solar subgroup - unece · 1.2m new electric & plug-in hybrid vehicle les (global) om. solar...
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Solar SubgroupProgress
Context
Renewable energy capacity is growing rapidly
But intermittency remains a technical
challenge
New storage promises to help address intermittency
Transport energy demand is changing and will require more electricity
2001 2009 2013
0
50
Rat
ed p
ow
er (
GW
)
2005 2017
0
140
Cap
acit
y (G
W)
New renewable energy capacity(global)
New storage capacity(global)
0
1.2m New electric & plug-in hybrid vehicle(global)
Nu
mb
er o
f ve
hic
les
Sou
rces
: IR
ENA
, DO
E, E
Vvo
lum
es.c
om
Solar energy is used for heating, lighting, electricity generation, and other uses
Solar PV generates a small fraction of global
electricity
Sou
rce:
REN
21
Gig
awat
ts
0
100
200
300
2006 20162011
Solar photovoltaic capacity(global)
Solar PV is growing rapidly
and consistently surpasses projections by international
organisations
2006 201620110
12
Gig
awat
t-h
ou
rs
Concentrating solar power thermal storage capacity
(global)
6
2006 201620110
500
Gig
awat
ts-t
her
mal
Solar water heating collectors capacity
(global)
250
CSP and solar water heating are also growing rapidly
Sou
rce:
REN
21
Solar energy promises to be an increasingly important resource
As such, the Solar Subgroup are proud
to present
draft Solar
Specifications
Available online for review and testing by the Expert Group on Resource Classification
So what’s in the Solar Specifications?
Core elements
Solar reserves and resources classification
UNFC categories
Applications
Based on the simplified table from the UNFC 2009 and a renewable energy
project model
E, F and G categories using solar terms
Business, finance and government uses for the Solar Specifications
Annexes show solar resources have been classified before
The preface and introduction put the Solar Specifications in context acknowledging previous work
Solar reserves and resources classification
What are solarreserves and resources?
Sun= Useful energy
(measured at the reference point)
Reference point
TechnologyIr
rad
iati
on
Reserves
Project site
= Potentially useful energy(estimated at the reference point)
ResourcesPotentially accessible energy and projects
at various stages of development
Operational, pre-operational and designed projects
Irradiation is the energy from the sun that reaches earth’s surface
The reference point is the place where quantities of useful energy are measured and estimated
Solar irradiation: The quantity of energy arriving from the sun over a specified period of time
Energy technically not possible, or cost effective, to use with current technologies
Energy technically possible and cost effective to use (e.g. heat, light, solar PV, CSP, etc)
Inaccessible Potentially accessible Pre-development Development
Resources: Anticipated useful energy at sites, under various levels of investigation and
development, where solar energy could be utilised cost effectively.
Reserves: Anticipated useful energy for commercially
operational, pre-operational or designed solar projects
Pre-operational OperationalDesigned project
Sun
Increasing socio-economic viability and project feasibility
Solar reserves and resources are classified using a two
dimensional table
The socio-economic viability and project feasibility axes were joined into a single vertical axis
Solar energy categories and sub-
categoriesDefinitions
Confidence of useful energy estimate*
P90 P50 P10
Units of energy Units of energy Units of energy
- - Commercial operation end date - -
Reserves Operational Useful energy, over the remaining project lifespan, at sites with
technology to utilise solar energy. The utilisation of useful solar energy is
currently taking place and is economic on the basis of current market
conditions and realistic assumptions of future market conditions.
- - Commercial operation date - -Pre-operational Useful energy, over the project lifespan, at sites that are approved for
development and are under construction or are waiting to be constructed.
- - Financial close - -Designed Useful energy, over the project lifespan, at sites where a project has
been designed and entitlements secured but finance is still required.
- - Entitlements - -
Resources Under development Useful energy at sites where projects being designed but are yet to get
project finance.
Pre-development Useful energy at sites that are being investigated but are yet to be justified for development.
- - Decision to investigate - -Potentially accessible Useful energy at sites that could potentially be developed, but for
whatever reason are not currently being investigated for development.
Inaccessible Useful energy that technically could be utilised at reasonable cost (i.e. economically), but for whatever reason, is not available for use. Reasons could include: a lack of market access, regulations, a lack of infrastructure, or a lack of users to utilise the energy.
