sportsbetting tips-understanding probability

SPORTSBETTING TIPS

UNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY

This introduction to probability is brought to

you by MobileBetting.kiwi  

In this presentation you’ll learn how probability affects the bets

you place and why it’s a key factor in sports betting.

Objective

To understand how probability comes into play in sports betting. To provide a basic understanding of calculating probability. To ensure MobileBetting.kiwi punters have the best chance of placing solid bets.

Definition of Probability Probability measures how likely an event is

to happen and it can be quantified by a number between 0 and 100.

0 indicates that there is absolutely no way an event will occur.

100% shows that’s its an absolute certainty.

Applying Probability to Sports Bets When checking bookmaker odds its

essential that you are able to determine which bets offer good value.

By applying probability and determining the likelihood of an outcome, you can work out whether a bet is worthwhile.

Probability vs. Odds Probability and Odds are closely linked and at

MobileBetting.kiwi only sports books with consistently good odds are recommended.

Odds generally refer to the payout ratio of any bet and the chance of an event occurring.

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur on a numerical scale.

Calculating Probability It may take a little bit of practice to get the hang

of calculating probability but it’s a skill that the pros at MobileBetting.kiwi highly recommend acquiring.

You can crunch the numbers yourself by looking stats, past results and trends or you can make use of a prediction service.

A probability estimate will give you a clear indication as to whether a bet has value when compared to the bookmaker’s odds.

Implied Probability Explained

Implied probability is a crucial concept and can be applied at all the sports books recommended by MobileBetting.kiwi.

Implied probability converts traditional odds into percentages, taking into account the bookmakers edge and resulting in a calculation that could be called the “true odds” for any event.

Implied probability can be applied to live betting, individual game lines, propositions and futures markets.

MobileBetting.kiwi Betting Tip If you think your winning chances are

higher than the implied probability, your bet is good value.

If you feel the implied probability is higher than the chance of winning, then steer clear of betting.

Expected Return Explained Expected return should yield the same

results as implied probabilities and is another way of measuring bet value.

Expected return measures the expected net profit from any bet.

Net profit is worked out by subtracting your stake from your winnings to see what your real return was. 

Calculating Expected Value MobileBetting.kiwi provides punters with

several ways to work out whether their bets are worthwhile- all using probability to calculate results.

Expected Value (EV) shows how much you can expect to win on average per bet. Calculated based on placing bets with the same odds repeatedly, EV works out an average of winning results.

By understanding probability, how to calculate it and how to apply it to the odds offered by online sports books you can improve your success rate.

Thanks for watching 

MobileBetting.kiwi wishes you good luck and successful punting!