months
1,600
1,200
,
800
1,000
600
200
400
0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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October 8, 2009
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This graph provides excellent overall insight into the performance of the residenal
real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We see, via the yellow
bars, that the pace of home sales will likely again show a decline when 2009 drawsto a close, though we are not likely to see another 25% decline as we experienced
between 2007 and 2008. The median sales price, shown with the blue line, connues
to stay relavely stable, though with a slight decrease when comparing 2008 and
2009. This decrease is actually a bit larger when considering the changes in thecontext of moderate year to year inaon.
$250,0001,800
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes
1,507
1,669
1,438$195,
100
$195,
500
$190,
000
$200,000
1,600
+14%
+11%
-14%
+1% +0.2%
1,071
1,153
1,324
1,248
,900
$192,
983
1,200
,-13%
-25%
+15%
+8%
+14%
+14%
829
936
0 ,900
,588
7,
700 $
149,
00
0 $169 ,
800
1,000+29%
+6%
-0.3% +4%
+17%
603$116,
0
$122
$122
$12 $100,000
600
$50,000
200
400
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Single family homes connue to show a moderate decline in median sales price, as
shown by the blue line in this graph. We have now seen an overall decline of 7.8%
between 2006 and 2009 year-to-date. This averages out to an approximate 2.5%decline per year during this me frame. This decline is unfortunate for home owners,
but is quite mild within the context of sales price and value declines seen in most
other parts of Virginia and the naon as a whole. The pace of single family homes
also connues to slow, with only 412 home sales thus far this year, as compared tothe total of 654 sales in 2008.
$275,0001,200
Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes
1,024 1,025 $226,8
00
$223,
57
5
$215,
000
$209,
000
$225,0001,000+16%
n/a-11% -1% -4%
868851
880
798
0
$210,
000
$175,000800
-12%
-18%
+3%-2%
+29%
+24%
+
674654
,850
133,
239
136,
000
$147,
000 $1
70,
0
$125,000600+9%
+2%+8%
+16%
412$122 $
$75,000400
$25,000200
-$25,0000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Between 2006 and 2008, townhomes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County
managed to escape the general sales price declines seen in the overall residenal
market. However, it appears that there will be a small downward shi in this medianhome price by the me 2009 comes to a close. Thankfully, however, there has been a
relavely small year-to-year shi in the number of townhomes in 2009 compared to
2008. This is in contrast to the staggering 37% decline in townhome sales between
2007 and 2008. This may be related to the $8,000 tax credit for rst me homebuyers, as many rst me buyers purchase townhomes.
0
700
Home Sales & Price Trends
Townhomes
644
$160,
85
0
$163,8
00
$167,
25
$163,
000
$160,000
$180,000
600
+33% +19%
+2%+2%
444
483
450
,100
4,
950
$120,000
$140,000500
+9%
-18% -15%
+14%
302282
$89,0
00
$94
,600
$10
$108,
200
$118,5
00 $
1
$100,000
300
400
-37%
+47%
+6%
+9%
+5%+10%
155
203191 $60,000
,
200
+49%
+31%
$20,000
$40,000
100
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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While our local market sll has an excess of supply of homes for sale (as shown on
the next page), we do sll see a decline in overall inventory levels when comparing
September 2009 to September 2008. Ulmately, however, we will need to see moreof a decline to return to a closer balance between buyers and sellers. If last years
trend is any indicaon, we should start to see steady declines in inventory as we
move through October, November, December and January -- as many homeowners
decide to take their homes o the market during this me frame. This will mean(perhaps only marginally) fewer choices for buyers.
1200
Inventory Levels
944
909888
932 928 932904
917 914
1000
866
828
794
838
800
600
400
200
0
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Another measurement of value over me is shown in the median price per square
foot of single family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- pictured
above. As can be seen, this value has gradually shied down since 2006, as we sawin the median sales price of single family homes during this same me period. This
is not an absolute guide on what to expect to pay for a house in todays market, since
this median value includes new homes, very old homes, homes with and without
basements and garages, and many other variaons of homes that could aect theoversimplied value judgement of price per square foot.
$150.00
Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes
$113 $
119
$123
$126
$13
0
$13
1
$125
$129
$128
$127
$126
$125
$126
$121
$115
$116
$120
$117
$125.00
24 3 $
86
$87
$92
$90
$96
$99
$105
$105
$100.00
$
76
$73
$73
$73
$
76
$77
$7
4 $78
$79
$80
$8 $ $
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Expect to pay a bit more per square foot for smaller homes --- it has been that way
for almost 10 years now. The graph above shows how median price per square foot
varies based on the size of the house in queson. Interesngly, the median price persquare foot of mid-sized and large homes have remained relavely closely paired
over the past nine years, but have separated quite dramacally over the past year.