- - Technically possible and cost effective to use - -
*Assessment period (years): e.g. project lifetime or the set period for a national assessment
Solar Reserves and Resources Classification
Solar energy categories and sub-
categoriesDefinitions
Confidence of useful energy estimate*
P90 P50 P10
Units of energy Units of energy Units of energy
- - Commercial operation end date - -
Reserves Operational Useful energy, over the remaining project lifespan, at sites with
technology to utilise solar energy. The utilisation of useful solar energy is
currently taking place and is economic on the basis of current market
conditions and realistic assumptions of future market conditions.
- - Commercial operation date - -Pre-operational Useful energy, over the project lifespan, at sites that are approved for
development and are under construction or are waiting to be constructed.
- - Financial close - -Designed Useful energy, over the project lifespan, at sites where a project has
been designed and entitlements secured but finance is still required.
- - Entitlements - -
Resources Under development Useful energy at sites where projects being designed but are yet to get
project finance.
Pre-development Useful energy at sites that are being investigated but are yet to be justified for development.
- - Decision to investigate - -Potentially accessible Useful energy at sites that could potentially be developed, but for
whatever reason are not currently being investigated for development.
Inaccessible Useful energy that technically could be utilised at reasonable cost (i.e. economically), but for whatever reason, is not available for use. Reasons could include: a lack of market access, regulations, a lack of infrastructure, or a lack of users to utilise the energy.
- - Technically possible and cost effective to use - -
*Assessment period (years): e.g. project lifetime or the set period for a national assessment
Solar Reserves and Resources Classification
Soci
o-e
con
om
ic v
iab
ility
an
d
pro
ject
fea
sib
ility
G-Axis
Milestones
Socio-economic viability and project feasibility categories
Confidence of the estimates
The solar reserves and resources classification was
based on the simplified table from the UNFC 2009
...combined with key steps and milestones from a solar energy project cycle
Project development equity capital
Fin
anci
al c
lose
Pre-development Development
Feasibility ConceptDesign and permitting
Finaldesign
Financing
Pre-operational solar project
Operational solar project
Co
mm
erc
ial i
nve
stig
atio
n
Co
mm
erc
ial o
per
atio
n d
ate
Co
mm
erc
ial o
per
atio
n e
nd
dat
eRepay financiers and investors
Potentially accessible resources
Inaccessible resources
Solar resources Solar reserves
total useful energy = annual energy x lifetimeEn
titl
eme
nts
The solar energy project cycle was modified from a renewable energy project model published by NREL (Springer 2013)
Risk, knowledge and uncertainty are key issues in the NREL publication
Project development equity capital
Fin
anci
al c
lose
Pre-development Development
Feasibility ConceptDesign and permitting
Finaldesign
Financing
Pre-operational solar project
Operational solar project
Co
mm
erc
ial i
nve
stig
atio
n
Co
mm
erc
ial o
per
atio
n d
ate
Co
mm
erc
ial o
per
atio
n e
nd
dat
eRepay financiers and investors
Potentially accessible resources
Inaccessible resources
Solar resources Solar reserves
total useful energy = annual energy x lifetimeEn
titl
eme
nts
Time
Less
Mo
re
Unknowns
Risk
By linking to the solar project cycle, we aim to keep the Solar
Specifications practical
This includes being practical for project developers and opening possibilities related to finance
UNFC categories
The UNFC sometimes uses terms that are not relevant to solar energy
We modified the definitions so that
they would be meaningful in the context of solar
We also put the UNFC and solar definitions side by side in tables
so they can be compared
Extraction and sale is economic on thebasis of current market conditions andrealistic assumptions of future marketconditions.
The utilisation of useful solar energy is economic on the basis of current market conditions and realistic assumptions of future market conditions.
UN Framework Classification Solar Specifications
E1 Definition
“Extraction” is a word not commonly used in solar or
renewable energy
A lot of solar energy is own use
The Solar Specifications use the term “utilisation”
Feasibility of extraction by a defineddevelopment project or miningoperation has been confirmed.
Feasibility of solar energy utilisation by a defined solar project has been confirmed.
UN Framework Classification Solar Specifications
F1 Definition
“Extraction” and “mining” are words not commonly used in
solar or renewable energy
The Solar Specifications use the term “solar project” instead of
“mining operation”
Quantities associated with a knowndeposit that can be estimated with ahigh level of confidence.
