st. louis metropolitan police homicide predictions a-team dan burgdorf spencer malaney richard...

St. Louis Metropolitan PoliceHomicide predictions

A-Team

Dan BurgdorfSpencer MalaneyRichard Manierski

Ryan WebsterDaniel Anthony

What Constitutes a homicide?

Definition: Homicide (Latin homicidium, homo human being + caedere to cut, kill) refers to the act of a human killing a human being.

Our Definition(s): The unlawful killing of one human being by the work of another individual

Any death being classified as a homicide by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is an official homicide in the eyes of Group A (In short, we are not questioning the fine judgment of the STLMPD)

Predicting Homicides in the city of St. Louis for 2010

Study of the decline in homicides during the 1990’s Factors that Don’t affect Homicide - Daniel Factors that DID affect Homicide(s) - Ryan

“Bodies Move” - Rick Urban Development - Spencer Website and Predictions – Spencer Conclusion - Dan

Decline in Homicides in the 90’s -Stephen D. Levitt

SIX FACTORS THAT PLAYED LITTLE OR NO ROLE IN THE

DECLINE1. Strong Economy in the 1990’s2. Changing demographics3. Better Policing Strategies4. Gun Control laws5. Concealed weapons law6. Increase use of Capital

Punishment

1. The Strong Economy of the 1990s

Improvements in labor market opportunities make crime relatively less attractive

Relevant for burglary, robbery and theft, but less important for homicides, assaults and rapes

Unemployment and property crime

2. Changing Demographics

Baby boomers Older generations are less likely to

commit crimes Younger generations are more prone to

commit violent crimes Eventually both are going to offset each

other in a large picture

3. Better Policing Strategies

Community policing strategies Media attention and use of technology in

identifying crime ‘hot spots’ No known effective tool to measure

strategies

4. Gun Control Laws

Little evidence Gun buy-back programs Typical programs like this yields very few

guns Very few guns used in crimes were

licensed

5. Laws Allowing the Carrying of Concealed Weapons

Luby’s massacre Studies showing a relationship between

concealed weapons and the homicide rate are based on Empirical data that was already on the decline before the enactment of the law.

6. Increased Use of Capital Punishment

Even after introducing death penalties, homicide rate did not decline a lot

The decline rate was 1/25 So it was not really effective.

FOUR FACTORS THAT EXPLAIN THE DECLINE

1) Increases in the Number of Police

2) The Rising Prison Population

3) The Receding Crack Epidemic

4) The Legalization of Abortion

CONCLUSIONS ABOUT 90’S APPLICABLE TO OUR MODEL

Things we will need to look at further to provide more accurate predictions in 2010: Change in demographics

Age of inhabitants Race of inhabitants

Change in Police Deployment Budget cuts or gets increased Low recruitment or High recruitment

Change in rate of Incarceration Prisons become full OR new prisons open up Judges opt for probation OR opt for tougher sentencing

Change in Drug Market or drug supply Major busts in supply chain Afghanistan and Opium trade

Urban Development

Foreclosures impact on violent crimes in Charlotte, NC.

Urban Development Cont.

Wal-Mart Violent crimes were 6 times more likely to

occur in Wal-Mart parking lots than at a Target parking lots in 2004.

(sample done by WalmartCrimeReport.com) Not enough data to make conclusions

“BODIES MOVE”

“BODIES MOVE” CONT.

EXAMPLE: DISTRICT X

300 HOMICIDES 52 DETERMINED 248 “BODIES FOUND”

FEW FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE DISTRICT Y

25 HOMICIDES 20 DETERMINED 5 “BODIES FOUND”

MANY FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE

Website

http://www.umsl.edu/~wm5k7

Conclusion

Any Questions??