sri lanka real estate market brief jan 2012 (softcopy)
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7/31/2019 Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief Jan 2012 (Softcopy)
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Sri LankaReal Estate
Market
Brief
Sri LankaReal Estate
Market
BriefVolume 1: January 2012
In association with
Research
Intelligence
Unit
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Contents
Inner city clues 01
INSIGHT: The modern suburb 03
Sky high: Condominium market overview 04
Interview: Looming opportunity in construction 06
Residential lands in the suburbs 07
The market for real estate assets in Sri Lanka has shown a significant growth phenom-
enon since 2009 with a marked increase in price levels of real estate assets including
bare lands, residential housing, commercial premises and condominium style apart-
ments. Increased foreign investment interest in prime blocks of commercial lands in
the city of Colombo, the acquisition and resale of leisure properties by private inves-
tors and a general increase in confidence levels of household investors is likely to have
fueled the development of Sri Lankas property market during the past 24 months.
The changing landscape of Sri Lankas real estate market is likely to be further elabo-
rated by shifting lifestyles of real estate buyers including broader acceptance for
apartment style living, further cities becoming accessible and equipped with neces-
sary infrastructure and a growing leisure sector across a number of districts in Sri
Lanka. Further transformation is also likely to take place in the city of Colombo which
moves to becoming a picturesque and yet commercial city which could emerge as a
trade hub for South Asia.
A number of emerging opportunities could result from the development of Sri Lankas
real estate market for both the institution and the individual. Recent growth trends
have shown increasing activity in the construction industry, housing, property salesand apartment projects. Individuals are also likely to have benefited from increasing
property prices and appear to continue to invest in tangible real estate assets.
The Real Estate Market Brief will be an informative and interesting thought leadership
to those who wish to explore the potential of this sector.
Reyaz Mihular
Partner Head of Advisory,
KPMG in Sri Lanka.
KPMG Ford, Rhodes, Thornton & Co., in 2010 made the firms first mark on
the real estate market with the launch of a real estate advisory practice
encompassing a dedicated team of real estate professionals and working
with the aim of bridging information asymmetry between buyers and sellers
of real estate assets. Since inception, the team has worked collectively with
investors, financiers, land owners and intermediaries helping them to
convert strengths and synergies into successful and viable real estate
projects.
Even though the property market was one of the most mature industries in
Sri Lanka, one the main challenges we confronted was in relation to limitedpublished information available in relation to property prices, transactions
and the performance of the sector as well as its various sub sectors. The
Real Estate Market Brief we believe will address this challenge, making
useful information available to interested parties and keeping you more
aware and well informed of developments in the real estate sector.
Shiluka Goonewardene
Principal Financial and Real Estate Advisory,
KPMG in Sri Lanka.
Foreword
Overview of Real Estate Market Brief
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Unlike most emerging economies,
the urban population in Sri Lanka has
not increased in accordance with the
increase in population over the past
five decades and currently, only 15
percent of the population live incities. Despite issues regarding the
classification of urban and rural
areas, it is estimated that Sri Lanka
has a higher percentage of its
population living in rural areas than
even Afghanistan.
The permanent population of
Colombo City is estimated at around
900,000 whilst the floating popula-
tion is around 500,000. At the time
of gaining independence the city
was a model Capital in the entire
region and it is still widely remarked
that even Singapore, aspired to be
like Colombo. However, by the turn
of the millennium, almost half (49
percent) of the dwellings in the
capital were made up of low income
settlements.
Now at long last the landscape is in
a state of rapid transformation.
With the current drive to modernize
the city, stand-pipes, illegal dwellingsand make-shift latrines in the inner
city areas are becoming a thing of
the past as the city of Colombo
reclaims its past glory.
