state of wisconsin additional/voluntary filing #2014-11 ...€¦ · this additional/voluntary...
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This Additional/Voluntary Filing does not concern an event described in Securities and Exchange Act Rule 15c2-12, as amended.
Issuer: State of Wisconsin
CUSIP Numbers: 977055 Prefix (All) 977056 Prefix (All) 97705L Prefix (All) 977087 Prefix (All) 977092 Prefix (All) 977100 Prefix (All) 977109 Prefix (All) 977123 Prefix (All)
Type of Information: Financial/Operating Filing Information Provided to Other Third Party
Attached is a presentation that was provided at a State-sponsored investor outreach event on June 9, 2014. While the attached does not follow the format of other State of Wisconsin disclosure materials prepared by this office, this filing is being made so that all investors have the same information regarding the State of Wisconsin. The attached provides selected information regarding certain topics; it is not intended to provide comprehensive information concerning the financial condition of the State.
The State of Wisconsin is providing this Additional/Voluntary Filing with the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board through its Electronic Municipal Market Access system. This Additional/Voluntary Filing is also available on the State of Wisconsin Capital Finance Office web site at:
doa.wi.gov/capitalfinance
The undersigned represents that he is the Capital Finance Director, State of Wisconsin Capital Finance Office, which is the office of the State of Wisconsin responsible for providing additional/voluntary filings, annual reports, and Event Filings pursuant to the State’s Master Agreement on Continuing Disclosure (Amended and Restated December 1, 2010), and is authorized to distribute this information publicly.
/S/ KEVIN D. TAYLOR Kevin D. Taylor, Capital Finance Director State of Wisconsin Capital Finance Office Wisconsin Department of Administration 101 East Wilson Street, FLR 10 Madison, WI 53703 Phone: (608) 266-2305 Fax: (608) 266-7645 E-mail: DOACapitalFinanceOffice@wisconsin.gov Website: www.doa.state.wi.us/capitalfinance
State of Wisconsin Additional/Voluntary Filing #2014-11
Dated June 12, 2014
Summary of Wisconsin's Economic Position
State of Wisconsin Investor Briefing June 9, 2014
John Koskinen, Chief Economist and Research Director
Wisconsin Department of Revenue
1
Disclaimer
This presentation is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for any securities issued, or to be issued, by the State of Wisconsin, and it does not provide any investment advice. Prospective investors for securities issued, or to be issued, by the State should refer to the official statement or offering memorandum authorized by the State for providing information about the specific securities and should consult with their advisors and legal counsel with questions about those securities. Information included in this presentation is based on the sources indicated. The State has not verified the accuracy of information from external sources. This presentation provides selected information regarding specific topics. The information is not intended to provide comprehensive information concerning the operations or financial condition of the State. The charts depict varying financial periods and were created for this presentation. The State’s Continuing Disclosure Annual Report, dated December 27, 2013, provides information about the operations and financial condition of the State and is available through the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board’s Electronic Municipal Market Access system, and the State also posts “material event notices” and “informational notices” on the EMMA system. That information is also available through the Capital Finance Office’s web site at www.doa.wi.gov/capitalfinance. All statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements that are based on expectations, estimates, projections, or assumptions. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and the State undertakes no obligation to update such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Actual results could differ materially from the anticipated results.
2
Today's Topics
• Job Growth
• Economic Indicators
• Manufacturing Outlook
• Pensions and OPEB
• Wisconsin's Economic Outlook
3
Job Growth
• Wisconsin has gained more than 100,000 private sector jobs over the past three years
• Wisconsin's unemployment rate remains well below the US average
4
Wisconsin Has Added Over 115,000 Jobs Since 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Change in Private Employment Since December 2010
5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
Shifts Momentum on Yearly Change
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
1 08 7 08 1 09 7 09 1 10 7 10 1 11 7 11 1 12 7 12 1 13 7 13 1 14
CES
Est
imat
es in
Th
ou
san
ds,
Se
aso
nal
ly A
dju
sted
Year Over Year Change in Private Employment