UN Framework Classification
G1 Definition
“Quantities” refers to “quantities of a resource” but the solar energy community use the term
“resource” differently from the UNFC.
“Deposit” is a word not commonly used in solar
or renewable energy
Quantities associated with a knowndeposit that can be estimated with ahigh level of confidence.
Quantities of useful solar energy associated with a project that can be estimated with a high level of confidence (e.g. P90).
UN Framework Classification Solar Specifications
G1 Definition
The Solar Specifications use the terms “useful energy” and “useful solar energy”
In the solar community, the term “resource” means the total amount
of energy reaching a site on the earth’s surface
Footnote from page 11The Solar Specifications
highlight the difference in usage of the term “resource”
for example in the footnote on page 11, and by providing
definitions
Some of the terms used in UNFC definitions, such as “extraction”, “mining”, or “deposit” may be problematic to acceptance and uptake of the
UNFC by the solar energy community
This raises questions around what terms and definitions should be used in the UNFC,
renewable specifications and other UNFC related documents
Perhaps the UNFC, renewable specifications and other UNFC documents could use generalised
language that is meaningful and applicable to as many users as possible
Applications
Applications of the Solar Specifications include supporting business and government information cycles
Estimate the quantity of useful energy from a project or possible project
Collect data and information on solar projects and possible solar projects
2. Calculation
1. Collection
6. Reporting
Present the data and report to decision makers
7. Decisions
9. Changes
8. Implementation
Changes in projects, access to sites, markets, technology, as well as changes in regulations and competition
Implementation of solar development projects, other related investments and the acquisition of legal and social permits
Decisions made regarding projects, investments and next steps
5. Control
Check data quality and ensure information has been classified correctly
Classify useful energy estimates into solar reserves and resources categories
3. Classification
Business information cycle applying the Solar Specifications Business decision cycle
4. Compilation
Add useful energy estimates for solar reserves and resources categories
Estimate the quantity of useful energy from a project or possible project
Collect data and information on solar projects and possible solar projects
2. Calculation
1. Collection
6. Reporting
Present the data and report to decision makers
9. Changes
8. Implementation
Changes in projects, access to sites, markets, technology, as well as changes in regulations and competition
Implementation of solar development projects, other related investments and the acquisition of legal and social permits
5. Control
Check data quality and ensure information has been classified correctly
Classify useful energy estimates into solar reserves and resources categories
3. Classification
Business information cycle applying the Solar Specifications Business decision cycle
4. Compilation
Add useful energy estimates for solar reserves and resources categories
Ap
plicatio
n o
f the So
lar Specificatio
ns
Decisions made regarding projects, investments and next steps
Developer Financier
Financiers and developers
7. Decisions
The Solar Specifications could be used by developers to apply for project finance
The Solar Specifications could be used by financiers as
criteria for project finance
Reserves Criteria
Finance
Op
erat
ion
s
The government information cycle is similar to the business information cycle but is
focused on policy
Estimate the quantities of useful energy from existing and potential projects and fill data gaps using estimates made using GIS, taking into account infrastructure and policy requirements
Collect data and information on solar projects through administrative data (e.g. related to permits), by survey, from industry associations and from research organisations
2. Calculation
1. Collection
6. Reporting
Present the data and report to government and the public
8. Decisions
10. Changes
9. Implementation
Changes in projects, access to sites, markets, technology, as well as changes in regulations and competition
Implementation of policies and interventions including infrastructure investment, taxes, subsidies, and tariffs, and regulations
Decisions made regarding energy policies and interventions
5. Control
Check data quality and ensure information has been classified correctly
Classify useful energy estimates directly into reserves and resources categories
3. Classification
Government information cycle applying the Solar Specifications Policy cycle
7. Analysis
Monitoring of policy progress along with the analysis of issues and policy or intervention options
4. Compilation
Add useful energy estimates for solar reserves and resources categories forming national figures
Estimate the quantities of useful energy from existing and potential projects and fill data gaps using estimates made using GIS, taking into account infrastructure and policy requirements
Collect data and information on solar projects through administrative data (e.g. related to permits), by survey, from industry associations and from research organisations
2. Calculation
1. Collection