Colombo characterPrice data on land sale registrations
and advertised rates reflect several
driving factors. Firstly, a defining
characteristic of the city (in areas
such as Colombo 01, 02 and 03) isthe scarcity of private land sale
registrations. This reflects the
widespread level of state presence
in this area as well as the high
number of illegal dwellings. Sec-
ondly, with the few private property
transactions that were recorded at
the land registry, the per-perch
prices shows tremendous variation
from as low as Rs.1 million up to
Rs.14 million ( See chart 1.1).
This is due not only to the socio-
economic factors but also as a
consequence of various legal and
regulatory issues that impact the
market. For example, building
permits are generally only granted to
lands of over six perches and as a
result smaller plots are much
cheaper. Perceptions also impact
prices. Lands closer to Galle Road
are more expensive than lands
closer to the beach due to the
stronger security and higher com-mercial value.
However, the overwhelming factor
that impacts the land market is the
heavy presence of the state and the
Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief [ 1 ]
dynamics within various state
bodies, especially in Colombo 01 and
02. For example, according to RIU
sources, the D.R Wijeywardene
Mawatha and Banking Square areas
of Colombo 01 used to be owned byvarious state institutions like the
CMC and the Ports Authority.
However, now many such lands are
being vested under one state
authority the Urban Development
Authority (UDA). Many lands in this
area have been vested already and
others are currently in the process of
being transferred to the UDA.
Typically the UDAs policy is to give
out these lands to investors, both
foreign and local, on 66 or 99 year
leases which is in accordance with
the governments policy, as stipu-
lated in the recent budget. The UDA
has recently invited investors, both
foreign and local, to engage in
discussions for a number of such
developments.
Ear-marked areasThis part of Colombo 01, which
houses state and private buildings,
including warehouses that date backto the islands former Colonial era
when the lake was used to transport
goods from the Colombo port, is
believed to have been ear-marked as
a night-life tourist spot.
Inner City CluesInner city Colombo is an area where urban dwellers from diverse backgrounds have long lived shoulder-to-shoulder.
However, the citys landscape is currently in a state of transition with the government pursuing a policy of transformation
that will beautify the Capitals landscape.
Image courtesy David Altabev
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Likewise, the Gangarama Lakefront
area has been ear-marked for linear
park and promenade developments
and already several international
deals are known to be in the
pipeline. According to RIU one such
project rumoured to commence
shortly is the US$400 million shop-ping and residential complex in the
Lakefront area. RIU sources indicate
that the UDA received US$23 million
for a 99 year lease of the two acres
Chart 1.1: Scarcity of Land Registrations and Price variations(Rs) within Colombo 01
of land on Sir James Peiris Mawatha.
Adjoining this development, another
linear park development for recre-
ation and night life is expected to
start early next year.
Meanwhile, the Galle Face area of
Colombo 02 has been ear-marked for
further tourism development and the
recent deal with the international
Shangri-La Group which bought a six
acre block of state land in Colombo's
'Galle Face' beach front for US$125
million to build a 500 room hotel,
shopping and apartment complex
according to LBO, represents a
further move in this direction.
ExodusIn order to make space for these
new developments, iIlegal and
encroached dwellers in these areas
are likely to be urged to move out of
the inner-city to areas which lie on
the outskirts of the city. Those with
legal deeds might also have the
option to move during this process
of inner-city transformation. As a
result of these policies, the future
land market in the inner city area is
likely to be drastically transformed
towards an exclusively high-end
area, and we can expect to witness
a decline in the current disparities asdiscussed above.
Consequently, the private land
values in Colombo 01 and Colombo
02 can be expected to experience
significant appreciation. Meanwhile,
areas that will be accommodating
the transferred dwellers, are likely to
face a price adjustment in the
medium term.
In the current climate, investorspredominantly from China and India
are set to give a complete make-
over to the Colombo 01 and 02
areas over the next two years.
There are many attractions for
foreign investors such as tax
holidays and capital repatriation
which coupled with a boom in the
tourism sector, can make Colombo
city one of the best investment
propositions in the region and
perhaps the world. Local investors
are also known to be showing
strong interest in acquiring these
lands from the UDA in order to
develop high-end recreational
attractions. Given the air of expec-
tation, those that do hold private
property in the inner city areas are
likely to witness significant apprecia-
tion in prices.