6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
Wisconsin's Unemployment Rate Consistently Below US Average
Wisconsin's Unemployment Rate at 5.8%
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0 Percent of Labor Force Unemployed
US
WI
7
Last Month Plotted April 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Initial UI Claims Running At Lowest Level In the Past 13 Years
8033
10938 10579
12396
9359 9473 9370 9210
10948
21124
13699 12984
9925 9186 8937
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Four Week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Through Week 17
8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Training Administration
Wisconsin Economic Indicators
Key indicators show solid economic growth in Wisconsin:
―Income
―Housing
―Leading Indicators
―ISM Manufacturing Index
9
Since 2000, Wisconsin Per Capita Income Growth Has Outpaced the US…
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Diffe
rence
in G
row
th F
rom
US
Avera
ge
10
Wisconsin Ranked 7th in the US for Per Capita Income Growth in 2013
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
…And Far Outpaced The Region
11
Per Capita Income Growth2000 to 2013
Over 60% (12)
47% to 60% (17)
42% to 47% (10)
25% to 42% (11)
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Wisconsin Per Capita Income Above US Average When Adjusted for Purchasing Power
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pe
r C
apit
a In
com
e in
Th
ou
san
ds
All States
Wisconsin
12
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Wisconsin Median Household Income Typically Above US Average
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Wisconsin Median Household Income % of US Average
13 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Wisconsin Housing Reviving
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan 0
0
Jun
00
No
v 00
Ap
r 01
Sep
01
Feb
02
Jul 0
2
De
c 02
May 0
3
Oct 0
3
Mar 0
4
Au
g 04
Jan 0
5
Jun
05
No
v 05
Ap
r 06
Sep
06
Feb
07
Jul 0
7
De
c 07
May 0
8
Oct 0
8
Mar 0
9
Au
g 09
Jan 1
0
Jun
10
No
v 10
Ap
r 11
Sep
11
Feb
12
Jul 1
2
De
c 12
May 1
3
Oct 1
3
Mar 1
4Pe
rcen
t C
han
ge O
ver
Pri
or
Year
Total Residential Building Permits, 12-Month Total
14
Last Month Plotted: April 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Wisconsin Home Prices on the Rise
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Jan
06
Jun
06
No
v 0
6
Ap
r 0
7
Sep
07
Feb
08
Jul 0
8
Dec
08
May
09
Oct
09
Mar
10
Au
g 1
0
Jan
11
Jun
11
No
v 1
1
Ap
r 1
2
Sep
12
Feb
13
Jul 1
3
Dec
13
Perc
ent
Ch
ange
, Sam
e M
on
th P
rio
r Ye
ar
Freddie Mac Home Price Index--Wisconsin
Last Month Plotted: March 2014
15 Source: Freddie Mac, Economic and Housing Research
Leading Index Expects Continued Wisconsin Growth Map from FRB Philadelphia Press Release on their Leading Index
16 Release Date: May 29, 2014
Milwaukee ISM Manufacturing Index Surges in May
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14
Milwaukee
U.S.
Last Month Plotted: May 2014
17 Source: Institute for Supply Management; Marquette University Center for Supply Chain Management
Marquette ISM, May 2014
Report on Manufacturing Highlights
18
What respondents are saying in May 2014:
We are being impacted by a large increase in orders.
The major issue at this time is production capacity to fill these orders
Quoting activity and dollar volume have increased in the past 4 weeks; Heavy RFQ activity
Sales rose but quoting was unexpectedly high.
North America sales orders ahead of plan
Business is already brisk
Strong automotive
Only challenge is in freight movement - delayed rail movement; sea freight held up for bundling shipments
Aluminum mill lead times extended
Point
Index Series May-14 Apr-14 Change Direction
PMI 63.49 47.26 16.20 growing
New Orders 70.75 40.38 30.40 growing
Production 69.60 38.34 31.30 growing
Employment 59.93 52.13 7.80 growing
Supplier Deliveries 62.41 59.63 2.80 slower
Inventories 54.76 45.83 8.90 growing
Customers' Inventories 45.00 42.50 2.50 declining
Prices 59.52 63.04 -3.50 growing
Backlog of Orders 59.52 54.17 5.40 growing
Index Value
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE: May 2014
Source: Marquette University Center for Supply Chain Management
Manufacturing Outlook
• Manufacturing is projected to do well in the US due to:
– Unit labor costs, productivity adjusted
– Energy cost advantages
– Flexible labor markets
– Export growth
– Re-shoring of operations and in-sourcing suppliers
19
Wisconsin One of the Two Most Manufacturing Intensive States
20
2012 Manufacturing EmploymentPct of Total Employment
Under 5% (8)
5% to 10% (20)
10% to 15% (20)
Over 15% (2)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g C
ost
s =
10
0
Natural Gas
Electricity
Labor
Other
21
Source: Boston Consulting Group, August, 2013 BCG calculations from data supplied by Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Economic Census, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Labor Organization. Chinese costs represent costs in Yangtze region.