6. Reporting
Present the data and report to government and the public
8. Decisions
10. Changes
9. Implementation
Changes in projects, access to sites, markets, technology, as well as changes in regulations and competition
Implementation of policies and interventions including infrastructure investment, taxes, subsidies, and tariffs, and regulations
Decisions made regarding energy policies and interventions
5. Control
Check data quality and ensure information has been classified correctly
Classify useful energy estimates directly into reserves and resources categories
3. Classification
Government information cycle applying the Solar Specifications Policy cycle
7. Analysis
Monitoring of policy progress along with the analysis of issues and policy or intervention options
4. Compilation
Add useful energy estimates for solar reserves and resources categories forming national figures
Assessm
ent o
f resou
rce availability
Polic
y in
terv
enti
on
s
Solar resources have been classified before
In 1989 the United States Department of Energy made an assessment of national energy resources
This included renewable and non-renewable energy resources classified using the McKelvey diagram
Renewable energy made up the majority of the estimated US resource base in 1989
Solar and biomass made up a majority of the estimated US accessible resource in 1989
Renewable energy formed only a small fraction of US reserves in 1989
Other resource classification examples
World Energy Council (1994)
Theoretical potential
Geographic potential
Technical potential
Economic potential
The WEC classified renewable energy resources in its 1994 report titled “New Renewable Energy Resources - a guide to the future”
Other resource classification examples
World Energy Council (1994) Köberle et al 2015
the total primary solar energy flux hitting the Earth’s surface suitable for PV and CSP
Theoretical potential
Geographic potential
Technical potential
Economic potential
the primary energy flux in suitable and available geographic areas of the globe
the geographic potential after any efficiency losses of the primary to secondary conversion process are accounted for
the economically feasible technical potential
Others, such as Köberle et al (2015), have applied these categories to solar energy
The United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory also apply these categories
Sou
rce:
Bro
wn
et
al 2
01
6
Nearly 30 years ago, the Department of Energy noted: “reserve and resource estimates are not necessarily undertaken in a coordinated or parallel fashion across a full range of energy sources”
In many ways the situation has not changed much since then
Opportunities and challenges
Billions of dollars have been invested in solar energy and billions more will be invested with or without the Solar Specifications
The Solar Specifications need to be pragmatic if they are to make any difference
Practical applications
Use the Solar Specifications to monitor and manage
project development
Use the Solar Specifications for national solar energy assessments
Developers
Use the UNFC and Solar Specifications as a template for projects seeking finance
Financiers
GovernmentsUse the UNFC and
Solar Specifications as criteria for finance
Use assessments to inform policy and energy security
Use assessments to attract developers and investors
Include solar reserves in Reserve Replacement Ratios
Include solar reserves with oil and gas reserves
Reporting by public companies
Terms and definitions are important
Terms like mining, extraction and deposit from the UNFC are not relevant to renewable resources
Other terms like utilisation or project are relevant to both renewable and non-renewable resources
Using generalised language that is meaningful to both renewable and non-renewable resources is important for uptake of the UNFC and its application to solar
The terms used in the UNFC can be an impediment to engagement
The UNFC is sophisticated but complex
The UNFC elegantly brings together the E, F and G axes to form a sophisticated 3 dimensional classification scheme
Simplified 2 dimensional tables are much easier to explain, apply and engage users with
However, having a third dimension makes the classification scheme complex
It is difficult to explain a 3 dimensional classification scheme or engage new users
The challenge is maintaining consistency with the UNFC while being practical
Engagement
Renewable energy classifications already exist and have been applied to solar energy resources
The organisations that created and maintained these renewable resource classifications should be engaged by the EGRC
The Solar Subgroup will endeavour to reach out and engage the WEC, NREL and others
Next steps
Apr 2018 Sept 2019
Review by the Expert Group on Resource Classification
Testing of the draft Solar Specifications
Hold an expert group meeting to review second draft Solar Specifications
Revise the draft Solar Specifications based on feedback from EGRC, TAG and Solar Subgroup
Submit draft Solar Specifications to EGRC-10 for a decision on release for Public Comment
Apr 2019
Public Comment
Approval by Sustainable Energy Committee
We need your feedback
Thank you
Challenge Institute
Lead, Solar SubgroupDirector, Challenge InstituteDoctoral Candidate, UCL STEaPP
Produced by Jeremy Webb
jeremy.webb@challenge.institute
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