Land registration prices, in
Colombo 1 areas, like Main
Street, can fetch values of
around Rs.9-10 million
per-perch whilst Sea Street
sells at around Rs.8 million.
Five million rupees may
currently buy you one perch
in Colombo 3, four million
for Colombo 4 and
Colombo 6. Parts ofColombo 5 like
Thimbirigasyaya market at
around Rs.3.5 per perch
whilst properties in
Colombo 8, Borella,
average at around Rs.4.4
million. The Research
Intelligence Unit forecasts
double digit growth in the
post 2013 period.
Main Street: Rs. 9-10 Millionper perch
Sea Street: Rs. 8 Millionper perch
Source: Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
ource: Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Price per perch Registered Rates Year of Registration
Pric
e
perperch
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INSIGHT: The modern suburb of Maharagama
Property registration prices (Rs per perch) in Maharagama (2009-2011)
Taking a closer look at the of Maha-
ragama Urban Council area which is
situated some 15 kms from the
commercial Capital, a gradual
In order to understand the market
better, we need to look at our data
by separating land registrations into
difference areas, or wards, within
Maharagama. This municipal area in
Colombo District is a population of
increase in the price levels over the
past three years is observed. How-
ever, the trend is not uniform and
there is no close distinction between
the prices of properties with houses
and offices and those that are just
bare lands. The chart below is based
on an independent sample of
property registrations and corre-
sponding prices in Maharagama.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1-Jun-2008 18-Dec-2008 6-Jul-2009 22-Jan-2010 10-Aug-2010 26-Feb-2011 14-Sep-2011 1-Apr-2012
Lands
Houses
Source: Maharagama Urban Council/Collated by Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
Source: Maharagama Urban Council/Collated by Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
some 300,000 is characterised by
wards that have department stores,
super markets, clothing shops, food
and beverage outlets and other
modern facilities that cater to the
needs of the population as well as
wards that are under-developed and
semi-rural in orientation. This is
clearly reflected in the data where
the urban and residential ward areas
tend to fetch notably higher prices
than the mixed and fringe areas.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 12 1 3 1 4 1 5 16 1 7
MixedDevelopments
Urban Areas
Fringe Areas
Residental Areas
18
Average price (Rs) per perch by Ward in Maharagama
Averageprice(Rs)perperch
Wards in Maharagama
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0
500
1000
15002000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Square
Foot
Area
Name of Condominium Building
Square Foot Area - 3 Bedroom Apartments
Whilst some asset classes in Sri
Lanka have been met with mixed
fortunes during late 2011, the overall
trend in the luxury real estate
segment has been positive. The
findings of the Research Intelligence
Unit suggest that the positive incline
in the market for condominium
properties in and around Colombo
city remains buoyant. Our position
based on primary and secondary
data is supported by the Central
Bank of Sri Lanka, which in its latest
Annual Report refers to the demand
for houses and urban infrastructure
as expanding rapidly with population
growth and urbanization. They, theCentral Bank, further note that the
private sector continued to play a
vital role in the housing sector
construction of condominium
housing is the increasing trend, with
corporate property development
being encouraged with various direct
and indirect fiscal incentives, mostly
under BOI status, and the growing
interest of expatriate Sri Lankans to
invest in the real estate sector.
Levels of interest in this sector are
certainly high. According RIU
sources, around one quarter of
apartments in two new high-rise
projects scheduled for construction
4 ] Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief
Condominium Market Overview
However, caution too needs to be
exercised with respect to two
fundamental market determinants.