Exhibit 1: Labor and Energy Costs Make the U.S. One of the
Developed World's Lowest Cost Countries
Source: Boston Consulting Group, August, 2013
Exhibit 2: The US Labor Market is the Most Attractive among the Major Developed World's Manufacturers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2015 Productivity Adjusted Wages US=100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Overall Labor Market Regulation Rating (10 Highest Rating)
Competitors' Labor Costs Are 1.2 to 1.6 Times Higher than US US Labor Market More Flexible
22
Exhibit 3 Abundant Natural Gas Has Led to a Large Energy Cost Advantage for US Manufacturers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Natural Gas Prices Index, US = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Electricity Prices Index US = 100
23
Source: Boston Consulting Group, August 2013
Exhibit 4: US Export Surge Could Create 2 to 5 Million New Jobs
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Direct Indirect Total
24
Source: Boston Consulting Group, August 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Val
ue
of
Glo
bal
Exp
ort
s, 2
01
1 (
$B
)
25
Exhibit 5: Three-Quarters of Global Manufacturing Exports Concentrated in Seven Categories
Source: Boston Consulting Group, August 2013
Wisconsin Manufacturing
Large Presence in Primary Metals, Machinery, Medical Imaging, and Industrial Controls
26
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
Location Location
Quotient Quotient
NAICS 331 Primary metal manufacturing 2.11 NAICS 334 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 0.87
NAICS 3315 Foundries 5.55 NAICS 334418 Printed circuit assembly manufacturing 2.84
NAICS 33151 Ferrous metal foundries 6.63 NAICS 334513 Industrial process variable instruments 1.12
NAICS 33152 Nonferrous metal foundries 4.03 NAICS 334517 Irradiation apparatus manufacturing 18.60
NAICS 333 Machinery manufacturing 2.90 NAICS 335 Electrical equipment and appliance mfg. 2.88
NAICS 33311 Agricultural implement manufacturing 4.22 NAICS 3351 Electric lighting equipment manufacturing 2.12
NAICS 3332 Industrial machinery manufacturing 3.89 NAICS 3353 Electrical equipment manufacturing 4.76
NAICS 3334 HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment 2.71 NAICS 335311 Electric power and specialty transformer mfg. 3.91
NAICS 3335 Metalworking machinery manufacturing 2.27 NAICS 335312 Motor and generator manufacturing 4.59
NAICS 3336 Turbine and power transmission equipment mfg. 4.48 NAICS 335313 Switchgear and switchboard apparatus mfg. 2.90
NAICS 335314 Relay and industrial control manufacturing 6.56
Wisconsin Exports Reached Record Level in 2013
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000Wisconsin Exports in Millions of Dollars, Twelve Month Total
27
Export manufacturing has recently become the unsung hero of the U.S. economy. As a share of the U.S. economy, in fact, exports are at their highest point in 50 years —Boston Consulting Group, August 2013
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Statistics
28 Source: US Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Statistics
Rank HS Code Description 2012 Value 2013 Value
1 843149 PARTS AND ATTACHMENTS NESOI FOR DERRICKS ETC. 1,009 688
2 842952 MECH SHOVELS EXCAVATORS ETC W 360 DEGREE SPRS 462 401
3 901819 ELECTRO-DIAGNOSTIC APPARATUS NESOI, AND PARTS 369 380
4 871000 TANK & OT ARMORED FIGHT VEH, MOTORIZED; AND P 157 307
5 870190 TRACTORS, NESOI 381 304
6 880000 CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND PARTS 274 260
7 840721 OUTBOARD ENGINES FOR MARINE PROPULSION 202 234
8 490290 NEWSPAPERS, ETC APPEARING LESS THAN 4 TIMES P 260 227
9 870899 PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF MOTOR VEHICLES, NESO 120 221
10 850440 STATIC CONVERTERS; ADP POWER SUPPLIES 167 214
11 901813 MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING APPARATUS 181 206
12 901890 INSTR & APPL F MEDICAL SURGICAL DENTAL VET, N 195 206
13 847330 PARTS & ACCESSORIES FOR ADP MACHINES & UNITS 263 198
14 902212 COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY APPARATUS 240 195
15 841869 REFRIGERATING/FREEZING EQUIPMENT, NESOI 188 191
16 382200 COMPOSITE DIAGNOSTIC/LAB REAGENTS, EXC PHARMA 122 190
17 902290 X-RAY/HI TNSN GENR CNTR PNL & DSK EXM/TRTMNT 219 183
18 220720 ETHYL ALCOHOL & OTH SPIRITS DENATURED ANY STR 283 175
19 210690 FOOD PREPARATIONS NESOI 180 174
20 853710 CONTROLS ETC W ELECT APPR F ELECT CONT NOV 10 146 171
21 848340 GEARS; BALL OR ROLLER SCREWS; GEAR BOXES, ETC 186 168
22 392690 ARTICLES OF PLASTICS, NESOI 144 161
23 840991 SPARK-IGNITION INT COMBUSTION PISTON ENG PTS 157 160
24 900190 LENSES PRISMS MIRRORS OPTCL ELMNT N OPTICALLY 179 160
25 843311 MOWERS FOR LAWNS, PARKS ETC CUT DEVICE HORIZ 164 159
Machinery Manufacturing
Medical Imaging & Medical Equipment
Transportation
Industrial Controls
Total U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) via WISCONSINTop 25 6-digit HS Commodities Based on 2013 Dollar Value
Wisconsin Gains In Manufacturing Employment
29 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Naics Title2012
Employment
2009-2012
% changeNaics Title
2012
Employment
2009-2012
% change
311 Food Manufacturing 62,239 4.1% 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 17,625 20.3%