Price per square foot of the largest homes in our market is now just over $100 per
square foot, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes is muchcloser to the overall median value for this metric.
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
0 - 1 ,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
$138$140
$133
140
150
$123
$128
$123 $123
$116
$120
$122120
130
$105
$113
$106
$119
$115
$105
110
$84
$89
$93
$84
$94
$9290
$77
$71
$74
$77
$71 $72
$83
70
80
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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The graph above illustrates the drasc decrease in lot sales that our local market
has experienced over the past several years. With lot sizes smaller than one acre,
most of these lots are in subdivisions, on public water and sewer. The main causefor this drasc decrease is that new construcon has slowed -- most builders are no
longer buying building lots and building houses speculavely. Furthermore, many lot
end users are no longer considering building, because of changing circumstances
with their nances, or because of general economic and market uncertaines. Thedecrease in median lot prices is not surprising, given the large decrease in sales.
$120,000450
Lot Sales & Median Prices
less than 1 acre
408
$99,
900
$100,000
400
261
304
$76,
500
,250
$80,000300
201
247
,000
$54,5
00
$58,
300
$6
$60,000
200
250
165
111$26,
000
$30,
500
$32,
208
$36,
900
$42
$40,000150
8574
30
$20,000
50
100
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Land sales of parcels larger than one acre have not decreased as signicantly as
small lot sales have. We connue to see a decline, but aside from the spike in land
sales in 2005, there has always been quite a bit of variaon in the number of landsales happening in a given year. Of note, however, the median price per acre of the
land that is selling has slipped tremendously over the past two years, from a high
of $24k per acre down to the current level of $15k per acre. This is likely to slip a
bit further if land sales connue to decline, or even if they connue to stay at theircurrent low level.
$30,000180
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre
1 acre or more
168
$24,
184
250
$25,000
160
107 $17,
713
0
$21,
24
$20,000120
87
76 77
83
$12,
003
$15,
00
$15,
4
$15,000
80
100
58
42
53$8,
245
$8,
333
$9,
535
$10,00060
30$8,
234
$5,000
20
40
$00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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This graph isolates new or almost new single family homes that have sold for each of
the past ten years. We have seen a steady decline in the number of new construcon
single family homes selling since 2005, but of note, the median price per square footof these homes has not shied as much as we might otherwise expect. While this
metric includes houses with signicant variaon in their characteriscs (basement,
garage, lot size), this price per square foot metric can likely be a helpful rule of thumb
in discussing price per square foot or building costs with a builder.
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
200
New Construction Single Family Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
186
158
200
160
180
138 137
121
140 139
$150
146
$144
$138
150140
89
109
05 $
114
$133
$
100
100
56
$87 $
94 $
9 $
60
80
50
20
40
00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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Most homes that sell (62%) are selling (and closing) within six months of coming
onto the market. This, of course, does not factor in the many (many) homes that
languish on the market and do not sell -- leading to a higher average days on marketstasc. Given that it typically takes 45 - 60 days to move from a raed contract to
the closing table, it is quite remarkable that a full 30% of home sales in the past six
months have taken place within 3 months of the date when those properes came
on the market. This means that they were under contract within the rst 30 or 45days of being listed, which is likely a surprising gure for many hopeful sellers.
Harrison urg Roc ing am County
Days on Market Analysis
Residential Listings Sold Apr '09 - Sept '09
1 - 2 years
< 2 years
4
1%
0 - 3 months
139
30%9 - 12 months
12%
10%
6 - 9 months
67
15%
3 - 6 months
147
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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8/14/2019 September 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
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October 8, 2009
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The me that it takes to sell a home in todays market varies quite signicantly based
on the price range of the home in queson. For example, a full 37% of homes that
sold for less than $200,000 sold in the rst 90 days of being on the market, whileonly 7% of homes between $300,000 and $400,000 were able to sell in that same
me period. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of homes that sold for less
than $200,000 took more than a year to sell, but a full 26% of homes priced over
$400,000 took over a year to sell.
Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeApril 2009 - September 2009
0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years
31% 32% 15% 10% 12%All Homes
37% 31% 13% 11% 9%Under $200k
27% 33% 17% 6% 14% 2%$200k - $300k
7% 40% 24% 14% 14%$300k - $400k
26% 26% 7% 15% 26%$400k and up
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Sco P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors . Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.
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