Firstly, there are a finite number of
expat Sri Lankans living in the westwho are in the condominium market
and since the end of the civil war,
this segment has been at the
frontline in picking up luxury apart-
ments. The peak levels of expat
interest in Sri Lankan real estate
maybe fast approaching or even
possibly behind us in which case the
rate of demand growth will slow-
down. India, for example, has a far
larger number of expats living in the
west but the country is currentlyexperiencing a dip in the condo-
minium market due to the factors
that are more related to the domes-
tic economies of foreign countries
and factors such as the cost of
borrowing.
by one of Sri Lankas main condo-
minium developers have been
reserved even before construction
has started. Out of the 226 apart-
ments built in the first phase, only
ten remained to be sold. Generally,
our research points to high occu-
pancy levels across the board in
most condominium property with an
average pre-construction sale ratio of
around 50 percent. Some of the
more prestigious developments like
the Empire, Emperor, Lumiere and
Trillium tend to sell around 80
percent of their units by completion
of construction. Meanwhile, the
established buildings like Royal Parkand Iceland Residencies
have very few apartments available
for sale or re-sale.
Source: Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
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Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief [ 5 ]
Secondly, any perceived risks
involved with doing business in Sri
Lanka also tend to play a significant
role in the minds of potential expat
buyers.
On balance, we can note that on the
supply-side, developers have been
actively expanding the number of
condominium projects that silhou-
ette the landscape. For the mostpart, RIU research indicates high
levels of occupancy with pre-sales
moving fast enough to encourage
further entry of players and projects.
What we have also noted is that the
top-tier projects have tended to
perform much better in this regard
than the condominium projects that
are comparatively more affordable.
One reason for this is that the
income levels in the Western Prov-
ince and Colombo in particular arefar higher than the national average
and the mean average income is
twice over the median average
income level in the district. This
illustrates that there is an increasing
number of high-net-worth individuals
(HNI) living in Colombo now.
However, RIUs long-term position is
somewhat conservative for this
segment of the real estate market as
past bullish sentiments have notalways been reflective of long-term
stability. For example, we can note
that large scale, luxury, condo-
minium properties appeared in 2002
at the time of a ceasefire agreement
between the Government of Sri
Lanka and the rebels. The boom in
demand caused prices to surge in
this market segment and by 2006/07
values reached levels comparable to
those in the developed world.
However, as more and more devel-
opers entered this market and
sought to cash-in, the return ofconflict dealt a blow to demand and
this segment was stifled from
2007-09 with many developers
reporting losses.
Returning to peace in the island led
this segment to receive an almost
immediate dividend. To some extent
there is an expat bubble element in
the bullish double-digit growth that
maybe sustained over the short
term. In the long-term, more consis-
tent growth is likely to prevail given
the overall global economy dynam-
ics.
The government is also looking to
encourage more foreign participation
and has reduced the tax obligations
of international buyers.
Source: Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
4500
40003500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
TheE
mpir
e
Mon
arch
Onthree2
0
Hyde
ParkRe
siden
cies
Spath
odea
Resid
encie
s
Barnes
PlaceR
eside
ncies
Rosm
eadP
laceT
owers
Lumier
eApa
rtments
RoyalP
ark
2 Bedroom Square Foot Area 3 Bedroom AptSquare Foot Area
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Can you tell us a bit about the
type of projects Sierra is involved
with at the moment?
We have just entered into a strategic
business partnership with Browns
and LOLC where all three parties will
be active in the real estate market
with Sierra handling all constriction
related activities. Currently, we are
developing a new and exciting
leisure sector project in Kosgoda
together with Browns. The Samudra
beach Hotel is a state-of-the-art
facility with a 150 room capacity and
we have got all the necessaryapprovals from the central authori-
ties. We are currently in the process
of getting clearances from the local
government authorities. This last
stage can sometimes take too much
time to complete.
So do you feel quite bullish on the
leisure sector?
Yes, we are very positive in this
regard and the current and future
focus will be to develop top classhotels in various parts of the island.
In this regard, we are looking at the
top end of the market where tourists
have a budget of $200 per night or
higher. It will be good for the country
to attract a better class of tourists
who spend their money here. One
example of such a project is the
upcoming Tea Leaf that will be an
excellent example of a boutique type
eco-friendly experience.