3115 Dairy Product Manufacturing 17,124 6.3% 3312 Steel Product Manufacturing from Purchased Steel 1,357 12.1%
3119 Other Food Manufacturing 6,713 29.0% 3315 Foundries 14,925 21.4%
312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 2,824 2.7% 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 72,232 12.4%
31212 Breweries 1,786 12.6% 3321 Forging and Stamping 5,779 5.3%
3322 Cutlery and Handtool Manufacturing 2,403 10.6%
325 Chemical Manufacturing 16,175 7.7% 3324 Boiler, Tank, and Shipping Container Manufacturing 5,731 11.4%
3254 Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing 4,104 12.7% 3327 Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing 17,193 27.9%
3259 Other Chemical Product and Preparation Manufacturing 1,647 11.7% 3328 Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating, and Allied Activities 6,499 20.7%
3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 19,745 9.9%
333 Machinery Manufacturing 66,531 10.3%
3331 Agriculture, Construction, and Mining Machinery Manufacturing 14,047 17.5%
3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 8,507 7.8%
3333 Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing 4,201 6.4%
3335 Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing 8,435 14.9%
3336 Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission Equipment Manufacturing 9,527 12.3%
3339 Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing 14,663 8.6%
334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 19,920 0.5%
3344 Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing 6,975 8.4%
335 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 22,468 3.4%
3351 Electric Lighting Equipment Manufacturing 2,042 30.3%
3353 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing 14,259 4.3%
336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 26,484 0.3%
3362 Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing 5,509 7.1%
3366 Ship and Boat Building 3,020 19.6%
339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 13,765 3.6%
3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 5,554 12.9%
Non-Durable Manufacturing Durable Manufacturing
Wisconsin in Top Tier For Manufacturing Job Growth
30
Manufacturing Employment
% Change From July 2009
Over 10% (7)
5% to 10% (14)
0% to 5% (11)
-5% to 0% (12)
Below -5% (4)
Not Reported (3)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
Some of Wisconsin's Largest Employment Gains Are in Information Technology
31 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Naics Industry Title
Annual
2012
2009-2012
Growth
212 Mining (except Oil and Gas) 2,654 16.5%
5112 Software Publishers 8,813 39.7%
518 Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services 8,156 9.1%
551 Management of Companies and Enterprises 52,752 17.5%
5415 Computer systems design and related services 17,102 21.1%
5416 Management and technical consulting services 11,164 8.8%
561 Administrative and Support Services 133,323 19.9%
5613 Employment services 61,124 46.1%
561320 Temporary help services 53,451 47.6%
5614 Business support services 15,959 11.4%
Pensions and OPEB
• Wisconsin has fully funded its pension system and has tackled its OPEB costs
32
Wisconsin Rated Solid Performer on Pension Funding
33
Pension Funding RankingsPew Center f or the States
Solid Perf ormer (11)
Needs Improv ement (7)
Serious Concerns (32)
Source: Pew Center on the States, "The Widening Gap Update"
Wisconsin Also Rated Solid Performer on OPEB Funding
34
OPEB Funding RatingsPew Center for the States
Solid Performer (10)
Needs Improvement (16)
Serious Concerns (22)
No Data (2)
Source: Pew Center on the States, "The Widening Gap Update"
Wisconsin Among Select Few States Successfully Managing Both Pension & OPEB Funding
35
Combined Ratings: Pension & OPEB
Pew Center for the States
Solid Performer Both (2)
Solid Performer Pension (6)
Solid Performer OPEB (5)
Serious Concerns Pension (15)
Serious Concerns OPEB (7)
Serious Conerns Both (13)
Needs Improvement In One Measure (2)
Source: Pew Center on the States, "The Widening Gap Update"
Wisconsin Economic Outlook
• Wisconsin employment projected to grow steadily
• Wisconsin income growth will strengthen
36
Employment Outlook Wisconsin Will Gain Jobs Through 2016
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
37 Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Winter 2014 Outlook
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Will Continue to Grow
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment in Thousands
38 Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Winter 2014 Outlook
Construction Recovery Will Continue
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wisconsin Construction Employment
39 Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Winter 2014 Outlook
Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Will Stay Below the US Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent of Workforce Unemployed
US
Wisconsin
40 Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Winter 2014 Outlook
Income Outlook Wisconsin Income Growth Will Strengthen Through 2016
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percent Change Over Prior Year
41 Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Winter 2014 Outlook
Thank You
42
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