setting the context. introduction welcome & acknowledgement background workshops action plan...

Setting the context

Introduction

Welcome & Acknowledgement

Background

• Workshops action plan

• General Manager’s support

Housekeeping

• Facilities, OH&S, Turn off mobiles

[Insert Council logo]

Purpose• Developing a Climate Change Action Plan

Program• Keeping to time • Respectful discussion• Climate change deniers?

IntroductionsEvaluation forms

Introduction

Progress

Gain internal support

Gain internal support

Steering Committee Meeting 1-Develop a planning program

Steering Committee Meeting 1-Develop a planning program

Workshop 1-Introduction Workshop 1

-Introduction

Steering Committee Meeting 2-Research adaptation options

Steering Committee Meeting 2-Research adaptation options

Steering CommitteeMeeting 4 -Action plan

Steering CommitteeMeeting 4 -Action plan

Steering CommitteeMeeting 5 -Review

Steering CommitteeMeeting 5 -Review

Steering Committee Meeting 3 -MitigationSteering Committee

Meeting 3 -MitigationWorkshop 4

-Mitigation actions

Workshop 4-Mitigation actions

Identify Planning Team

Identify Planning Team

Workshop 2-Risk assessment

Workshop 2-Risk assessment

Workshop 3-Adaptation

actions

Workshop 3-Adaptation

actions

Expected outcomes

Participants will :• Understand sources of uncertainty for projections • Appreciate projected impacts for the region• Describe potential impacts for the LGA and council • Record likely impacts, assumptions and decisions

Projections

Projections based on modelling by the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• IPCC assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information

• 2,500 scientific expert reviewers for Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Rajendra Pachauri, Then Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2009. Photo by the UN.

Uncertainty of projections

Climate change projections are not certain.

Projections are uncertain because:• Future emissions are unknown• The relationship between the level of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere & global warming is uncertain

• The link between global warming & localised climate change is uncertain

Uncertainty should not stop action

Councils should apply the precautionary principle and not use lack of certainty as an excuse to delay action planning:

Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. Principle 15 of the ‘Rio Declaration on Environment and Development’ United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio, 1992.

Source: Environmental Defenders Office http://www.edo.org.au/edosa/publications/newsletter/edo%20newsletter%20october%202005.htm

Managing uncertainty

• Uncertainty can be managed by regularly updating climate change action plans

(i.e. adaptive management)• Risk assessment and adaptation planning should

be completed based on projected trends and revisited rather than setting permanent values

Projections could be conservative

• Actual emissions are at the upper end of all projections

Steffen, W. 2009

Temperature projections

Likely impact - NSW Source

Temperature Year: Projection:

Likely impact – This Region Source

Temperature Year: Projection:

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Rainfall projections

Likely impact - NSW Source

Summer Rainfall

Year: Projection:

Winter Rainfall

Year: Projection:

Likely impact – This Region Source

Summer Rainfall

Year: Projection:

Winter Rainfall

Year: Projection:

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Projected extreme events

Likely impact - NSW Source

Extreme Rainfall

Year: Projection:

Storm surge Year: Projection:

Days over 35°C

Year: Projection:

Cyclones Year: Projection:

Fire days Year: Projection:

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

Projected sea level rise

Likely impact - NSW Source

Sea level rise

2030: +17cm CSIRO 2006

Sea level rise

2050: +40cm2100: +90cm

DECCW 2009

Damage to beach access, Wooli, May 2009 (Photo by Scott Lenton)

Current and Projected Climate Change in the Catchment Area – Temperature (CSIRO, 2007)

1990 2030 2070

Average (deg C)

No. days below

0 deg C

No. days above 35 deg C

No. days above 40 deg C

Current and Projected Climate Change in the Catchment Area – Rainfall (CSIRO, 2007)

1990 2030 2070

Annual average (mm)

Extreme rainfall

Evaporation

No. droughts per decade

Local example

Social information

Stakeholders

• Consulting:

• Informing:

• Any questions?

Exercise

How climate change may impact on CouncilSpecifically, impacts on:• Service delivery• Related services and service providers • Personnel• General public• Systems and equipment• Administration and support

Exercise – ‘Drawing out the Impacts’

• Consider a specific point in the future (e.g. 2030, 2050, 2070)• Think laterally• On the maps, draw how projected

climate changes may impact the LGA• Record your assumptions and

decisions in the template• Present your map • Develop a list of agreed impacts

Agreed impacts

Achievements from the workshop

During the workshop we have:• Described how climate change will impact the

LGA and council• Recorded our assumptions and decisions• Developed a list of agreed impacts as a group

that can be used in the risk assessment workshop

Conclusion

• Thank you

• Evaluation forms

References

• IPCC, 2000, Special Report: Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf

(visited December, 2009)• IPCC, 2009, http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm

(visited December, 2009)• Rio Declaration on Environment and Development 1992

http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=78&ArticleID=1163 (visited December, 2009)

• Steffen, W., 2009 Climate Change 2009: Faster Change & More Serious Risks.

http://www.anu.edu.au/climatechange/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/climate-change-faster-change-and-more-serious-risks-final.pdf (visited December, 2009)