When we consider that 43,000 new
hotel rooms are needed by 2016 in
order to keep pace with the
governments target to achieve 2.5
million inbound tourists by 2015, a
massive effort is needed. In fact, this
is a very achievable target and the
leisure sector is currently the driving
force of the construction industry,
not the housing sector. If we fail to
meet the demand then we will face
a shortage that will in turn drive up
the room rates. This will harm the
tourism market.
What is the future for the domes-
tic tourists? Will they be able to
afford the local rates in future?Domestic tourism is a very impor-
tant aspect of the sector and it has
to be accommodated. For some
segments of the domestic market,
flying to Thailand or Singapore will
soon be more affordable than local
five-star hotels. However, we have to
understand that domestic tourism is
our mainstay market and we need to
ensure that they are well looked
after. One aspect of this strategy
should be to develop and upgradethe rest-houses that are scattered
around the island in large numbers
with some located in incredibly
scenic and beautiful spots. These
facilities should be renovated,
perhaps under public private partner-
ships, in order to support the city-to-
city tourism, like in India.
From the construction sector
perspective, what issues do you
face?
The construction sector in Sri Lanka
is looking good at the moment and
the outlook for the next decade is
] Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief
Sri Lankas Looming Construction
IndustryAn RIU Interview with Priyantha Perera, Group Director, Sierra Construction
and Chairman of the Contractors Association of Sri Lanka discusses opportunities
in the construction sector.
very positive. We are currently
looking at around eight percent
growth rate that will likely increase
over the coming years.
However, there are some serious
issues. Firstly, we are currently
facing a shortage in human
resources, particularly for the skilled
and semi-skilled workers. This is
partly due to the fact that many of
our workers are currently doing jobs
overseas. It is also a product of the
fact that many school leavers come
out with no technical skills in metalwork, wood work, etc., that can
contribute to this sector. We have
taken some measures to address
this but more efforts are needed.
Another issue that we face is the
rising cost of raw materials. One
reason for this is the fact that most
materials have to be imported.
Another reason is connected to the
fact that getting approvals for mining
and quarrying takes a long time and
is a difficult process. Consequently,the construction sector has to
absorb this cost.
We also feel that despite of the fact
that we have the government that is
largely supportive in terms of the
policies that affect the construction
sector, some individual officials in
government departments can be too
slow to do their jobs. Officials who
drag their feet are responsible for
slowing-down progress that
ultimately has an economic cost.
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The story of land prices in the
suburbs has been one of almost
continual appreciation over the pasttwo decades according to available
data. The factors exerting upward
pressure on prices include rising
demand for housing, currently
estimated at around 90,000 units per
annum, increases in per capita GDP,
increases in migrant worker remit-
tances and the financial health of
local corporations. Fluctuations in
interest rates have direct short-term
impacts where the relationship is
traditionally a negative correlation.
Available data (Central Bank / Valua-
tions Department) also indicate that
the rise in residential land prices in
the suburbs has been much sharper
than it has been in the city areas, be
it from a much lower base. This is
likely to be a reflection of the fact
that unlike some CMC areas that
may have reached their peak in
terms of development potential,
given existing regulations on
constructions and building restric-
tions, the suburban areas are still
significantly below their develop-
ment potential. The second factor is
Sri Lanka Real Estate Market Brief [ 7 ]
Residential Lands in the suburbs
Trends in Residential prices andinterest rates
Trends in residential land pricesand foreign remittances
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Valuation Department/
Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
socio-economic and demographic.
Given the affordability power of the
middle-income buyers who mainly
consist of newly-weds and civil
servants, which accounts for the
larger share of the property market,
CMC areas are a non-starter for most
middle-income buyers tighter budget
constraints.
