spring 2014 economic overview
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Spring 2014Economic Overview
Presented ByKenneth Hunter, MPA
ABFM Executive CommitteeEditor, Line Item
May 20, 2014
What’s Up with the Economy?
Sources for Information
Overall Economic Performance
2014q1, $15.95T
$10T
$11T
$12T
$13T
$14T
$15T
$16T
$17T20
00q1
2000
q220
00q3
2000
q420
01q1
2001
q220
01q3
2001
q420
02q1
2002
q220
02q3
2002
q420
03q1
2003
q220
03q3
2003
q420
04q1
2004
q220
04q3
2004
q420
05q1
2005
q220
05q3
2005
q420
06q1
2006
q220
06q3
2006
q420
07q1
2007
q220
07q3
2007
q420
08q1
2008
q220
08q3
2008
q420
09q1
2009
q220
09q3
2009
q420
10q1
2010
q220
10q3
2010
q420
11q1
2011
q220
11q3
2011
q420
12q1
2012
q220
12q3
2012
q420
13q1
2013
q220
13q3
2013
q420
14q1
Chained $ US GDP (Annualized Measure, 2000-Present)
2013q4, 2.3%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%20
05q1
2005
q220
05q3
2005
q420
06q1
2006
q220
06q3
2006
q420
07q1
2007
q220
07q3
2007
q420
08q1
2008
q220
08q3
2008
q420
09q1
2009
q220
09q3
2009
q420
10q1
2010
q220
10q3
2010
q420
11q1
2011
q220
11q3
2011
q420
12q1
2012
q220
12q3
2012
q420
13q1
2013
q220
13q3
2013
q420
14q1
Annualized US Chained GDP Growth, 2005-Present
1980-2005 Average, 3.2%
2.0%2.3%
4.1%1.5%
1.9%-0.3%-0.3%
2.5%0.4%
2.7%3.8%
-5.5%-2.7%
-5.8%6.1%
5.9%6.6%
1.8%1.5%
3.5%0.2%
1.2%0.6%
2.3%-0.3%
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Personal consumption expenditures Goods
Durable goods Nondurable goods
ServicesGross private domestic investment
Fixed investment Nonresidential
Structures Equipment
Intellectual property products Residential
Change in private inventoriesNet exports of goods and services
Exports Goods
Services Imports Goods
ServicesGovt. expenditures & gross investment
Federal National defense
Nondefense State and local
Annual Growth Rate, Elements of Chained US GDP, 2005-Present
2.8%0.7%0.8%
2.0%2.7%2.7%
7.7%1.2%
0.5%-0.5%
0.8%1.4%
2.8%4.0%
4.5%5.6%
-0.6%2.9%
-0.9%2.5%
3.6%2.4%
0.6%1.9%
2.7%
0.5%3.3%
-0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
AustraliaAustria
BelgiumBrazil
CanadaChile
ChinaCzech Republic
DenmarkFinlandFrance
GermanyHungary
IcelandIndia
IndonesiaIreland
IsraelItaly
JapanKorea
LuxembourgMexico
SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom
United StatesEuro area (17 countries)
G20
1-Year Chained GDP Growth, 4th Quarter 2013
Costs are Going Up!
How’s the Market?
Are Markets “Stressed”?
Treasury Yields Ticking Upward
US Dollar Improving
Housing Prices Up, Still Affordable
Energy Costs Stable?
Labor Market Picture
Hiring Still Struggling
Structural Labor Force Decline
Emerging Trends
Emerging Trends
Emerging Trends
http://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/flowsmapper/map.html
Government Financial Performance
States Regaining Ground
Local Conditions Better
What’s the Outlook?
What’s Small Business Thinking?
Outlook
US GDP2.8% growth for 2014 (3% predicted last fall)
Jobs
Average growth of 188k/month for 2014
Probability of Fed’s “Taper”82% expect ending in 2014
Other Issues
GASB 67/68
Education
Infrastructure
Utility Regulation
Thank You!
Kenneth HunterKenneth.Hunter@nclgba.org
www.ABFM.org
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