However, the contrast in prices
increases between the CMC areas
and the suburbs is less pronounced
for industrial lands. We can also note
a sharp dip in the overall price levelsin 2007 which is likely to be a conse-
quence of high interest rates at the
time, the return of conflict to the
island which was then followed by
the global financial crisis that had a
direct and negative impact on foreign
remittances. However, 2009 was a
turning point with the ending of the
conflict and with the domestic
economy largely on-track, RIU notes
a stable growth rate of around 4.5
percent at present time. The rate hasthe potential to increase further up to
around 7.5 percent, given a favour-
able interest rate and stability in the
Middle East.Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka/Valuation Department/Research Intelligence Unit (RIU)
What are your concerns regarding
the wider real-estate market?
In Sri Lanka, its hard for the middle-
income segment to enter the
property market. If you consider that
a buyer needs around Rs.15 million
in order to afford a decent house in
Colombo, for most, this is beyond
their budget. The reason why
housing is costly is partly due to thehigh costs of construction, as I said
earlier. The government needs to
take steps in order to make housing
more affordable like, for example,
cutting taxes on essential material
imports. The government can also
extend more support to buyers from
both the public and private sector to
buy their own home.
What opportunities do you see for
those who can enter the market?Now, it is a good time for people to
get ready to start their projects.
Mixed residential and tourism sector
facilities will have a good demand in
the medium term. Commercial and
retail properties are also set to
experience strong demand growth.
How about the luxury apartment
sector?
Currently, we have too many apart-ments in Colombo where the
market is over-supplied. Most
people who buy these apartments
do so for renting out and very few
actually live there. If we take
Colombo 06 for example, we find
that since the dawn of peace,
people who originated from the
north have now returned to Jaffna
and surrounding areas. This has
resulted in a slackening of demand
for high-end properties that were
previously experiencing strong
demand from locals and expats.
Finally, turning to you, what keeps
you motivated and how do you
see your future in the industry?
I started out as a businessman over
thirty years back in various areas
including agriculture and manufactur-
ing. However, in the early eighties, Ientered the construction sector and
started Sierra. I excelled in this
sector due to my all round knowl-
edge in design and engineering as
well as construction. The construc-
tion sector is the biggest business in
the world. It employs workers at all
levels. Currently I am the Chairman
of the Contractors Association of Sri
Lanka.
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 0
5
10
15
25
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
-5
-10
5
10
15
20 25
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
20
03
2004
2005
2006
20
07
20
08
Dec20
09
Jun
2010
19
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20
06
2007
2008
Dec
200
9
Jun
2010
Percent
Index
Percent
Index
Colombo District
Yield om 3 month Treasury Bill
Weighted Average Prime Lending Rate
Land Price Growth - C olombo District
Growth in Private Remittances
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Contact us
Reyaz Mihular
Partner Head of Advisory
KPMG in Sri Lanka
T:+94 (11) 5426400
E: reyazmihular@kpmg.com
M.F. Jifry
Manager - Real Estate Advisor
KPMG in Sri Lanka
T:+94 (11) 5426423
M: +94 727356544
E: mohamedjiffry@kpmg.com
Shiluka GoonewardenePrincipal Financial & Real Estate
Advisory
KPMG in Sri Lanka
T: +94 (11) 5426403
E: sgoonewardene@kpmg.com
Roshan Madawela
Director
Research Intelligence Unit
T: +94 722741305
E: roshan@riunit.com
Divya HundlaniAnaylst
Research Intelligence Unit
T: +94 (11) 4369616-8
E: divya@riunit.com
Mohamed Hilal Niyas
Manager - Publications
Research Intelligence Unit
T: +94 (11) 4369616-8
E: hillal@riunit.com
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the
circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate
and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the
date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such
information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of theparticular situation.
2012 KPMG Ford, Rhodes, Thornton & Co., a Sri Lankan Partnership and a member firm of the
KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative
(KPMG International), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Printed in Sri Lanka. Publication date: January 2012.
www.lk.kpmg.com
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